Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll
Read more about: Bertie Ahern Resigns, Democracy, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Government, Green Party, Irish Election, Irish Politics, Labour Party, Lisbon Treaty, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Referenda, Sinn Féin, Socialist Party 
The first poll after the Lisbon result comes with little by way of surprise. The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll finds the Irish electorate looks unlikely to have engaged in a mass volte face with regard to the major parties after Lisbon.
Fianna Fail 40% (unchanged)
Fine Gael 25% (-3)
Labour 10% (unchanged)
Green Party 7% (+2)
Sinn Fein 10% (+1)
Ind (4%)
PD (2%)
At the a general election normal service would be resumed and Cowen would be elected Taoiseach – with help from somewhere. It is instructive in how wary we should be in reading whatever we want from Referednda results. As we saw from the Eurobarometer poll the reasons Irish people voted no were functions of real or perceived issues with Europe and the economy.
Yet in terms of those domestic issues – such as farming and fishing, building downturn, economic slowdown, health provision – little relation appears to have been made between government and these parties. So what? Well the so what is that Fine Gael can lose support in a variety of polls since the beginning of the campaign while Labour remain static in this poll (though do better in TNS/MRBI).
The opposition have their work cut out to convert any anti-European sentiment, especially where it is borne out of national distress, into anti-government sentiment. Kenny has seen momentum turn against him and I would wager that a succession of polls in the low 20% range would see an internal push against him, even before the Local Elections but especially afterwards.
However, despite the relatively strong poll showing by the individual government parties, under half of all voters (47 per cent) say they are satisfied with the performance of the government.
Some 53 per cent say they are dissatisfied. Again, the result of the Lisbon referendum seems to have had little impact on the level of satisfaction with the government. Though this question has not formed part of the Sunday Business Post/ Red C research in the past, an identical question posed by an Irish Times/MRBI survey in mid-May found satisfaction with the government was running at a the same level – 48 per cent.
So it is as if Lisbon never happened, a reflection on the parochial nature of domestic politics and a clear insight into where it was lost. Not in abortion or conscription but in the lack of a local narrative that clicked with people. On a broader point there is dissatisfaction but with a long break coming up it will be the key time for Fine Gael and Labour to come up with a strategy. Local election success is no guarantee of general election success but it is a star.
Sinn Fein didn’t get the bounce they might have hoped for though 10% is a recovery of sorts. They will have benefitted more in the long term from the chance to raise profile and reintroduce Mary Lou in a competent and victorious setting. The renewed consensus that she is in with a shout for her seat should guarantee her decent airtime as the Lisbon fallout unfolds and augment any electoral strategy for next year but the breakthrough has not come yet.
If anything the rise for the Green Party shows that sitting on the fence, reincarnating your party, and not getting covered in EU mud is something the electorate like. Perhaps we just wanted to be left alone after the drama of last May and the 12 months in between.
Edit: to include Alan Shatter’s response:
A Fine Gael frontbencher says he thinks his party may have suffered for siding with the Government in the run up to the Lisbon treaty referendum.
…
Deputy Shatter says taking a bi-partisan approach did not do his party any favours.
Cian,
while Sinn Fein didnt jump 5 points i dont think they will be unhappy. a smaller jump has greater chances of being maintained. What i think will be of much greater satisfactino is figures from the referendum where sinn fein strongholds got out strong no votes and if i recall correctly some higher than expected turnouts. a traditional weakness of the party would have been strong support amongst those least likely to vote. if the lisbon referendum builds a get out and vote mindset in those areas you would be looking at a bigger boost for sinn fein than these polls would suggest. of course we wont know until the locals and the europeans next year but if the armchair supporters get up and take a walk to the polling station that would be a big boost to the party. Also I think the transfer problem will continue to diminish.
Bye bye Enda.
Also Jer 1% is in the margin of error of 3%
The poll also shows around 90% say they understood the issues in the treaty, contrary to the claims of the elites that we didn’t. FG’s decline has to be seen in the context of them refusing to oppose which is what Opposition is supposed to be about. If they persist on this cosy-consensus on Europe and on certain other issues with FF then the electorate will rightly ask what the point is in voting FG if they are just FF under another name. Offer the voters something different. Lisbon was a perfect opportunity to do so but instead they rolled over for FF as usual.
Jer, while Simon has a point, getting out the vote will always be key to a referendum result. Suggestions that some of those who voted in the Lisbon poll were not typical election voters should be seen in this light. Having said that a 1% gain is nothing to shout about. Certainly not if you just won 25% of the electorate to your argument.
Also I think the transfer problem will continue to diminish.the electorate will rightly ask what the point is in voting FG if they are just FF under another name
That has been written many times before too FT but has not – yet – come to pass. I did think it was interesting to hear the difference in approach to the fallout between Kenny and Gilmore. Kenny keeping close to the FF line but Gilmore seeing that much of his “core” vote demands more critical engagement. I wonder if it will continue.