Ciaran Cannon Elected Leader of Progressive Democrats

By 50% + to 49% +

Congratulations to Ciaran Cannon on a personal level but asking the obvious question but how did the votes really play out? Because that is what will determine if the party unites behind him or goes its separate ways. I acknowledge that I’m guessing here but if I’m wrong about one area then it has a knock on for the others.

Baseline information that we know at this stage.
Oireachtas members 40% – I think we’re guessing a 2:2 split here
Cllrs and senior figures 30% – we were told that the cllr were breaking for Cannon 2:1
Party members 30% which would imply the membership broke for O’Malley 2:1

Below I outline my possibilities of how it happened

Alternative scenarios
Alternative A
Change in the Oireachtas members 40% – I can’t see Grealish or Cannon voting for anyone other than Cannon so the only other possible outcome here is 3:1 for Cannon with Harney supporting him. Which means that O’Malley just have won both the membership and cllrs vote by almost 2:1 to come as close as she did. Which would be a major turn up and a problem for the party if those lower in the political pyramid on whom the party depends had chosen one person but it was undone by the sitting leader and minister. I would rate this option as unlikely.

Alternative B
Oireachtas members 40% – I think we’re guessing a 2:2 split here
Cllrs and senior figures 30% – we were told that the cllrs etc were breaking for Cannon 2:1, but maybe that didn’t happen as was suggested and he just won convincingly more here than O’Malley did, but not 2:1. However -
Party members 30% – that still implies O’Malley won almost equally more of the membership. And they are the ones relied on canvass leaflet drop etc, will those that supported O’Malley come out if they suspect that their cllr went the other way?

B is the more likely scenario in my view

Alternative C
Oireachtas members 40% – I think we’re guessing a 2:2 split here
Cllrs and senior figures 30% – we were told that the cllrs were breaking for Cannon 2:1, but maybe that didn’t happen as was suggested and in fact was a very even split.
Party members 30% and that means we almost have to have a very even split in the membership.

C is a less likely scenario in my view than B but marginally so. But it would still leave on a local level the same problem as B but to a lesser degree, the mindset would be – I as member voted for O’Malley but I suspect/believe/feel it my water that my councillor voted the other way and I’m not so inclined to help him out as a result. With such a reduced membership this could be fatal for the chances of many of the cllrs in terms of mobilising over the next 12 months.

Alternative D
Oireachtas members 40% – I think we’re guessing a 2:2 split here
Cllrs and senior figures 30% – we were told that the cllrs were breaking for Cannon 2:1, but maybe that didn’t happen as was suggested and in fact it was all nonsense and O’Malley romped home amongst the cllrs etc. Some of whom may now decide the jig is up and depart the scene between now and 2009 locals
Party members 30% but that means that Cannon won the membership convincingly. And that if cllrs depart he has eager members ready to enter the battle next year.

Alternative D is the most hopeful one for the PDs but it seems bar far the the most unlikely.

I’m open to people giving alternative options but can they relate them to how the numbers played out in the electoral colleges?