I Predict a Riot, Tax Revenue out again

It is a long running line ‘tax revenues were off predictions’. For good or bad tax revenues repeatedly failed to conform to targets and expectations. On the way up property inflation yielded a massive boon to the exchequer and fuelled increases in state spending and shrinking of the tax base. On the way down – all hell broke loose. Fall off in the bubbles like property and CGT had knock on effects on jobs and income tax.

I am surprised there isn’t a book open on the spread between prediction and actuality to be honest. Today was another one for the marker, tax revenue is now €4.3bn behind target. It is baffling how out of kilter some of the assumptions can be.