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Poll Results are Consistent on Trend and Show the Importance of Final Seats
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Green Party, Irish Election, Irish Politics, Labour Party, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin 
So there are two polls to be reading through and picking over tomorrow morning and I reckon that on paper this looks worse for FG and better for FF than it actually is. I’ve just been reading the hard copy and in truth their numbers have been within a 2-3% range since march. The really interesting numbers are going to be for Green, Labour, PD and SF.
It could be the vagaries of the day that decide the percentages for FG and FF with the trends suggesting 25%-29% and 34%-38% respectively for the two. Local factors will make a huge difference it seems.
It is a much bigger hit in spin terms, where FF can legitimately point to late momentum while FG and Labour have to grapple with joint losses of support. The worry should really be whether they can manage transfers and concentrate support to defeat FF on Thursday. The meta-narratives of national polls will never tell us what exactly is going on in the constituencies.
For my money, and with due regard to the short shrift that many readers of this blog rightly attach to polls, I would say this. The election will boil down to final seats. FF have very strong people in those first seats nationwide. Following on from this there is usually a decent FG (in a three seater) and/or a decent Labour (in 4/5 seats). The space for the upset rests in final seats. These seats are where the transfer and elimination roundabout come into play.
PJ rightly asserts that the last election didn’t turn on transfers. To be honest it didn’t have to. The seats were decided a long way from home. In this election it is imperative that FG and Labour manage to take the final seats where they are open. Losing these seats to second and third FF candidates what will kill the opposition alliance (that is somewhat tautological but considering there are more than three parties in this election, you get my drift).
So where does that leave us on the polls? It leaves us precisely where we have been since early this wake. Facing the uncertain prosepect of Fianna Fail managing their vote like pros to hold the final seats or Fine Gael and Labour coordinating seat losses to bring them into power. The numbers currently divide in either way. Fianna Fail have lost support. That is beyond doubt. That may not necessarily turn into a bloodbath if they lose the seats in the ‘correct’ fashion while Fine Gael and Labour end up taking each other on.
It leaves the meta-narrative firmly talking about Fianna Fail momentum while the data suggests a consistent level of support for FF and FG within 3%-4% of 35% and 27% respectively. It is all about transfers this time out. One cannot infer 2002 trends to this election because it is more open and more volatile. Look to the final seats. They will determine the election and if FF manage to get more people in they are safe. (Interestingly if Fine Gael fail in this task there will be recriminations from the areas where vote management was ‘sacrificed’ to running too many candidates, if the succeed this will have been a ‘master-stroke’.)
All of this means that the really interesting numbers are among the smaller parties. If FF can hold final seats and return with managed losses, the balance of power falls to the smaller parties who may just be willing to name their price and head into power. Which party gets to government buildings first could be as interesting as the poll results tonight.
i believe a green bounce can be expected following Gormley’s publicity stunt, Trevor’s competent appearances and some positive reporting on the Green’s VAT and sound economic policies especially given Enda’s kinda weak debate performance. I believe people are receiptive to the message that if they want a real change, vote for the Greens in government..
You’re right, Cian. It is not how many FF lose so much as how many FG gain, and they just don’t look on to win the 20 seats they need to win in order to be part of the next government.
holbrook:
i believe a green bounce can be expected following Gormley’s publicity stunt, Trevor’s competent appearances and some positive reporting on the Green’s VAT and sound economic policies especially given Enda’s kinda weak debate performance. I believe people are receiptive to the message that if they want a real change, vote for the Greens in government..
I don’t think Gormely did himself or the Green party any favours with that stunt. He was like a raving madman who forgot to take his meds!
How many seats the PDs can squeeze out of their 1st pref share will be one of the most intriguing aspects of this election. Red C has then on 2% but IMS has 3%. KeithM on politics.ie reckons that even on 2.25%, the PDs could win 4 seats. Given they scored 4 and 10 seats on exactly the same share of the vote in 1997 and 1992, it is impossible to state with the same sort of clarity as the big parties whether the PDs will be wiped out or do okay – whatever their critics will say and have been saying since 1987.
I think that from day 1 I have ignored the PD figure in these polls BB. I dont see the value of a 4% figure or a 3% figure in terms of about six constituencies nationally. It is down to how well the PDs fight for their seats.
They could still have an important say in the direction of govt because Grealish, Sexton, O Malley (x2) will be fighting for those same final seats needed by Fg and Lab.
I have to agree with Cian. While the PD’s gained seats above their share of the poll in past elections, I think they are in big trouble this time. I think that they will definitely get Harney back, but the rest of them are in trouble. McDowell has an outside chance but I see it as unlikely unless he unseats Quinn. Parlon will lose the seat to Flanagan, O’Donnell (unfortunately) will lose to FG(Shatter),F. O’Malley to FG(Barrett), Sexton losing because of constituency makeup. Grealish and T.O’Malley have outside chances but will have a major fight. So PD’s may return with 1 to 3 seats. (I believe 1 the most likely)
FF will lose support and votes, but I don’t think that it will be a bloodbath for them. They will manage their vote as always and minimise seat losses despite their % drop. FG will gain a good bit, but not just FF seats. I think that they will take PD seats and Labour ones. Labour I feel will not have a good election. There is even a chance that they could lose 1 or 2 seats overall. My reasoning for this, is that their candidates are not great and they have shifted significantly from the left. SF and the Greens will pick up votes and seats from Labour.
The pools may be right in realtion to the % of vote the parties end up with, but I do not think that that can be readily translated into seats. All politics is local and croos party voting happens a lot when candidates are from the same town. Polls don’t take this into account. (Also a sunny polling day, government does well, rainy polling day opposition does well. You don’t see that in polls!)
In the end, a lot of people will decide in the polling booth on the day. And unfortunately, it won’t probably be about policies, but whether they want Bertie or Enda. Everyone knows it will be a coalition (between 3 parties on either side if FF and Lab can;t to a deal), so people will vote for taoiseach. And guess who will win that that to enable those extra few final seats!
Delphinian, FF don’t always manage their vote well, just look at Kerry South.
I believe that the
http://www.irishelection.com/05/the-dangers-of-the-1-in-3-question-for-ff-tds/
is more and more relevant. It is also possible that the distribution of the votes across constituencies could hurt FF is their high votes come in areas where their seats were not at risk or they had no chance to change.
I checked out your article Dan. And you do make a very good and valid point. It does remain to be seen, but I believe that this time the FF machine is going to swing into full action (bar the debacle for them in Cork NW and Donegal NE). I also believe that people being people, FF wil pick up votes this election from everywhere, which will help them. While there is an alternative pact on offer, FF will still get Labour transfers as well as SF (a lot of their candidates are ex FF), the Greens (possible partners), the PD’s and from Independants (most of whom are ex FF). It is the transfers more than ever that will decide this election and I don’t see many FF transfers going external. They have too many candidates running in some constituencies and yes, that will cost them, but I think they will poll about 38% and probably return with 70 or so seats.
Just got the info on tomorrows polls, show FF up at 41%. I think that is way to high, but I do believe that a counter swing to FF is under way.