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The Presidency of the Commission and the 2009 Elections
Read more about: Europe, Irish Politics, Referenda 
One of the more interesting aspects of the Lisbon Treaty is the manner in which the President of the Commission will be chosen. Under Article 9, the President of the Commission is to be chosen with due respect to the result of the European parliamentary elections;
7. Taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose to the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members. If he does not obtain the required majority, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall within one month propose a new candidate who shall be elected by the European Parliament following the same procedure.
As is highlighted by Ralf Grahn this will have the potential to make 2009 European Elections interesting if the various European political parties agree in advance to nominate someone. This has already begun to an extent with the Liberals announcing that they will run a common candidate for this position, and hopefully this will be followed by the EPP and PES.
If followed through by the other political parties, this will be a hugely positive step as Europe’s citizens will be able to directly associate who they vote for in their own country with whoever is ultimately chosen as the head of the commission. At this stage, Barrosso appears to be wanted to do a second stint, and would probably have little difficulty in getting EPP support for that.
However, that is neither here nor there. What is potentially interesting is what will happen in the country where the candidate comes from. Will people vote on ideological lines and their normal political preference, or will they vote for their national candidate to get the top job?
For example, lets say if the Liberals were to announce that they would be seeking the Presidency of the Commission for Pat Cox. Would that make you more likely to vote for the PDs in the ’09 elections?
Possibly the Liberals are a poor example, as it is unlikely that their candidate would get the job, but lets say the EPP were to run John Bruton, or the Socialists, Mary Robinson? Would people vote Fine Gael or Labour to give an Irish person the top job, or would they continue to vote for their local Fianna Fáil, Green or independent candidate – and hinder an Irish person getting the job?
An interesting question, one which will be telling as to how integrated European politics has become and will become. It also has the potential to further marginalise parties who opt out (like the Tories), or are excluded from the major groupings (a la Fianna Fáil).
This has also interesting knock on effects for Aherns candidacy – a candidacy mooted in the IHT recently this week so one we should look at seriously.
I wonder though will the Parliamentary parties really have that much of a say in choosing a candidate and whether the Council will simply elbow its favoured candidate through?
people will vote for the country europe is still nationalistic. just look at the eurovision.
Somehow I am doubting the wisdom of working off assumptions on the Parliamentary elections based on the voting trends in Eurovision.
With regard to Bertie’s candidacy -I cannot see how he can be seen as a runner for the Commission job irrespective of what the IHT say. Possibly, he may emerge as a compromise candidate for the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, but only if there is a serious logjam. There are stronger candidates there, and it would be doubtful if Europe will be well served by having another leading institutional figure with questions to answer.
Whatever about that, the Commission Presidency will have to be with strong PES or the EPP support otherwise you are making a mockery of the ‘democratization’ of the Commission which these measure is trying to achieve. The MEPs of those groups are not lobby fodder who will be forced to do what the Council of Ministers say. In particular, the dynamic of the election may play a role if PES and the EPP following the ELDR example.