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Irish Election Political Performance Index Janurary
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We got 308 responses to this months survey. And the results can be seen in the Graphs below. When looking at the percentage changes it must be noted that last months survey had less responses. I have only done a very quick calcullation of the error and I would say it is around +-3%. If anyone would like to do a proper analysis. Email me thedossingtimes at gmail.com and I can can send you on the data I have. The top and bottom are split for reasons of space.
Richard Bruton 3.280277
Eamon Gilmore 3.247458
Brian Lenihan 3.204152
James Reilly 3.157143
Joan Burton 2.948276
Brian Cowen 2.925926
Dermot Ahern 2.844828
Eamon Ryan 2.767123
Brian Hayes 2.725352
Jan O’Sullivan 2.707747
John Gormley 2.657807
Enda Kenny 2.601329
Mary Harney 2.323333
Mary Hanafin 2.305085
Caoimhgh O’ Caolain 2.282759
Bertie Ahern 1.866667
More Graph Fun and the numbers below fold.
Leaders of 5 of the 6 Dail parties take up 5 of the bottom 6 places.
Nothing new in Bertie and Mary. They are the leaders of government presiding over a disaster so it’s natural that they are binned. Also neither of them are going to fight the next election so they stopped worrying about looking popular 6 months ago (although the past 6 months mean the only chance Bertie of getting into the Park now is if they build the replacement for Mountjoy there)
But the really stunning finding is the leader of the opposition to be in the bottom 5 while the government seems to be doing everything possible to make him seem good. Most worrying for Kenny is that his deputy is top. For all the tribunal revelations and economic disasters I think Kenny will be gone before Bertie.
Fianna Fail need Bertie to stay as long as possible so when the time is right (about 6 months before the election) they can overthrow him in a fashion that makes it look like he is to blame for all the ills of the country and Cowen (or whoever) is coming to save the day. It won’t happen more than 6 months before the election because Cowen won’t want to make the mistake of Gordon Brown and wait longer than his honeymoon halo lasts.
Meanwhile Fine Gael have already lost one election because the electorate rejected Enda Kenny. His credibility is shot to pieces. Richard Bruton needs time to get the people used to his leadership abilities (that’s the advantage of being a senior minister like Cowen). He needs time to show the public that he is a serious politician for serious times.
If a newspaper publishes a poll that reflects these findings then Kenny will be gone a month later.
love the graphs, it will be great to get trends over the coming weeks.
I must say its very similar to election time where despite Bertie’s travails there is little appetite for the alternative. That is a good result for Lenihan too actually.
And flyer is absolutely right on that last point.
So just over 3 times as many people think Bertie Ahern is a gombeen than Brian Hayes, while each got 17 and 26 excellents. Perhaps there is a case for the over-liars to be removed?
well it also shows how some figures are very divisive.