Comments on: Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll

By: Cian

Cian — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 12:52:01 +0000

Jer, while Simon has a point, getting out the vote will always be key to a referendum result. Suggestions that some of those who voted in the Lisbon poll were not typical election voters should be seen in this light. Having said that a 1% gain is nothing to shout about. Certainly not if you just won 25% of the electorate to your argument.

Also I think the transfer problem will continue to diminish.the electorate will rightly ask what the point is in voting FG if they are just FF under another name

That has been written many times before too FT but has not – yet – come to pass. I did think it was interesting to hear the difference in approach to the fallout between Kenny and Gilmore. Kenny keeping close to the FF line but Gilmore seeing that much of his “core” vote demands more critical engagement. I wonder if it will continue.

By: Future Taoiseach

Future Taoiseach — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 12:36:51 +0000

The poll also shows around 90% say they understood the issues in the treaty, contrary to the claims of the elites that we didn’t. FG’s decline has to be seen in the context of them refusing to oppose which is what Opposition is supposed to be about. If they persist on this cosy-consensus on Europe and on certain other issues with FF then the electorate will rightly ask what the point is in voting FG if they are just FF under another name. Offer the voters something different. Lisbon was a perfect opportunity to do so but instead they rolled over for FF as usual.

By: Simon

Simon — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 12:16:13 +0000

Bye bye Enda.
Also Jer 1% is in the margin of error of 3%

By: Jer

Jer — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 12:15:30 +0000

Cian,
while Sinn Fein didnt jump 5 points i dont think they will be unhappy. a smaller jump has greater chances of being maintained. What i think will be of much greater satisfactino is figures from the referendum where sinn fein strongholds got out strong no votes and if i recall correctly some higher than expected turnouts. a traditional weakness of the party would have been strong support amongst those least likely to vote. if the lisbon referendum builds a get out and vote mindset in those areas you would be looking at a bigger boost for sinn fein than these polls would suggest. of course we wont know until the locals and the europeans next year but if the armchair supporters get up and take a walk to the polling station that would be a big boost to the party. Also I think the transfer problem will continue to diminish.