Gilmore Suggests Labour can ‘Bloom’

Eamon Gilmore was on Morning Ireland this morning talking of letting Labour “bloom” and maximising the potential of the team in Leinster House. When pushed on the Labour ‘brand’ he suggests that Labour needs to be renewed, asserting Labour values with confidence. Relay what they are saying in a modern way in the new Ireland, organise more effectively on the ground. Develop a new politics, not about packaging and selling Labour in a new way its about addressing problems of our society. In other words, he seems a little bemused by much media commentary and perhaps doesn’t agree fully with the policy criticism put forward by Stephen Collins and Shane Coleman.

He refused to be drawn on taxes though he did suggest people saw Labour as being negatively defined rather than aware of what the party stands for. They need to be able to talk to their ‘target voters on issues they feel strongly on’, via an ‘active campaigning party’ which is reintegrated into community politics. That final statement is to my mind the biggest signal that Gilmore seems to understand the task ahead of him.

Fianna Fail is the most effective vote-winner in the state. For a majority of elections since the beginning of the state they have been able to maintain a level of support which is unnatural in a PR system, delivering overall majority or close to it on nearly every occasion. The party has many tools with which it does this and many tactics which it employs at election time. Foremost among these however is its ability to get as many activists as possible working around the election cycle in tandem with the elected TD to ‘deliver’ to the local area. This is not simply visibility but the Fianna Fail brand has managed to garner the air of actual delivery.

There have been many studies of Irish voters, not least the RTE exit poll quoted by Gilmore in his RTE interview today but also the Irish Electoral studies undertaken by Michael Marsh and others, these make for consistent reading. The percentage of Irish voters that vote on local issues and decide based on which candidate is strongest on local issues stands at around 40%. That is nearly half of all potential votes being received on the back of the performance of the local organisation of Councillors, TDs and activists over the five years of government. Of course that leaves a further 60% who break down into deciding on party lines or in terms of national policy but that 40% is key to success.

That 40% is willing to transfer votes from one party to another, they are open to being convinced by a better organisation on the ground and willing to switch parties at election time if they have been gives a good reason to. Those are the people whom Labour need to target in the forthcoming five years in order to begin to reinvigorate their own potential. The number of retiring TDs has not been determined yet but estimates vary from 3-6 possibly more. The seats held are primarily personality seats and Labour will need to begin acting from now to keep as many of those as possible. That means a policy of local engagement, local  delivery and more awareness of the importance of the local to Irish voters.

This is of course not the only task before them, but to my mind it is foremost. These are voters who are affected by issues on a daily basis, whether it is water problems, roads, noisy neighbours etc but they are not convinced by the words of a national manifesto they are convinced by hard work on their behalf in their area and the halls of power. Its what many people hate about Irish politics but its the politics we have and for Labour to be successful they need to take a lesson from the most successful party in the state in how to deliver seats. Strong candidates a party that works hard behind them and a strong record on local issues, advocacy and delivery.

They don’t have to be everywhere on every issue but they do need to select their target vote, select issues that matter to them and campaign positively on those issues. It is far easier for me to write than for Eamon Gilmore to introduce but it can be done. The other issue that strikes me is the need to select which voters you are pitching for. I have pointed out before that Fianna Fail gets a cross-class vote of roughly equal proportion. Other parties can attempt to ape this but fail. A concerted attempt to bring down Fianna Fail needs parties to focus ruthlessly on stripping a section of FF support from a particular section of society. That much is another tough task to accomplish but its worth considering as a strategy.