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On the ropes, well not quite…the most dangerous adversary. FF, that ‘bounce’ and Election 2007
Read more about: Irish Election, Irish Politics 
I’ve been fairly cautious in recent times about the shifts of this election. You’ll notice no great statements about how Irish politics is about to be reshaped one way or another. No hostages to fortune about the inevitable victory of the alternative coalition or how Ahern will bounce his way back to power.
And I don’t intend to start now. Other, that is, than to note that something I’ve been muttering about to those who know me, or are sympathetic to feign even slight interest, appears to be in part manifesting itself. And that is?
A natural caution about the underpolling of Fianna Fáil over the past month. Look, there are clearly significant reservoirs of loyalty, affection, call it what you will towards that party and also to Ahern. This is made up from perceptions of competence, authority and ability on their part. These are, to my mind, overstated. It’s not that good. It’s okay. It should be a lot better.
But, as the debates showed, and already noted Kenny, a decent and pleasant man, was largely overwhelmed by Aherns experience (incidentally, was it Gene Kerrigan, or someone else in the Sunday Independent – side note, first time I bought it in years, and that only for the lovely photograph of a certain candidate – who suggested Ahern should run on his experience and record during that debate, yeah like Kenny wasn’t prepared for that tactic?). Simply put he hasn’t seemed entirely fit for purpose so far. This is not his fault, at least in some respect, since he is up against one of the best political operators this state has ever seen, but that too is telling. Ahern was, and remains, wounded. Unable to punch at quite the weight he did in 2002 due to the miasma of allegations which although answered retain a certain potency. As would anyone who had had a forensic analysis of their accounts, there must remain the unpleasant thought that something might be found which would have a sinister look to it. Hence, his rather muted display last week. And yet the best we get…according to the Irish Times was a ‘draw’ which in some convoluted fashion translates into a ‘win’.
And even if we put the debates to one side, there is a flat and one-dimensional aspect to the Alliance for Change. From the dismal reiteration of the “Contract” at every opportunity to the unbelievable glibness of “Dream On Baby”, three words that encapsulate all that is wrong with the current approach by the ‘official’ opposition. What does it mean? Nothing. It sounds for all the world as if we’ve been gifted a brief insight into the film playing in the collective heads of those behind the Mullingar Accord…a film where the historic importance of that Accord is second only to the Declaration of the Republic. Where portentous soundbites are a substitute for policy, and being an alternative is somehow sufficient to justify change.
Well it’s not. There are real opportunities for change. But, for those of us on the left they’re not at this election.
And in the meantime, it seems sensible to remain cautious, as we appear to be facing a tighter race and a less weakened Fianna Fáil than many predicted even twenty four hours ago. An endpoint which seems to lead to a hung Dáil. Perhaps even another election in the not too distant future.
What price stability? Isn’t that the question that must exercise certain leaders last night as the results of the IT poll filtered through, perhaps particularly one who stated “no, no, never”, if not quite in those words on Friday.
The Irish people are quite simply being asked the question; do you prefer Boston or Berlin?
And once again they are picking Boston. It’s a democratic choice, if one that many feel will lead to lots to regret in the future, when the shape of the society we are buliding beomces all too clear.
MT
The choice now is who will form a coalition with Fianna Fail. The Green party , the PD’s or Labour( without Rabitte as he “staked his reputation as leader of the Labour Party” on the alternetive. There is also a possibility the FF could get an overall majority. Enda Kenny and Fine Gael are once again out of the equation.
I’ll admit to being biased, but it has to be said, while Enda may come across as a nice guy, the seething truth is that he’s just a facade on what is really just the same old blue-shirt cronies who ran Ireland into the ground while they threw money at every state monopoly there is. If Enda wants to be Taoiseach, he should change coats now and save himself the embarrassment in the long run. He’s ideologically linked to Fianna Fáil and would fit in well as Minister for Agriculture.
If you don’t believe me, tell me, who outside of Richard Bruton can you name from his future cabinet? No-one most likely because he’s keeping them in the shadows. Frank Flannery knows all too well that people from the ages of 25+ will recognize the puppet masters in the era of the butter vouchers and the 60% PAYE. So Enda is like the crisp white finish on the super gloss blue 1920s run-down silver-spoon estate / manor that is Fine Gael.
Really, they’re been asked Berlin or Boston? so when FF go into coalition with either Sinn Féin or Labour or the Greens – ‘cos they sure as hell aint going to be able to use the PDs – is that Berlin or Boston? how about the various independents that FF may have to rely on? Are they standing on Berlin or Boston? Jackie Healy Rae – Berlin or Boston? I think I missed that poster. Soundbites do not an analysis make.
As far as this bounce goes – in 2002 FF had 51% according to the Irish Times.
Papers need polls for their stories – they never mention how polls in Ireland for general elections are usually wrong, as polls are based on a first-past-the-post voting system, and we’ve got PRSTV. Referenda maybe, but that’s about it.
