Comments on: Pressure Grows on Ahern After Final Day of Testimony at Mahon http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/ Coverage of Irish Politics, News and Current Affairs Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:43:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Gilmore Accuses Bertie Ahern of Lying | Irish Election http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56474 Gilmore Accuses Bertie Ahern of Lying | Irish Election Wed, 26 Sep 2007 15:10:19 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56474 [...] he doesn’t believe Ahern’s version of events on his finances as presented before the Mahon Tribunal. Gilmore put it to Ahern at leader’s questions, “I think your story at the tribunal was [...] [...] he doesn’t believe Ahern’s version of events on his finances as presented before the Mahon Tribunal. Gilmore put it to Ahern at leader’s questions, “I think your story at the tribunal was [...]

]]> By: P O'Neill http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56407 P O'Neill Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:58:54 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56407 Vincent Browne <a href="http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/opinion/2007/0926/1190324758281.html" rel="nofollow">explains</a>($) why the driving issue matters -- Celia says she only remembers because Bertie told her -- <em>Celia Larkin relied on the recollection of Bertie Ahern for her account of being driven to AIB on O'Connell Street in Dublin in January 1995 by Ahern, withdrawing IR£50,000, coming out of the bank and being driven back to Drumcondra by Bertie, where he lodged the money in his safe at St Luke's. Although, according to Celia, this memory was prompted by Bertie's recollection of what occurred, Bertie had no recollection at all of this at the tribunal</em> Vincent Browne explains($) why the driving issue matters — Celia says she only remembers because Bertie told her –

Celia Larkin relied on the recollection of Bertie Ahern for her account of being driven to AIB on O’Connell Street in Dublin in January 1995 by Ahern, withdrawing IR£50,000, coming out of the bank and being driven back to Drumcondra by Bertie, where he lodged the money in his safe at St Luke’s. Although, according to Celia, this memory was prompted by Bertie’s recollection of what occurred, Bertie had no recollection at all of this at the tribunal

]]> By: Dan Sullivan http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56390 Dan Sullivan Tue, 25 Sep 2007 18:59:36 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56390 The formula doesn't work? I better take back all the lead I bought so and get someone to take the philosophers stone off my hands. The formula doesn’t work? I better take back all the lead I bought so and get someone to take the philosophers stone off my hands.

]]> By: Tinyplanet » The Bert http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56378 Tinyplanet » The Bert Tue, 25 Sep 2007 12:32:04 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56378 [...] may face no-confidence motion. About time, given his performance at the Mahon [...] [...] may face no-confidence motion. About time, given his performance at the Mahon [...]

