Comments on: The Last RedC Tracking Poll on the Election http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/ Coverage of Irish Politics, News and Current Affairs Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:43:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Oliver http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/comment-page-1/#comment-50498 Oliver Wed, 23 May 2007 17:11:38 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/#comment-50498 As stated the other day the % vote is virtually meaningless as its down to constituency by constituency and 60% in a 3 seater is not getting you anymore seats, likewise dropping from 60% to 51% in same constituency is not going to lose you a seat. The Independents and the transfer or not from them will decide at least 8-10 seats. 25 years ago 47.6% was generaly accepted as the % required for a majority Govt, now I think it would be around 42-43% as the non transfers from independents and smaller parties make the equation vastly different. As stated the other day the % vote is virtually meaningless as its down to constituency by constituency and 60% in a 3 seater is not getting you anymore seats, likewise dropping from 60% to 51% in same constituency is not going to lose you a seat.

The Independents and the transfer or not from them will decide at least 8-10 seats.

25 years ago 47.6% was generaly accepted as the % required for a majority Govt, now I think it would be around 42-43% as the non transfers from independents and smaller parties make the equation vastly different.

]]> By: Brian Boru http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/comment-page-1/#comment-50497 Brian Boru Wed, 23 May 2007 17:10:16 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/#comment-50497 Here's a link Cian here ya go ;) http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/23rdMay07PollChartDeck.pdf Here’s a link Cian here ya go ;)

http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/23rdMay07PollChartDeck.pdf

]]> By: Cian http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/comment-page-1/#comment-50495 Cian Wed, 23 May 2007 17:00:18 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/#comment-50495 i should point all of that is lifted tho i am seeking link at moment. Not my comment but mister P Leahy i should point all of that is lifted tho i am seeking link at moment. Not my comment but mister P Leahy

]]> By: Brian Boru http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/comment-page-1/#comment-50493 Brian Boru Wed, 23 May 2007 16:49:40 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/#comment-50493 I would also point out that in many constituencies e.g. Kerry South, DL, Carlow-Kilkenny, Mayo, Louth, Clare, FG are simply running too many candidates to gain seats. Constituency polls bear this out. I would also point out that in many constituencies e.g. Kerry South, DL, Carlow-Kilkenny, Mayo, Louth, Clare, FG are simply running too many candidates to gain seats. Constituency polls bear this out.

]]> By: Brian Boru http://www.irishelection.com/2007/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/comment-page-1/#comment-50492 Brian Boru Wed, 23 May 2007 16:48:02 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/05/the-last-redc-tracking-poll-on-the-election/#comment-50492 "Today’s numbers show a confirmation of a late move towards Fianna Fail, though at 38 per cent (up two points from the weekend), the party is likely to lose enough seats to make a coalition with the Progressive Democrats, even with the support of independents, impossible." I deffo don't agree with that. In 1997 FF got 77 seats on just 39%. One thing the poll does show though is that the PDs are back in the game and facing a better election than feared. I expect we will keep 5-6 seats. I believe we are headed for a 1997 style result with no side having a majority and pro-FF Independents putting FF-PD in power. “Today’s numbers show a confirmation of a late move towards Fianna Fail, though at 38 per cent (up two points from the weekend), the party is likely to lose enough seats to make a coalition with the Progressive Democrats, even with the support of independents, impossible.”

I deffo don’t agree with that. In 1997 FF got 77 seats on just 39%. One thing the poll does show though is that the PDs are back in the game and facing a better election than feared. I expect we will keep 5-6 seats. I believe we are headed for a 1997 style result with no side having a majority and pro-FF Independents putting FF-PD in power.

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