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The second Irish Election ‘bookies Poll’
Read more about: Blogging, Coalition, Features, Government, Irish Election, Parties, Polls 
This is the second installment of our unique poll which uses individual constituency odds from bookmaker Paddy Power to predict the make up of the next Dáil (for the results of our first poll and more information on how this is put together, see here).
This time we have odds from all 43 constituencies and have totted up the totals to see what the 30th Dáil were to look like if the bookies got it spot on.
Below the fold you’ll find some graphs detailing the various parties’ seat share, followed by each potential coalition’s percentage of representation and finally a list of each constituency’s individual result with the relevant odds.
Enjoy.
Here’s how the parties stand according to Paddy Power:
(Bear in mind that the FF figure includes Ceann Comhlaire Rory O’Hanlon who is automatically re-elected to an Dáil.)
In percentage terms, when compared to our last poll it works out something like this:
FF – up 0.5%
FG – same
Lab – down 1%
Green – same
Sinn Fein – down 0.5%
PD – same
Soc – same
Ind – up 0.5%
Here’s how the potential coalition’s look, with those achieving a majority coloured red and those achieving a majority with the help of Independents coloured blue:
As with last time, the only viable coalition is between FF and Labour (89 seats) – with two other possibilities when you include Independents.
The FG/Labour coalition fares worst of all in contrast with the strong polling it’s getting in the newspapers lately.
A couple of notes to make before a constituency breakdown:
- While many of the odds have changed slightly, for the most part the constituencies results have remained static – the main changes are in the addition of the final constituencies and the odd movement of would-be TDs into higher or lower seats (i.e. moving from the third seat to the second). See the constituency legend at the bottom of this list for more information on this.
- In some cases the constituencies did not change at all since last count. This could be because nothing has changed on the ground, but my suspicion is that some constituency odds haven’t been looked at by Paddy Power since they were put up.
- All odds presented are those on Paddy Power’s constituency betting pages as of 11PM, Monday 14th May 2007.
Constituency legend:
- Constituency names with a ‘~’ beside = no change since our last poll (this includes constituencies where odds have changed slightly, but not enough to effect the seat winners or the order in which they’ve come in.)
- Constituency names with a ‘+’ beside = these are the new constituencies added since our last poll.
- Candidate names in italics = These are people taking seats they did not hold in the 29th Dáil.
Each constituency, with odds/notes (see previous poll for additional notes):
Carlow-Kilkenny~
Bobby Alyward (FF) 1 – 16
Phil Hogan (FG) 1 – 16
Mary White (Green) 1 – 12
Fergal Browne (FG) 2 – 5
Cavan-Monaghan~
Caoimhin O’ Caolain (SF) 1 – 33
Brendan Smith (FF) 1 – 20
Joe O’Reilly (FG) 1 – 6
Clare~
Tony Killeen (FF) 1 – 20
Pat Breen (FG) 1 – 10
Timmy Dooley (FF) 2 – 7
James Breen
David Stanton (FG) 1 – 8
Michael Ahern (FF) 1 – 7
Paul Bradford (FG) 2 – 7
- Slight changes in the odds here see David Stanton taking the second seat, with Michael Ahern moving down to seat three.
Bernard Allen (FG) 1 – 25
Billy Kelleher (FF) 1 – 20
Kathleen Lynch (Lab) 1 – 12
Noel O’Flynn (FF) 1 – 5
Michael Creed (FG) 1 – 8
Batt O’ Keeffe (FF) 2 – 7
Gerard Murphy (FG) 4 – 11
Cork South West~
Denis O’Donovan (FF) 1 – 12
Jim O’Keeffe (FG) 1 – 8
PJ Sheehan (FG) 1 – 6
Cork South Central+
Micheál Martin (FF) 1 – 200
Dan Boyle (GP) 1 – 33
Simon Coveney (FG) 1 – 10
Michael McGrath (FF) 1 – 5
Deirdre Clune (FG) 4 – 9
- FG’s Deirdre Clune takes a seat at the hands of FF – an occourance that is vital to the party if it wishes to form a Government. Clune came close in 2002 but failed to get the transfers – perhaps her prospects have improved on the back of strong vote management from Coveney.