The methodology is flawed. A case of never mind the quality, feel the headline.
The problem, of course, is that it affects morale, so in a funny kind of way the polls make a difference. A bit like Schrodinger’s Cat – once you observe a poll, the situation changes.
Conor
You are right about the methodology used by the MRBI/Irish Times. They deliberately adjust
the figures down in the case of Fianna Fail and up in the case of Fine Gael. They always predict the demise wipe out of the PDs.
Well if the dismal performance of “the Alternative” continues ( the phoney contract, the irrating anecdotes from Fine Gael – Mairead Mc Guinness is the latest to talk about “the old lady she met in Droheda” ), Pat Rabitte being himself the pompous old windbag, then the current government will be returned probably with the support of Independents.
Where are ye getting FF in over majority territory from? In the last election FF were polling at 45% according to MRBI and 50% according to IMS in their last polls before the election. That is where the overall majority talk came from then, now they are 4% less than the corresponding MRBI figure and people talking of an overall majority. That is the last desperate effort at recycling by the PDs of a tactic that worked in 2002 and can’t save them now. FF are still going under 70 seats on the basis of this poll.
I agree with the above points on the methodology used for these polls. I know of no-one across the country in my circle of friends who has been approached by someone asking them who they’d vote for. If in fact the common Irish system is applied, these polls would be conducted between the hours of 9am and 5pm Monday – Friday with an hour for lunch.
Therefore who may I ask are they surveying? The wealthy ‘yummy mummys’ on the way to the gym? The unemployed socially down casted? The salesmen on the road all day? And if they surveyed 100 people at random for the 43 constituencies, that just over 2 people per constituency (no doubt with many more being polled near the epicenter of Ireland in Dublin).
The working class are not being tapped into by these polls – as they’re usually busy working and supporting the economy. So it’ll be interesting to see what the result is on Thursday. Polls can never predict a PR/STV election because it’s designed to lift all boats.
It might sound self serving but perhaps the reason for the drop in Labour support while FG remains about the same is that those who want FF out felt that Labour were still too equivocal about not going near FF with a barge pole. So Rabbitte’s comments on Friday evening (which would not have been caught by the pollsters) ruling out FF may yet swing support back to Labour.
I also think that FF are moving back to a level (I would think that MRBI are still over estimating FF support by 2/3%) that is more believable that the possibility that FF might end up polling under 35%. I would suggest that FF will get between 36/38% on Thursday.
I accept that many folks will think I’m deluding myself. But hey we’ll know for sure in 4 days time.
Why are people obsest with polls.
ARISE AND FOLLOW BERTIE
my namesake speaks the truth!
41 % in the polls is just 2% short of what FF got in 2002. With 3 days to go I predict that the soft Enda vote will collapse and switch to PD.
A FF/PD gorvernment will rout the left. Hello Bertie and Michael Bye Bye Enda and Pat
it’s a shame because this means that another dreg from Fine Gael’s unknown past will be resurrected to face Bertie in the Dáil for the next 5 years. What’s even more depressing is the rise of Sinn Féin through the ranks and the fact that independents even bother to contest. I guess the PDs are a consolation prize. Shame really because a majority might get Health & Justice sorted once and for all without Michael’s groanings and moanings about Goebbels and Michael Foot – the feckin clown!
Wonder who’ll replace Pat at the head of the aging party that is Labour? Do they even have a reserve of 5 years in someone???
FGers are deluding themselves. This MRBI poll allocates significantly more undecideds to FG than FF ( based on most recent elections where FF fell away during the campaign and got very few undecideds). I think that FF are at getting at least as many undecideds this time than FG – the polls point to even more.
This time momentum going to finish post is clearly with FF, so I feel FG are well overstated at 27%. There is a possibility that there will be a drift from FG also to PDs to stem FF tide, so FG I predict will be below 27% on polling day ( 25-26% – just a couple of percent up on last time).
Dermot, you didn’t address my comments – all you did was make up one and attribute it to me. I said that polls are flawed under the PRSTV system, I said nothing about MRBI/Irish Times. That gives the impression that the other pollls are ok, which they are not. And, I ask you again, how is this a “Berlin or Boston” election? Do you really think Bertie Ahern cares about “Berlin or Boston”?
The last person to count the votes before a vote was cast was Neil Kinnock and we know what happened him. To watch Fianna Fail celebrate a “victory” last night from their election headquarters was stomach churning to say the least. Their arrogance knows no bounds. Is Bertie to be the next Neil Kinnock!
The polls are always flawed but momentum is momentum. Those who haven’t got it are fighting the tide.
The issue with PR and the number of independents is that on later counts it depresses the quota quite significantly as their votes go everywhere or nowhere.
Thats why in a 5 seat constituency with proper vote management FF will get 3 seats on 44% of the vote.
