This could be the makings of Brian Cowen

Although it might not look like it now Brian Cowen has the chance to become a legend. On his own lunch box anyway, The EU is in crisis and not the crisis that is headlining today. But a crisis that has been building up for the last 15 years.

Eurobaramoter is the EU polling agency to find out what people think of the EU and one fact that comes from it. Is that people across Europe are gradually beginning to dislike the EU. Back in 1991 71% of people in the EU thought that EU membership was a good thing. Now it is 58%. Funnily enough Ireland has the third highest positive response to that question with 74% saying it is positive. (The Dutch and Luxembourgers are higher.) Europe is slowly losing the people. The response to this seems to be belligerence.

In many ways peoples apathy and distance from Europe is the cause of peoples apathy and distance from Europe. People in Europe don’t vote in general elections based on a parties European policy. They vote on domestic issues. Parties are given free rain to do what they want not what the people want to do in Europe. After the rejection of the EU constitution in France and Holland the Lisbon treat was created to avoid referendums.But how long can this apathy last. Could the European elections soon herald a boost for euro sceptics?

The EU is asking Brian Cowen why this happened and what to do about it. This offers a opportunity. There seems to be an attempt by many of the pro-EU people in the media to spin it as Irish people voting against Abortion. As if Abortion was the main issue in this campaign. The polling in the Irish Times tells us alot.

The largest 2 blocks of voting no were Not knowing what it was about, and the loss of power( add big countries have to much power to this list). Together they account for 62% of the No. That is almost 32% of the people who voted. While spinning the vote as to do with Abortion helps reinforce some peoples opinion that only non-decent people vote to no to EU treaties.

It will be interesting to see if the rest of Europe pushes on with the EU treaty. While some are calling for the eviction of Ireland from the EU. Annegrethe Rasmussen in the Danish Information paper. (Translated with google translator) said

The Irish have now said no twice in the same decade to the EU treaty. It might be reasonable to ask them whether they would not choose a looser ties to the European Union such as. Norway or Switzerland.

Yes we the people have vote no to the last 2 treaties but we are the only nation to have voted on the last two treaties. 4 nations got to vote on the constitution Spain, Luxembourg, France and Holland. Did people call for France and Holland to be excluded from the EU? No of course not. So why is Ireland different? In many ways that question answers why Irish people voted no. The Irish feel vulnerable to being marginalised, seen ignorable by much of the rest of Europe the reaction of the Sarkozy and Merkel to plough on regardless even though the rejection by the French and the Dutch resulted in the stopping of the process.

But this gets away from my point and the making of Brian Cowen. The Lisbon Treaty is not the EU and the EU is not the Lisbon Treaty. A vote against the Lisbon Treaty is not a vote against the EU. Governments have worked hard on creating the Lisbon Treaty and rather then consider the idea of coming up with a treaty that could pass referendums in every country they would rather drop Ireland. This is where Cowen can come in.

The leaders of Europe are going to ask him what can be done to solve this crisis and he can say “a better treaty” and propose foundations of Europe that can be supported by the people. We have discussed some alternatives before. Cowen could be the guy who creates a new better Europe. Whether or not they listen is of course another thing and whether or not Cowen can come up with something good remains to be seen. .