Donegal North East~
Cecelia Keaveney (FF) 1 – 8
Padraig MacLochlainn (SF) 1 – 7
James McDaid (FF) 2 – 5
Donegal South West~
Mary Coughlan (FF) 1 – 25
Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher (FF) 1 – 16
Pearse Doherty (SF) 1 – 8
Martin Brady (FF) 1 – 8
Tommy Broughan (Lab) 1 – 3
Larry O’Toole (SF) 1 – 3
Bertie Ahern (FF) 1 – 500
Tony Gregory (
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1 – 5
Joe Costello (Lab) 2 – 5
Seán Ardagh (FF) 1 – 33
Aengus O Snodaigh (SF) 1 – 25
Mary Upton (Lab) 1 – 10
Catherine Byrne (FG) 1 – 4
Michael Mulcahy (FF) 4 – 5
John Curran (FF) 1 – 16
Paul Gogarty (GP) 1 – 12
Frances Fitzgerald (FG) 1 – 5
Mary Harney (PD) 1 – 4
- Harney looks set to take the last seat in this constituency according to the odds, that’s compared to the third at the last check and the second (of three) in 2002. Fitzgerald, a veteran of Dublin South East, seems on track to take advantage of the extra seat here, and is doing so at the expense of Harney (in that Fitzgerald is technically taking Harney’s seat and Harney’s taking the new one.)
Richard Bruton (FG) 1 – 33
Seán Haughey (FF) 1 – 10
Ivor Callely (FF) 4 – 6
Trevor Sargent (Green) 1 – 50
James O’Reilly (FG) 1 – 4
Clare Daly (Soc) 1 – 3
Michael Kennedy (FF) 1 – 2
- O’Reilly and Daly switch places this time around, but it’s fair to assume that the Socialists don’t care what seat they get here as long as they get one.
Noel Ahern (FF) 1 – 20
Dessie Ellis (SF) 1 – 7
Roisin Shorthall (Lab) 1 – 7
Séamus Brennan (FF) 1 – 100
Eamon Ryan (GP) 1 – 33
Olivia Mitchell (FG) 1 – 33
Tom Kitt (FF) 1 – 14
Alan Shatter (FG) 1 – 3
John Gormley (Green) 1 – 33
Michael McDowell (PD) 1 – 5
Chris Andrews (FF) 1 – 5
Rúairí Quinn (Lab) 1 – 4
Pat Rabbitte (Lab) 1 – 66
Sean Crowe (SF) 1 – 33
Brian Hayes (FG) 1 – 6
Conor Lenihan (FF) 1 – 5
- Hayes overtakes Lenihan for seat three in this constituency, not particularly good news for a prominent FF member to be playing catch up with a not-so-prominent FGer (albeit one who topped the poll in 1997).
Brian Lenihan (FF) 1 – 100
Joe Higgins (Soc) 1 – 5
Leo Varadkar (FG) 2 – 5
Mary Hanafin (FF) 1 – 100
Eamon Gilmore (Lab) 1 – 50
Ciaran Cuffe (GP) 1 – 25
Barry Andrews (FF) 1 – 8
Sean Barrett (FG) 4 – 7
Noel Treacy (FF) 1 – 20
Paul Connaughton (FG) 1 – 12
Joe Callaghan (FF) 4 – 9
Michael Kitt (FF) 4 – 7
- Michael Kitt returns for FF, knocking out Independent Paddy McHugh.
Eamon O’Cuiv (FF) 1 – 66
Frank Fahey (FF) 1 – 33
Niall O’Brolchain (GP) 1 – 7
Michael D.Higgins (Lab) 1 – 6
Noel Grealish (PD) 4 – 6
Kerry North
Martin Ferris (SF) 1 – 8
Jimmy Deenihan (FG) 1 – 6
Tom McEllistrim (FF) 1 – 4
- Deenihan’s odds improve to put him in the seat number two position, at the expense of McEllistrim who moves down to third.