]]> By: Swords Guy http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56372 Swords Guy Tue, 25 Sep 2007 09:26:43 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56372 Cian, In your piece you say "Ahern admitted that the formula his team put forward as a way of arguing against the $45,000 allegation didn’t work out. This proves nothing on the allegation he took $45,000 except to keep it alive as a logical possibility." Surely the fall of the Ahern teams formula doesnt just leave the $45,000 allegation as a logical possiblity but as an virtual certainty. The following must be borne in mind: as the exchange rate at the time was ROUGHLY 2$ to 1£. The channce of the punt amount matching a $5000 increment is 2500/1.This increases by a factor of 50 when one looks at the pence amount.We are left therefore that there is only a 1 in 125,000 chance that this amount just happened to match the dollar conversion.This is the scenario we faced before the general election. Days after we were told that the banks own records further lenghthened the odds.Every other checked Monday showed Sterling transactions outweighing all others by a factor of three excect one : you guessed it the one when the money was lodged.So maybe the bank made a mistake. Ok so we'll do a quick (conservative)calculation on this possibility presuming the tribunal looked at 3 years worth of Mondays.This further increases the odds by a factor of approx 150.The odds are now a whooping 18,750,000 to 1.If it were DNA evidence Mr Ahern could be convicted beyond resonable doubt. The Tribunal of course does not have to seek findings beyond reasonable doubt but on the balance of probabilities.I further realise that my figures are a guide and not 100% accurate however they surely show that we and the Tribunal now have to regard the possibility that $45,000 was lodged as a certainty. Cian,
In your piece you say “Ahern admitted that the formula his team put forward as a way of arguing against the $45,000 allegation didn’t work out. This proves nothing on the allegation he took $45,000 except to keep it alive as a logical possibility.”
Surely the fall of the Ahern teams formula doesnt just leave the $45,000 allegation as a logical possiblity but as an virtual certainty.
The following must be borne in mind: as the exchange rate at the time was ROUGHLY 2$ to 1£. The channce of the punt amount matching a $5000 increment is 2500/1.This increases by a factor of 50 when one looks at the pence amount.We are left therefore that there is only a 1 in 125,000 chance that this amount just happened to match the dollar conversion.This is the scenario we faced before the general election.
Days after we were told that the banks own records further lenghthened the odds.Every other checked Monday showed Sterling transactions outweighing all others by a factor of three excect one : you guessed it the one when the money was lodged.So maybe the bank made a mistake.
Ok so we’ll do a quick (conservative)calculation on this possibility presuming the tribunal looked at 3 years worth of Mondays.This further increases the odds by a factor of approx 150.The odds are now a whooping 18,750,000 to 1.If it were DNA evidence Mr Ahern could be convicted beyond resonable doubt.
The Tribunal of course does not have to seek findings beyond reasonable doubt but on the balance of probabilities.I further realise that my figures are a guide and not 100% accurate however they surely show that we and the Tribunal now have to regard the possibility that $45,000 was lodged as a certainty.

]]> By: P O'Neill http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56322 P O'Neill Mon, 24 Sep 2007 21:52:23 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56322 I might remember if there was a briefcase full of cash and Celia Larkin in the car! But part of it is that Bertie now seems to have forgotten everything during this period. And the tribunal must be wondering why is Bertie now distancing himself even from Celia's antiseptic version of events. I might remember if there was a briefcase full of cash and Celia Larkin in the car! But part of it is that Bertie now seems to have forgotten everything during this period. And the tribunal must be wondering why is Bertie now distancing himself even from Celia’s antiseptic version of events.

]]> By: Simon http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56321 Simon Mon, 24 Sep 2007 21:41:39 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56321 P can you remember the second time you ever drove? It would also have been a rare period at the time when you actually drove P can you remember the second time you ever drove? It would also have been a rare period at the time when you actually drove

]]> By: P O'Neill http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56320 P O'Neill Mon, 24 Sep 2007 21:31:58 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56320 I think the driving thing is important. Remember this was the rare period when Bertie actually had to drive -- and if I remember right, someone once figured out that he didn't even have a licence during that period. Of itself of course it seems trivial but Mahon is piling up these details that Bertie should remember but can't. The indictment comes from his collective memory loss for that period, not one incident. I think the driving thing is important. Remember this was the rare period when Bertie actually had to drive — and if I remember right, someone once figured out that he didn’t even have a licence during that period. Of itself of course it seems trivial but Mahon is piling up these details that Bertie should remember but can’t. The indictment comes from his collective memory loss for that period, not one incident.

]]> By: Simon http://www.irishelection.com/2007/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/comment-page-1/#comment-56313 Simon Mon, 24 Sep 2007 19:41:57 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/09/pressure-grows-on-ahern-after-final-day-of-testimony-at-mahon/#comment-56313 who can remember if they drove someone or not a year ago alone let alone 13 years. Most of the inconsistencies profiled as shocking in the media are bloody silly. Seriously who remembers these details. Sure their are questions to answer but if the questions they are spending time on is who drove who then this is a collasal waste of time. who can remember if they drove someone or not a year ago alone let alone 13 years. Most of the inconsistencies profiled as shocking in the media are bloody silly. Seriously who remembers these details. Sure their are questions to answer but if the questions they are spending time on is who drove who then this is a collasal waste of time.

]]>