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Sinn Fein Target 6-7 Extra Seats

Read more about: Cork North Central, Donegal North East, Donegal South West, Dublin Central, Dublin North West, Dublin South East, Irish Election, Irish Politics, Sinn Féin, Sligo-North Leitrim, Waterford, Wexford     Print This Post

At the least it seems Sinn Fein are hoping to pick up 6 additional seats in this election. Mary Lou McDonald reckons they can pick up seats in Donegal (not sure if one or both), Sligo-North Leitrim, Cork North Central, Waterford and Wexford. She also suggests seats in Dublin (well she would) though not specifying how many (Doolan and Ellis have chances). Thus the conservative number of 6 though they could be looking at as many as 10 or 12. The polls seem to be quite static for Sinn Fein at around 10% although it is work on the ground that matters.I know there is talk of Pearse Doherty in Donegal and hard graft being done in Dublin.  I think Waterford and Wexford will not happen though. Waterford‘s poll recently suggested that David Cullinane was struggling while Wexford is a very tough conservative constituency to break into. John Dwyer would need to double his support to look at winning a seat, although as one of two New Ross candidates he may come close. Still I wouldnt put any money on either of those constituencies yielding a seat (anyone in the area-leave a comment and let us know what the story is).

So what do we think? Is Mary right to look at a seat take of 11-15/17 seats for Sinn Fein after the General Election?

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23 Responses to “Sinn Fein Target 6-7 Extra Seats”

  1. # Comment by JohnMac May 1st, 2007 18:05

    I actually think the IRA will be in for a disappointment in this election. The IRA got into power in the North because after 30 years of violently destroying any northern economic infrastructure the economic climate there is much more bleak than down south. Down here anyone with a job and an IQ over 30 won’t vote for them because their Marxist economic policies will drive US capitalist multinationals out of the country. Adams is already on record, in his recent book, as saying that he would nationalise their land, property and equipment as in early days of the Soviet Union or more recently the nationalisation of agriculture in Zimbabwe. No multinational is going to wait around for that to happen.

    Anyone without a job is their target audience and fortunately thanks to decades of fairly sound economic policies by Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour and the PDs. there aren’t as many of those as there used to be. Also turnout is at it’s lowest in the areas that have highest unemployment. They will promise to vote No.1 when the local IRA canvassing team comes banging on their door and even when a pollster approaches them they will say they will vote IRA but come election day they just won’t bother because something more interesting came up on the tellie.

    The IRA won’t be holding the balance of power in this country anytime soon. They might pick up a seat or two around the border areas where unemployment is higher thanks to their 30 years of violence but overall they will remain a marginal extremist party feared by 99.9% of people.

  2. # Comment by Ian G May 1st, 2007 18:05

    I can see them appealing to some of the younger generation who ignore their past and just look at them with a ‘radical’ image, different from the standard Fine Fail/Gael. Some of their policies are quite headline grabbing/vote winning. Not very well thought out though, but that’s a seperate issue.

    I personally hope not to see them in any balance of power.

    I imagine that Sinn Fein and the Greens will be fighting it out for some of the same young radicals.

  3. # Comment by Dermot L May 1st, 2007 20:05

    JohnMac, you don’t happen to write for the Sunday Independent by any chance?!!

    Read some Marx and some Marxist economics before spouting the PD rubbish on SF. I’m not a Sinn Féin supporter but this old-school Shinner bashing isn’t getting anyone anywhere.

  4. # Comment by Ben May 1st, 2007 20:05

    Johnmac, I thought it was capitalist global economics that was driving capitialist multinationals out of Ireland, but there you go. Also, how can you pick up a core vote of 10% and be feared by 99.9% of the people. surely you mean 90%, or is your maths as daft as your analysis?

  5. # Comment by JohnMac May 1st, 2007 21:05

    Marx believed in radical conflict where there was no solution other than revolution. Marxism always has and always will lead to communist dictatorship and economic meltdown. Dictatorship and poverty. That’s all the IRA offer even if they try to tart up their image by trotting out some young totty.

