Comments on: Tony Gregory Elected http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/tony-gregory-elected/ Coverage of Irish Politics, News and Current Affairs Thu, 09 Feb 2012 09:23:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Mike Snyder http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/tony-gregory-elected/comment-page-1/#comment-50963 Mike Snyder Sat, 26 May 2007 00:08:34 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/05/tony-gregory-elected/#comment-50963 OK, should have waited a few minutes before above comment - for one thing would have noticed that Gregory surplus = 457 NOT 378 (looked at wrong cell in my spreadsheet!) ANYWAY, Cian is now correct, as Mary Lou McDonald didn't pass Pascal Donohoe, so she is eliminated and 8th count will redistribute her vote, which now stands at 4,178. AS OF 7th count, here are votes of candididates still in the hunt: Joe Costello LAB = 6,205 Cyprian Brady FF = 5,764 Pascal Donohoe FG = 4,216 SO Brady is now +1,558 ahead of Donohoe, which represents 37% of the current McDonald vote. MEANING that FG needs a HIGHLY positive transfer differential over FF from SF ballot papers to take the 4th seat . . . not very likely. OK, should have waited a few minutes before above comment – for one thing would have noticed that Gregory surplus = 457 NOT 378 (looked at wrong cell in my spreadsheet!)

ANYWAY, Cian is now correct, as Mary Lou McDonald didn’t pass Pascal Donohoe, so she is eliminated and 8th count will redistribute her vote, which now stands at 4,178.

AS OF 7th count, here are votes of candididates still in the hunt:
Joe Costello LAB = 6,205
Cyprian Brady FF = 5,764
Pascal Donohoe FG = 4,216

SO Brady is now +1,558 ahead of Donohoe, which represents 37% of the current McDonald vote.

MEANING that FG needs a HIGHLY positive transfer differential over FF from SF ballot papers to take the 4th seat . . . not very likely.

]]> By: Mike Snyder http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/tony-gregory-elected/comment-page-1/#comment-50957 Mike Snyder Fri, 25 May 2007 23:49:48 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/05/tony-gregory-elected/#comment-50957 Don't think Mary Lou yet eliminated (as of 1:30 am Fri) as 7th count is (I believe) redistribution of Tony Gregory's surplus (= 378 eligible). IF that's correct, and given that as of 6th count: Joe Costello LAB = 6,073 Cyprian Brady FF = 5,608 Pascal Donohoe FG = 4,147 Mary Lou McDonald SF = 4,120 WOULD seem possible that redistribution of Gregory surplus might just put McDonald above Donohoe. BUT if this happens, and Donohoe is eliminated, extremely doubtful that FG transfers would help SF enough to catch up to Labour. BY THE SAME TOKEN, if Donohoe stays ahead of McDonald, and she is eliminated, difficult to believe that SF transfers (also plenty of non-transferable) would benefit the Blueshirt enough to catch Labour. IF THIS LOGIC IS CORRECT, then final two seats will go to Costello & Brady (aka MiniBertie). Will just have to wait & see! Don’t think Mary Lou yet eliminated (as of 1:30 am Fri) as 7th count is (I believe) redistribution of Tony Gregory’s surplus (= 378 eligible).

IF that’s correct, and given that as of 6th count:
Joe Costello LAB = 6,073
Cyprian Brady FF = 5,608
Pascal Donohoe FG = 4,147
Mary Lou McDonald SF = 4,120

WOULD seem possible that redistribution of Gregory surplus might just put McDonald above Donohoe.

BUT if this happens, and Donohoe is eliminated, extremely doubtful that FG transfers would help SF enough to catch up to Labour.

BY THE SAME TOKEN, if Donohoe stays ahead of McDonald, and she is eliminated, difficult to believe that SF transfers (also plenty of non-transferable) would benefit the Blueshirt enough to catch Labour.

IF THIS LOGIC IS CORRECT, then final two seats will go to Costello & Brady (aka MiniBertie).

Will just have to wait & see!

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