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Cowen has failed us!
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At this stage we have seen enough of Brian Cowen‘s handling of the current crisis to make a call on his leadership skills. Unfortunately for him, but more to the point for us, he has failed quite miserably.
Cowen got off to a wobbly start. After he became Taoiseach, he immediately faced the Lisbon vote. He took an immediate political hit when the referendum proposal failed. It could be argued that Cowen’s Lisbon campaign was already badly compromised by Bertie’s long good bye and endless tribunal appearances. So Cowen perhaps got the benefit of the doubt. In any case, Cowen was still walking tall after the incredibly turn around in the Fianna Fáil election campaign in 2007 which he is largely credited for. (The campaign looked like it was going to implode over anomalies in Bertie’s evidence, but Cowen was senior among those who grabbed the campaign – and Bertie – by the scruff of the neck and hauled it back on track).
It is often said that Cowen’s first act was to reshuffle the cabinet and that even there he lacked imagination. That is true – his choice of Tánaiste in particular was astounding and is bound to keep on hurting him. But even so, it could hardly be said that Cowen picked a few dummies for the top jobs from a sea of talent! In reality, he had slim pickings.
When the financial and economic crisis struck, however, Cowen seemed unable to get the measure of it. He seemed cast onto the angry waves and for the most part since has come across as completely adrift. As the crisis deepened, he and his government continued to underestimate the depth of Ireland’s financial and economic troubles. It is true that the financial collapse was not their doing and took the international community by surprise. Lenihan, like everyone else had to engage in – and is still in the thick of – a fire fight. But the economic and fiscal crisis is different: that should have been seen earlier.
More to the point: it was seen earlier. Even in July the government saw fit to have the mini-budget. But Cowen set us on a course then which would see the same mistake repeated: doing too little too late.
It is not clear to me whether Cowen was in denial until recently about the extent of he problem in the economy or if he simply lacked the courage and nature to rise to the occasion by taking very bold steps early. In any case, nothing he has done has signalled that he is in command.
Cowen has not shown some of the essential traits of a leader who can take his people through a deep crisis. The first issue, as I mentioned, was that he didn’t seem capable of quickly comprehending the nature of the crunch. Great leaders have a sixth sense, a sharp acumen that allows them to feel the nature of the crisis as or before it happens. No so for Cowen. If there was one person in Ireland who should have known that our tax base was chronically unbalanced for a property shock it should have been the man who had just spent three years in charge of finance.
Cowen also fails another test. When he finally did see the crisis for what it was, he lacked the depth to draw up a strategy. When the figures pointed Cowen towards the abyss, he shrunk. He may have felt intimidated by the sheer extent of the problem, or he may have been unable to get the measure of it. Either way, he has not given the impression he is drafting a grand strategy that, while flexible in terms of tactics because circumstances will change, charts a plausible course towards recovery.
There is probably a good reason why Cowen has not come up with such a strategy. In order to think about the kind of things that will get us through the crisis, we need to think about what kind of country we want afterward. That will require a dramatic re-alignment of Irish fiscal life, and Cowen is among those who lead us into the terrible place we are now. He was also in the cabinet which saw Charlie McCreevy devastate our tax base and prime pump the property bubble. Cowen would now need the courage to turn his back on that legacy and call a (hole digging) spade a spade.
On another crucial level Cowen has failed: communication. He simply hasn’t been present. Perhaps bereft of a strategy he feels he has nothing to say directly to the people. But that is probably not the reason. He can talk with passion about pulling together and taking action, even if he lacks a plan. Yet he doesn’t address the nation. When he talk at all it only happens by chance as it were – at a talk with the Dublin chamber of commerce or the like. He should take a leaf out of Roosevelt’s book. Franklin D Roosevelt took over in the Great Depression. Apart from being obsessed about discovering the causes and generating a grand strategy, Roosevelt was determined to make it clear to people what was required and what he was planning to do. In his famous radio broadcasts, called “fireside chats”, he spoke directly to the nation about how the process was developing. It is clear that Obama too speaks directly to his people. Cowen however, is only seen bickering in the Dáil or on the steps of some conference when he runs into the press. He needs to be out front in a crisis like this.
And finally Cowen falls on another hurdle. He doesn’t display a great sense of political acumen: he completely misread the way the budget would be received, and his credibility was repeatedly damaged by a series of rollbacks such as the over 70s. On the recent levy again he failed to read the anger and failed to ensure that the cut would be equitable. He also failed to give a sense of leadership by example.
Cowen could have made great gains in terms of support if he had made some radical announcements, perhaps cutting the number of junior ministers, deeper cuts in TD and ministerial salaries, a direct promise to the people that we would pursue all wrong doing or illegal acts in the banks and build a world class culture of corporate governance (he left this to the Greens to say, why?), he could have announced in parallel with the public sector levy that, while the commission in taxation has not yet finished, the government promises to rebalance the whole tax base, and he could have said that during the celtic tiger we strayed off the path in terms of equality and fairness and that for the lower paid, any gains were ephemeral, but that now we will start afresh and create a fair society. But Cowen could never bring himself to say that.
He left those grand statements to others, such as Eamon Gilmore, who has scored exceptionally well in the latest poll while Cowen flounders. No, definitely not rising to the occasion Mr Cowen; not the leader we need now in a time of crisis.
I somehow feel that Brian Cowen has a modicum of decency in him and, if so, he must feel very uncomfortable pretending that ‘the people’ are Fianna Fail’s #1 priority.
Read these for the past few months – http://debates.oireachtas.ie/Main.aspx
Are you sure you want to vote out FF?
FG and Labour are a disgrace to the Dáil proceedings. They don’t show you this on the RTE News or the Irish Times.