    And yes Ian I forgot that they also appeal to some of the younger more niave members of our society (kind of like cults do). Fortunatly on that day they will all be sitting exams hundreds of miles from where they are registered to vote.

  6. # Comment by Ian G May 1st, 2007 21:05

    Just as a sidenote, I am a young voter. I’d take offence at that comment if I cared enough.

    I go to a secondary boarding school, and to be hoenst I don’t know how I’m going to get home, but I will.

  7. # Comment by Simon May 1st, 2007 22:05

    in fairness as many young people dislike Sinn Fein as grown ups. Sinn Fein just tend to get their vote out more

  8. # Comment by Brian Boru May 2nd, 2007 06:05

    I despise this party but expect them to make gains in Donegal, Dublin NW, Dublin NE, and possibly Sligo-North Leitrim but possibly losing Arthur Morgan’s seat in Louth.

  9. # Comment by Martin May 2nd, 2007 07:05

    If the Sinn Fein machine in Gorey is anything to go by then John Dwyer must be in with a chance for a seat in Wexford. Month after month literature is posted through letterboxes highlighting concerns that must surely resonate with a large section of the electorate – health, education, poor local services… These flyers are unchallenged on the doorstep by the established political parties leaving an open field for Sinn Fein to build a political base.

  10. # Comment by Peter Duffy May 2nd, 2007 08:05

    She would be right about Ellis in North West…..unfortunately he would take out PatCarey instead of that prize muppet Noel Ahern.

  11. # Comment by Brian Boru May 2nd, 2007 09:05

    No I don’t agree that Dwyer will get in his vote is only 9% in 2 recent Red C polls and he’s not attracting sufficient transfers. He is not doing as well in New Ross as Connick (FF) who is on around 40% of the vote there.

  12. # Comment by unreported_crime_is_up May 2nd, 2007 09:05

    Goreys a honey-pot for sinn fein, lots of diaffected dubs in whats becoming one sprawling badly planned estate. Dwyer doesn’t have to beat connick. Both liam(couldn’t get fitted for a blueshirt quick enough) twomey and lisa simpson (married name she understandably has dropped for campagning) are vulnerable.

    The shinners have hit the ground running in wexford town too. I Think dwyer has to have a chance.

  13. # Comment by Frank Little May 2nd, 2007 10:05

    I think the Shinners are blowing smoke at the notion of a seat in Cork North-Central where their candidate stood down, then stood back up again. Sligo-North Leitrim’s chances seem to be based purely on a single poorly done opinion poll. I’d suggest Doolan’s going to be too far short as well. He doesn’t have base outside of the inner city, and though he’s the only candidate based there, it won’t be enough.

    I can see them taking both Donegals and three (Central, North West and North East) in Dublin on a good day. They could bounce into a seat in Waterford as I think they’ll attract a lot of Green and WP transfers, but that would be a very good day. Maximum, I reckon, of 11. Minimum of 7-8.

  14. # Comment by Cian May 2nd, 2007 11:05

    I agree Frank, it seems likely that a few of those were hit and hope suggestions, possibly raising the profile locally or giving the impression that the candidate might succeed. I reckon Doolan can get close but it will be tough to get in as its a hugely competitive constituency too.

    Both Donegals have been long term targets, i would be shocked if it didnt materialise for them considering the work being put in there.

  15. # Comment by Dan Sullivan May 2nd, 2007 11:05

    I think Dublin NE is a bridge too far for SF, O’Toole has to climbing from 10% to at least 17% 1st preferences and that is a huge jump.

  16. # Comment by Frank Little May 2nd, 2007 12:05

    I agree with you that it’s an ask Dan, but I think if Fianna Fáil are in-fighting as much as has been suggested by not letting Fitzgerald onto the ticket, it leaves an opening. Sinn Fein polled 20% in Dublin North East in 2004, between O’Toole, Forde and Quinn. Now they had the advantage of all the big names like Broughan for example not contesting the election because of the dual mandate. Finally, by all accounts, they’re putting in a huge effort in the constituency, but that’s a local Sinn Fein supporter’s opinion so head to the cupboard, get some salt and sprinkle to taste.

