Comments on: Irish Housing: Watching a Fat Man Dance

By: Irish Election » Mainstream Irish Media Smells Of Cement

Irish Election » Mainstream Irish Media Smells Of Cement — Sun, 23 Dec 2007 10:11:17 +0000

[...] and yet the Irish Independent did not feel it newsworthy until today. We also covered the amount of empty housing units in the major cities as well. . The newspaper said that it was made aware of the figures by Fine Gael TD, Brian Hayes. [...]

By: House Prices Continue to Slow | Irish Election

House Prices Continue to Slow | Irish Election — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 13:41:40 +0000

[...] that there will be a rush back into the market in September, for as others on this site have written consistently it is not about Stamp duty in the market but about affordability and the Irish [...]

By: Conor McCabe

Conor McCabe — Thu, 23 Aug 2007 23:40:50 +0000

Oh absolutely! Dan, I agree, and normally it would be a factor – a significant factor. but I don’t think demand is what has led to the simply incredible rise in house prices since 2002 – the period when our economy’s growth really leveled off (when construction is taken out of the equation, that is.)

I can’t find any figures for actual house sales, so I’d be inclined to argue that it is as likely that builders are sitting on houses / apartments rather than putting them all on the market, for fear of driving prices down. I don’t think the demand is there. I think we have cosy cartels working away in the Irish construction industry – with a nod to Mr. Lowry on that one.

My home was sold last year. Located in Dublin city, 5 minutes walk from the Dart, 15 minutes (by Dart) to the city centre. We had about 4 genuine offers in five months. and stamp duty had nothing to do with it. Ok., it’s the second-hand market, and I’m really talking about the new housing market, but still… something is up, Dan.

By: Dan Sullivan

Dan Sullivan — Wed, 22 Aug 2007 14:00:53 +0000

Couldn’t both have been factors?

By: Conor McCabe

Conor McCabe — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 22:46:57 +0000

Because we’ve been conned into thinking that demand has set prices, when in fact it’s been easy credit.

http://www.irishelection.com/08/cheap-credit-continues-to-bite-the-economy/

By: James McInerney

James McInerney — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 20:05:05 +0000

So, why, with all the availability are the rents in Ireland now the highest they have ever been?

Why is renting now almost as expensive as buying?

Why are people renting when they could buy?

Why are people paying so much for rental properties?

Why can you rent out a flat within 2 hours of it appearing on daft.ie?

Its all becoming a bit of a mystery to me.

By: Conor McCabe

Conor McCabe — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 18:03:07 +0000

I’d say people were buying houses at inflated prices because everyone assured them that housing was an investment. If they realised that prices have been hugely influenced by mortgage sellers,and not by any inherent house value – certainly not by supply and demand issues – maybe they would have thought twice about spending a sizable amount of their projected income for the next 35 years all in one afternoon. you’re right about the maths, Dan. People haven’t thought this through.

what we have here is a classic example of “common sense” being anything but. The consensus among the banks, media, and political leadership, was that housing was ok. People believed it, and nobody in the opposition – not FG, not Labour, not the Greens – was willing to say otherwise.

By: Conor McCabe

Conor McCabe — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 17:58:46 +0000

copernicus, me old mucker! I thought you weren’t talking to me over the harry potter and fries line.

By: copernicus

copernicus — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 14:03:09 +0000

“Quite simply, the supply of mortgages over €400,000 is what has dropped off.”

Surely you mean the demand, especially since interest rates are stabilising.

Are you still claiming 40% of housing is unoccupied?

By: Dan Sullivan

Dan Sullivan — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 11:31:08 +0000

Conor, they were willing because other people were willing, if only one person in a queue for one house is willing to spend 400,000 then the price will raise to met that. All the market will bear is the expression. It is about knowing the value of money and the real value of a house.

I think a big problem is people who have no context of what a mortgage is, and what the real cost of it is, they focus on repayments instead of the total borrowed and the relationship between capital they borrowed and the total they actually owed in interest(a moving target too with variable rates) and capital. They think only of the monthly repayments, not the total figure. (the continuing decline in Leaving Cert Maths would link in here nicely)