Comments on: Ciaran Cannon and Fiona O’Malley to Contest Progressive Democrat Leadership

By: Irish Election » New Progressive Democrat Leader In Situ by April 16

Irish Election » New Progressive Democrat Leader In Situ by April 16 — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 09:19:37 +0000

[...] Progressive Democrat’s new leader should be in office in little under two months time, at present it [...]

By: Dan Sullivan

Dan Sullivan — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 23:49:48 +0000

I don’t think the PDs can win any of the Euro seats but the media coverage from the Euros is more beneficial to a future Dail candidate. Imagine if the PDs had run Cannon in C/U, sorry Whest, how much better he could have done in Galway East. Running O’Malley in South might give her some chance in Limerick City.

By: Cian

Cian — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 17:15:06 +0000

Ah I see what you mean and right now I would agree with you. CAnnon has no profile to speak of and his media performances thus far suggest a rather steep learning curve if he is to avoid the path of stumbling towards a merger. The alternative there is to run a ‘dual-leadership’ where Harney slowly brings him along in media terms while he focuses on organisation and candidates. That is a risky strategy however as it gives mixed signals and is that last thing the PDs need.

O’Malley has a name and a profile, its not huge but still better than Cannon’s so your point is one i would go along with in that sense.

Perhaps in electoral terms a focus on seats they can win would be a winner all round-the feel good of achieving targets and the pragmatic bit of distributing resources. Do you reckon they could win any Euro seat since the redrawing?

Finally the other big point is which seat does the new leader target? Does O Malley look for a euro seat? Which constituency if not? Similar point for Cannon?

By: Irish Election » Where do they go now.

Irish Election » Where do they go now. — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 15:17:53 +0000

[...] social and economic. The PD’s have always been stronger on the latter then the former and as Cian points out much of their demise was caused by their playing away from home base. But this is the area where the new [...]

By: Dan Sullivan

Dan Sullivan — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 12:59:57 +0000

WBS, that would be kind of it. Cian, I’m not stating that Cannon’s intent would be simply to manage a process of merger. Rather that he would be less able to mark the party out as being sufficiently distinctive nationally and so that merger would be the eventual outcome. If Cannon wins then the party and in particular the local reps and their supporters have decided to stabilise and hold on for the locals and then for them to do as best a deal as it can in merging. If they go with Fiona or someone else then they are up for giving it a final lash and going for broke.

For example with Cannon I suspect they will concentrate on the locals and avoid the Euros, with O’Malley or someone else they should target the Euros to build profiles in target constituencies and also to ensure they can get their message out there. If they avoid the Euros they have nothing to say.

I could be getting both of them complete wrong but I’m purely working off what I’ve seen of them in coverage and what they’ve said. I’ve no intimate knowledge of either one.

By: Cian

Cian — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 23:25:13 +0000

I would think WBS that their merit and mettle needs to be fully tested before the party decides. If they are to have any success the PDs should prevent this turning on factions and more on open debate.

I don’t think that is as clear cut Dan, unless he gets some sort of mandate for it Cannon may well not be able to merge with FF before getting the shove. I agree though that in this case O Malley may win out on the risk/return calculation.

IF she does become leader-where does she move at the next election? If Cannon wins, same question

By: WorldbyStorm

WorldbyStorm — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 22:13:47 +0000

So in a way Dan you’re saying that with F O’M they have some slight chance of continued independent (!) existence but without her they have none? Or am I reading you wrong?

By: Dan Sullivan

Dan Sullivan — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 12:54:24 +0000

I think that the PD membership should look to have at least one other candidate come from the “lower” levels, I would bypass the councillors as far too many are purely vote fodder. Perhaps even more than one should come forward to articulate a real policy discussion and to ensure that the campaigns of the senators is not simply some personality based political version of PD idol.

For my own money I would say that Cannon would be candidate for eventual merger into FF though a steady (some might say dead) hand on the tiller while O’Malley presents the greater risk (and what a risk!)but she also offers the greater opportunity. That is in part why I say that someone with vision, ambition, and a sense of the work involved from the membership should have a go.

And on just 2 Dail seats with one certain retirement at the next election, this is no time for caution. In some games you have to risk it all on one hand in order to get back in contention.

By: WorldbyStorm

WorldbyStorm — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 01:05:35 +0000

Very interesting points. Cannon and O’Malley are not entirely tested. I wonder which, if either, will get it. My sense is it would have to be one of them.