  17. # Comment by Dan Sullivan May 2nd, 2007 12:05

    I agree there will be leakage in the FF 1st preference vote, but Broughan only got 2/3 of a quota last time and he could well soak up a good bit of it.

    The big loose vote factor is where do those who voted for Dr. Mark Harrold end up. Also, for FG the situation is that they are more likely to accrue transfers from those most likely to be eliminated, such as the PD candidate, the Green Party candidate and whichever of the FGers in the lowest (probably Flanagan). And it depends on which FFer is eliminated. If Brady then he could favour O’Toole over Sweeney, if Woods then he might favour Sweeney over O’Toole. That would just my reading of the situation though.

  18. # Comment by Eoghanin na nEin May 3rd, 2007 14:05

    I do not think Sinn Fein will take seat in Sligo North Leitrim as Gerry Adams stated (admitted?) on local radio this week they were 2,000 votes short of that target. Despoite trhe local Red C poll which raised the hare in rthe fisdts place, it is most unlielky that Sinn Fein will win a seat here this time. Three seaters do not favour smaller parties, even with good candidates; those three-seat constituencies suit the interests of the two main parties only and that will be one of the stories clearly emerging after this election. Sinn Fein’s best hope is for a figure better than 6% and closer to 10% in Sligo/North Leitrim.

  19. # Comment by Padraig Caughey May 7th, 2007 20:05

    Such venom and bile in the southern political establishment loving posts. How it must stick in the craw to see real honest to goodness Republicans at the hustings again. People who really want to see a United Ireland again. Not folk guaranteed a seat in the Dail because their great, great grand father fought the Brits but because they did so themselves. Sickening and worrying too. I don’t feel surprised that smoke is pouring forth from the nostrils. The sleeze and corruption industry may be drawing to a close.

  20. # Comment by Eoghanin na nEin May 10th, 2007 17:05

    Sinn Fein has always contested elections in the South and been supported, or not, as the public sees fit. It will be the same in 2007. I cannot understand how some correspondents here think that any (any!) critique of Sinn Fein’s chances is based on anthing other than objective examination of specific contests.

  21. # Comment by Anghaile May 14th, 2007 17:05

    JohnMac Wrote ”Down here anyone with a job and an IQ over 30 won’t vote for them because their Marxist economic policies will drive US capitalist multinationals out of the country.”

    I’m not sure what your actually suggesting here???

    From a dumb SF supporter with no job.

    P.S not prizes for guessing which party you support…soon to be obsolete PD’s cough cough.

  22. # Comment by Paul May 25th, 2007 21:05

    JohnMac thats some amount of crap you spewed out to be honest.

    I didnt vote because quite frankly i didnt want too, but you need to either go learn Irish history or shut your trap cause you aint got a clue.

    Ive done the history of the Irish conflict in 4th and 5th year and into uni and your talk of the IRA is the same crap that i hear from the English.

    The IRA fought a war, they were there in 1916 fighting against the British and they were there in 1994 still fighting the british, but you with your british mind just look at it through tinted glasses. Theres no difference between the IRA of 1916 and the IRA of 1969, civilians died and property destroyed in both times.

    If you do decide to look at the IRA’s history you will see that a big majority of their targets were military and yes some were not.

    Just do yourself a favour next time before you spout more bullshit, google something or go back to school and learn about a subject because you aint got a damn clue about the conflict in Ireland.

  23. # Comment by samuel ni bhrain Jun 7th, 2009 03:06

    well john macs dreams have not come true. Cora Harvy of sinn fein has just topped the pole in Donegal west.his finna fail and blueshirt cronies
    will yet have to accept a republican voice in dail eireann, and maybe in gorernment. 10 from 100 leaves 90 john. read up on the math again like a good man.