Kerry South~
John o’Donoghue (FF) 1 – 40
Jackie Healy-Rae (
Kildare North~
Emmet Stagg (Lab) 1 – 20
Aine Brady (FF) 2 – 9
Catherine Murphy (
Bernard Durkan (FG) 1 – 3
Kildare South~
Sean Power (FF) 1 – 12
Jack Wall (Lab) 1 – 12
Sean O’ Fearghail (FF) 2 – 5
Laois-Offaly~
Brian Cowen (FF) 1 – 100
John Moloney (FF) 1 – 7
Olwyn Enright (FG) 1 – 7
Sean Fleming (FF) 1 – 5
Charlie Flanagan (FG) 1 – 4
Limerick East~
Willie O’Dea (FF) 1 – 500
Michael Noonan (FG) 1 – 33
Peter Power (FF) 1 – 14
Jan O’Sullivan (Lab) 1 – 12
Kieran O’Donnell (FG) 2 – 7
John Cregan (FF) 1 – 20
Niall Collins (FF) 1 – 16
Dan Neville (FG) 1 – 3
Longford-Westmeath (replaces Longford-Roscommon and Westmeath)~
Willie Penrose (Lab) 1 – 50
Peter Kelly (FF) 1 – 6
Mary O’Rourke (FF) 4 – 9
James Bannon (FG) 1 – 2
Louth
Dermot Ahern (FF) 1 – 66
Mairead McGuinness (FG) 1 – 10
Fergus O’Dowd (FG) 1 – 10
Arthur Morgan (SF) 1 – 7
- O’Dowd and McGuiness’ odds level out, where McGuinness had been slightly ahead before. It’s sure to be good news for FG to see neither candidate in a fight for the fourth seat, given the anxiety which arose following McGuinness’ return.
Mayo~
Michael Ring (FG) 1 – 500
Enda Kenny (FG) 1 – 500
John Carty (FF) 2 – 9
Beverley Flynn (
Darragh Calleary (FF) 2 – 5
Meath East (Replacing Meath and Westmeath)
Shane McEntee (FG) 1 -33
Mary Wallace (FF) 1 – 14
Dominic Hannigan (Lab) 1 – 5
- McEntee moves to top the poll in this new constituency, however his and Wallace’s survival is all but certain no matter what – it’s the way the third and new seat goes that will be of interest, and so far Hannigan has been holding strong with his nearest rival (Thomas Byrne of FF) getting odds of just 9 – 4.
Meath West (Replacing Meath and Westmeath)~
Noel Dempsey (FF) 1 – 50
Damien English (FG) 1 – 16
Johnny Brady (FF) 2 – 7
Roscommon-
Denis Naughton (FG) 1 – 14
Michael Finneran (FF) 1 – 5
John Ellis (FF) 2 – 5
John Perry (FG) 1 – 33
Jimmy Devins (FF) 1 – 20
Eamon Scanlon (FF) 4 – 5
Michael
Maire Hoctor (FF) 1 – 5
Noel Coonan (FG) 2 – 5
- Hoctor improves her odds to slip into second position ahead of Coonan.
Tom Hayes
Mattie McGrath (FF) 4 – 9
Séamus Healy (Ind) 1 – 2
- Mattie McGrath holds the seat for FF, replacing Noel Davern whom has announced his retirement.
Martin Cullen (FF) 1 – 66
John Deasy (FG) 1 – 66
Brian O’Shea (Lab) 2 – 5
Ollie Wilkinson (FF) 2 – 5
Wexford~
John Browne (FF) 1 – 66
Brendan Howlin (Lab) 1 – 33
Paul Kehoe (FG) 1 – 12
Sean Connick (FF) 1 – 8
Liam Twomey (FG) 1 – 3
Wicklow~
Dick Roche (FF) 1 – 50
Liz McManus (Lab.) 1 – 20
Deirdre De Burca (GP) 1 – 5
Billy Timmins (FG) 1 – 5
Nicky Kelly (Lab.) 8 – 11
Conclusion:
While little has changed since the last poll, it will be encouraging for FG to note that most of the shifts within the constituencies have seen their candidates take seats earlier than before – often passing out FF candidates in the process. However first, second or fifth, all seats are equal and it’s cleat that getting a seat before your rival isn’t enough, FG need to work on taking seats completely out of the hands of Bertie and co. (although Deirdre Clune’s success in Cork South Central will certainly come as good news on that front.
Unfortunately for FG this gain is neutralised by the return of Michael Kitt in Dublin South. With Tom Hayes topping the poll in Tipp South in 2002 (and looking to do the same again) and with a FF TD stepping down and leaving a seat vulnerable, perhaps it’s worth asking why the party aren’t fielding a second candidate in that constituency.
Another poll coming on Friday (hopefully)
Interesting reading. strange to see FG losing a seat in Galway West.
anyone see a green/PD/FF alliance. Not with McDowell in charge but Liz (true she loses here seat in this poll)
Excellent analysis, fair play for all the work.
Think a lot of the odds are off and there’s a lot of basis on 2002 results by PP.
Interestingly, Labour candidates in particular are further outside on PP than, say, Boyles.
*Plug* There are what I feel are some decent outside bets on Labour and other candidates outlined on my blog.