Paul,
Absolutely correct about the dearth of alternatives. Certainly no Great potential leader has emerged. I think Eamon Gilmore is probably the best party leader at the momeny, I’d say the polls are a fair measure there. That is not to say that either he or his party have been hugely impressive. But they certainyl have been better than the utterly atrocious, desperate, pathetic Enda Kenny.
On the radio this morning Kenny called for a general election. He said the government wasn’t nearly on top of the fiscal situation – yet when pressed which taxes he’d raise he said he wasn’t going into specifics! What? He’s had all this time and the serenity of opposition to compose and present an alternative and he has nothing to say. Astounding. Then he said the cuts in public service pay weren’t enough. Right Enda, so what cuts would you make then? Oh, I cannot go into specifics here! Sad. Very sad. He calls for an election but isn’t prepared to outline an details of his alternative. God bless us and save us all.
Has he ever succeeded at anything in his political career? As Minister for Labour he coasted along under the radar only willing to stick his head up when surrounded by fellow FF fanatics at the Ard Fheis and in those 2 minutes of madness he nearly brought down the government. As minister for transportation, communications and energy he coasted along refusing to make any significant decisions and left our transportation, communications and energy infrastructure largely as was. Certainly he did nothing to move Ireland into the 21st century and the desperately needed motorway, phone and mobile upgrades were left to subsequent ministers. Renewalable energy sources were not even considered.
His 2 years as Minister for Health were a time of cuts, shortages and strikes until he was eventually a broken man babbling about Angola and had to be moved to Foreign Affairs (at best a sideways move but in reality a demotion).
His only qualification for the Foreign Affairs brief seems to have been the previous Angola comment. He likes to take credit for the Northern Ireland Peace negotiations (which in reality were stalled throughout his time in office), a place on the UN security council (when he rolled over and supported the illegal invasion of Iraq), the EU presidency (which we were getting anyway because of the rotation system and where Bertie had to step in and take over key negotiations on expansion etc).
He got Finance when Bertie decided to banish McCreevy into exile and needed someone who would not be a threat. During his time in Finance he was constantly warned that he needed to take action to curb spending and the property bubble. Instead he opted to buy another 5 years in power with a series of giveaway budgets (that have bankrupted the government) and further expanded the property bubble (so as to bankrupt the citizens). He stood against calls for increased regulation and thus fostered a corrupt banking culture. The only thing that can be said of the man is there is no evidence that he benefited from this but this is more likely because he did not have the intelligence or the sobriety to work out how to get his share.
His time as Taoiseach has been a political and economic disaster. Our place in Europe has been destroyed because he couldn’t be bothered to put any effort into the Lisbon campaign. Our economy has collapsed as the great finance minister has been exposed as a bluffer. Social partnership is dead becaust the great negotiator has turned out to be the great dictator.
His time as leader of Fianna Fail has seen the party fall to third place and looking over their shoulders at Sinn Fein. The party is looking at total annihilation in the local and European elections and the only reason the backbenchers have not moved to oust him is because they can’t risk a general election where up to 50 of them could lose their seats. As time ticks by and the next election comes closer we will see Fianna Fail collapse into outright civil war.
If ability to down pints (which has replaced Terry Keane as the secret everyone knows) was a key performance target for a TD, Minister and Taoiseach then he would be a success. In everything else the man is clearly a failure.
Tomaltach,
On your charge sheet against Cowen – poor political judgement, failure/inability to grasp measure of crisis, repeating the same mistakes, in denial, lacking courage, lack of leadership traits required in a crisis, no communication skills beyond bickering and bellowing ability, lack of political acumen, anti-populist – are you sure you haven’t left anything out?
If I were asked to draw up a similar chargesheet, I might limit it to two items : a massive blindspot when it comes to Fianna Fail and its traditional ‘values’ as somehow capable of being reinvented and successfully applied to a 21st century Ireland and lack of self-confidence in a leadership role. Cast the man into a crisis and all the rest will follow, as it has. His last chance comes this weekend – if he loses the confidence of his own Ard Fheis, if he fails to inspire in his leadership address, then it’s over.
Incidentally, the Irish Independent poll this morning contains one priceless little nugget of information – there isn’t much confidence out there in the ability of ANY of our current leaders to lead us out of this crisis. Remarkably, given the rest of the poll, Cowen still manages to outscore Kenny: Cowen 26%, Kenny 21%, Gilmore 29%.
Gilmore’s high rating in this aspect of the opinion poll is all the more bizarre given the fact that of the three leaders, Gilmore and his party have deliberately adopted a totally populist position on the crisis from the outset, have opposed any and all measures proposed by the government, or anyone else, to deal with it and have set out no viable policy alternatives whatsoever beyond a continuation of high levels of public spending eg. commitment to universal free health care and free third level education irrespective of individual means, no public service reforms or pay restraint of any kind, and so on. But then ritual and vociferous condemnations of Fianna Fail and all its works goes down well with an angry, frightened electorate, at least for the time being. Kenny – in reality the only ‘alternative Taoiseach’ in waiting – scores worst. As you point out, his performance on radio this morning would hardly do much to boost public confidence in his leadership capabilities.
As for God blessing and saving us all, he’s gone AWOL.
I agree. The only addition I would make is that Fianna Fail policy has been consistent in supporting the wealthy and creating poverty for workers since the ousting of Charles Haughey whom I would consider to be the Saddam Hussein of Irish politics (hated by all commentators in the media and those who wanted the country to become an American colony, “closer to Boston than Berlin”) It is no wonder then that we are suffering from the American disease, a property boom, corruption in financial institutions, low wages and job insecurity.
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