Home is where the vote is… The Independent TDs in 2008

Reading Cian’s post on Irish Election I was in complete agreement with him as regards the overall analysis. For some Independents the deal with FF, so far, has reaped considerable dividends. They have essentially cemented themselves within a process whereby they can continue to draw down actual political achievements that resonate on the ground, with the minor irritation of finding themselves off-side with respect to broader ‘national’ political issues (that some of these are of the left with which some independents were identified but yet which appear to have had no resonance with the larger electorate is telling). Sure, beyond the confines of the constituencies there are those who will cry ‘sell-out’, but… importantly they are not members of their constituency organisation, nor more importantly again do they have the luxury of a vote in the constituencies.

And this dynamic is remarkable, because it parallels in microcosm that which the Green Party engaged in when it went into government with Fianna Fáil. Pragmatism on one side, that of Bertie Ahern, was met by an equal pragmatism on the other side by the Independents who were given the nod. That they comprised such a diverse group – politically speaking – is of interest as well. Hard to imagine Finian McGrath, Beverley Flynn and Michael Lowry being soul mates in any ordinary political universe, but that this seeming diversity reduced to a localism is hardly a surprise because, at base – and as Tony Gregory discovered as far back as the late 1970s – for the independent there is no universe beyond the confines of the constituency, or at least not one that is of any great importance (a discovery that – arguably – Joe Higgins also made in 2007… too late).

One might wonder is there truly a more heterogeneous coalition in Europe?

Cian suggests that he doesn’t:

…think McGrath has done anything immoral here in a strict sense, he signed up to do things like this a long time ago and his support should not come as a surprise, however his ability to exact a greater payment for doing what he had signed up to do does say something about the nature of political delivery and the man who sits at the top of government. Bertie has continually shown his priority for keeping as many as possible onside

Indeed although I don’t know if morality enters into the equation. There is a lot of nonsense talked about Independents in some sense being a blight upon our political system as if the votes that elected them are somehow less legitimate because they are directed towards the local rather than the national. I take a different view – while I’d prefer if national parties were predominant (as indeed they are) I think that anyone who can get elected is entirely legitimate and represents as poorly, or as well, the voters that got them there. Here we have an object lesson that disproves the old saw about ‘instability’ concerning Independents. Give them a deal that they can work with and they will, just as they did in the late 1940s and mid-1950s in the Inter Party governments.

As for drawing down funding that otherwise might not have been distributed to a constituency, and as has been noted our Independents do not represent constituencies that are the bleakest or most impoverished on the island, we see precisely the same dynamic in larger political formations – hence the cries for Ministers to represent one area or another. Everyone wants a Minister. And indeed, thinking of Tony Gregory, hence the lack of communication with him by Ahern. The very last thing a sitting Taoiseach would want is to have to disburse funding to a constituency rival (although, thinking about it perhaps Gregory should hold tight until Cowen or A.N.Other takes over when that particular pressure will ease).

Cian also notes that:

The decision to further sweeten McGrath to support Mary Harney only suggests that the old circle of Irish political life remains intact-we go from small numbers of independents to large ones and back again. The small numbers allows independents to exact big rewards for their support and the electorate respond by sending more in. Large numbers makes them unwieldy and impossible to deal with and thus they are culled from the Dail and replaced by party figures.

I sort of agree with this, but since 1997 I would suggest that we have seen a slow but clear legitimisation of Independents as political figures who are now factored very clearly into government formation in a way that they simply weren’t prior to that. The early deals with Healy-Rae which continued into the second Ahern government provided a sort of political cover which saw the large numbers return in 2002. That the sterling, but not entirely emphatic, efforts to achieve some coherence amongst Independents failed in the last Dáil was clearly a set back with only five returned. But return they did and note that Healy-Rae has now established a political dynasty – of sorts.

So it is no great prediction to argue that in 2012 we will most likely see more Independents (something that will have certain ramifications for Fine Gael in particular). Expect the cry of ‘all politics is local’ to be just that little bit louder then. Which conversely means that we should look to government formation then to be achieved by looking to the parties. Again, if I were the Green Party, or indeed Sinn Féin, I’d also be fairly confident that things might go well in 2012.

Which means that in effect 2007 to 2012 is something of halcyonic period for the Independents. It is unlikely that their influence will be so great as it was in the 1997 – 2007 period. But that they are now seen as far from the unstable loose cannons of yesteryear, that their demands are often much less than might be expected and that given the right circumstances they will row in with the governing coalitions on the most contentious of issues. That, conversely, might well provide some comfort for Fine Gael. And as for the left? The implications are profound. It was hoped in the previous Dáil that some Independents would be of a leftish hue. What we’ve seen is that localism trumps that too to no small degree. One wonders whether, as with the shift of the Green Party, that will lead to a greater degree of suspicion on the left as to the utility of alliances which involve Independents. One wonders too whether that will also lead to a push back to larger party structures. And finally, perhaps this is good news for already established leftish parties ready and willing to step into that area.