I agree Lab candidates are underestimated and FF would have to be very lucky, FG seems accurate enough. I’ve never seen galway W called that way before though.
Every poll for the last year or more has had only one possible outcome and this one is no exception. Fianna Fail and Labour.
I don’t agree that the PDs will only get 1.8%. We are on 3% in the last 2 polls. I strongly disagree that we will lose Liz O’Donnells or Tom Parlon’s seats – a recent poll showed Parlon getting the 4th seat in Laois-Offaly. I also find it bewildering that some of our bookies expect FF to get 42%. I expect us to end up holding 4/5 seats, most likely McDowell, Harney, O’Donnell (one of the more popular PDs), Parlon and O’Malley. I don’t agree that we will hold Galway West in part because we are running 3 candidates which won’t work this time because of a stronger Green challenge, and also because of the water-issue.
NB The O’Malley I’m talking about is Tim.
How about FF+SF+Green? It’d be 89 seats, just like FF+Lab.
It could be FF+Green coalition, accepting support from SF. Bertie has said before that support from SF is OK, just that SF Ministers is not acceptable.
FG/Lab/Gr – 43.84% in total
FF/PD – 43.80% in total
All FF/PD’s need is to steal another seat away from the Rainbow!!!
Interestingly, Labour candidates in particular are further outside on PP than, say, Boyles.
*Plug* There are what I feel are some decent outside bets on Labour and other candidates outlined on my blog.
Yeah – I think the fact that some constituency odds don’t seem to have been updated has meant that the recent rise in support for Lab/FG has gone un-noticed. It’s a shame, really – if the info isn’t kept up to date in such a fast moving area then the results are going to be skewed.
I agree Lab candidates are underestimated and FF would have to be very lucky, FG seems accurate enough. I’ve never seen galway W called that way before though.
I don’t think FF would have to be very lucky – the pesemists are saying mid-60s, while FF would need to break the 70 mark to be in with a shout, so bang on 70 incl. one seat that is uncontested isn’t ideal for the party at all.
I don’t agree that the PDs will only get 1.8%. We are on 3% in the last 2 polls. I strongly disagree that we will lose Liz O’Donnells or Tom Parlon’s seats – a recent poll showed Parlon getting the 4th seat in Laois-Offaly. I also find it bewildering that some of our bookies expect FF to get 42%. I expect us to end up holding 4/5 seats, most likely McDowell, Harney, O’Donnell (one of the more popular PDs), Parlon and O’Malley. I don’t agree that we will hold Galway West in part because we are running 3 candidates which won’t work this time because of a stronger Green challenge, and also because of the water-issue.
I don’t know much on the ground in these constituencies but I was shocked to see O’Donnell and Parlon lose their seat in this prediction too – while I personally expect the PDs to be happy with a halving in their seat total I would expect such an outcome to feature McDowell, Harney, Parlon and O’Donnell.
@Brian Boru:
I’ve done a little bit of reading on the two constituencies featuring O’Donnell and Parlon (Dublin South and Laois/Offaly) to see what other pundits were saying.
According to RTÉ’s The Election Book O’Donnell has a tough battle on her hands – Shatter lost his seat in 2002 to the GP and will be looking for it back but he’s most likely to snatch votes from the PDs rather than the GP. Labour are also going to be putting pressure on her (although probably more the Greens). The book does predict her to hold, however.
Not such good news for Parlon – it expects FG to take that seat back having held it for so long before. If you read the piece in this week’s SBP you’ll see that Parlon is very aware of this possibility and despite being Party President he seems keen to distance himself from the PDs in an attempt to maintain support.
Fair play to Adam Maguire for putting this together. But he is making a few basic methodological mistakes. Firstly, he assumes that the candidate in each constituency who has the highest odds will take the first seat and lower rankings, in terms of odds means a corresponding ranking in terms of the order in which seats will be taken. But punters are betting that a candidate will take a seat, not the order in which he/she will take a seat. Kerry North is a prime example of this. The punters like Martin Ferris best, so his odds are best, so he seems to be headed to take the first seat. But The Kerryman’s opinion poll and plain common sense says that, if Ferris takes a seat, it will be the 3rd one, and while he probably will, he’s by no means a dead cert. So this “poll” is almost certainly skewed by Tralee’s class structure. And, I’m sure this will be a problem in most constituencies. And Maguire is also right that P.P. doesn’t seem to be making much effort at keeping its numbers up to date. So, while this “poll” is interesting, its value is somewhat limited.