The % of the vote is only relevant in a constituency by constituency basis as 50% in a 3 seater only gets you 2 seats and 40% in a 4 seater will get you 2 if you manage it right. On same number of votes cast on those 2 constituencies with 45% of votes you get 4 seats out of 7 but with leakage to indepenents which never transfer you could end up with 4 out of 7 at 42% easily.
I see FF at 72-78 but figure 74-75, PDS at 4-5 (their demise has been written about since birth) and with a couple of Independents, quite a few like Healy-Rae / Flynn etc are gene pool FF.
If SF are at 8 then does anybody see them voting in a Vote of Confidence to get rid of a Govt ? I don’t because it would mess up their long term plans and a vengeful electorate may punish them harshly plus some FF transfers may then evaporate.
Its Bertie’s to lose and he is far too smart an operator to do that.
It’s interesting to see that Cllr. Seamus Ryan of the Labour Party would find the start of the big push in Treasury Buildings as stomach-wrenching. I guess years in opposition of a phenomenal government who oversaw massive economic changes and secured employment for anyone who wants it.
I find it difficult to digest Labour Party Policy as for the first time in my and my parent’s lifetime, I do not now have to emigrate in order to get a decent wage and earn a good quality of life. Anyone who wants to ‘change’ this and its direction is completely mad.
You might be better served convincing your arrogant Mayo leader to not be so hostile to Fianna Fáil. But then again, we’ve not seen any decent policies from Labour because between soundbits and raw jabs, Labour is more interested in being heard as the moaners of Dáil Éireann. Maybe ye should find some candidates that may out-live the next administration!
Interesting to see Cllr. Seamus Ryan neglected to mention that he’s from the Labour party.
Maybe it’s about time Labour started offering some real alternatives and shut the arrogant Mayo leader up from closing the door with Fianna Fail!
I don’t care what anyone says, for the first time in my life of my parent’s life, I do not have to emigrate to earn a good living and keep my family afloat. If Labour wants to ‘change’ this government, presumably to change its direction too, we’re all screwed.
If FG/LAB get into power, you won’t need 2,300 new hospital beds – the level of emigration following that election will surely free up 2,300 beds a week for the next five years! Maybe that’s the plan!!!
I think convincing Bertie not to say things like “Problems with health and education are peripheral difficulties which don’t concern the electorate” might be a better start as this if definitely going to ‘his’ quote of the election.
I agree 100% with diarmy – the whole “make a change” slogan is a pile of crap.
Dan – never got a response from you after I answered your “one question” a few days ago (Re: NDP provision for 500 hospital beds). Didn’t think I’d know it, did you?!
Diarmy and A – both talking nonsense.
Fianna Fáil has held the Finance ministry for 56 of the last 74 years. They held it during the disastrous trade war of the 1930s. They held it in the 1950s when emigration was at its highest and soul-crushing poverty was endemic. They held it during the 1970s when the mohair suits were consolidating power in the party, and again during the Haughey years when borrowing was undertaken by the government in order to pay the wages of newly-hired civil servants, and silk shirts were flown first class from Paris.
The five year Fine Gael-Labour government of the 1980s inherited a bankrupt economy. It struggled to keep the country afloat, while at the same time preparing the groundwork for what became social partnership. The economic policies of that government were wisely accepted by Ray McSharry, who showed himself to be more than willing to continue proper fiscal policy, and who received the backing of Fine Gael under Alan Dukes – the so-called ‘Tallaght Strategy.’
The only time when Fianna Fáil has ever shown initiative in the finance ministry was during the Lemass years and again under Ray McSharry, who held the office for a total of twenty one months.
So when Tayto Ahern gets up and brushes the cheese and onion from his suit, telling us that a Fine Gael/Labour government would be a disaster for the country, let us be clear what cards he is playing.
Since the 1970s an influential block within Fianna Fáil have used power to enrich themselves. They have made millions in the process while billions have been made by property developers who have thrown up legolands along the M50.
That money could only be made if the right planning decisions were passed by the appropriate councils in the appropriate drip-feed way. This was done, but could only be done with Fianna Fáil in power.
The desire for power that drove Haughey and his fellow-travelling pimps was the desire for money. Politics was where the pay-off happened. And planning decisions were made not in the interests of the public, but in the interests of a very small, and very rich, slice of Irish life.
The payoff culture that surrounded Fianna Fáil was such that apparently no-one saw anything unusual about having a whip-around for the Irish finance minister at an after-dinner speech in Manchester. The circumstances behind the whip-around were different, but the culture was not.
We have yet to see a Fine Gael / Labour government fuck up the economy as spectacularly as Fianna Fáil did in the 1970s and early 1980s, as they had done before in the 1940s and 50s, and have done again from 2002. The ‘boomer’ times, as Tayto calls them, are fuelled by half a trillion euro in mortgages secured to a worrying degree by PAYE employment in the construction industry and ancillary services. The borrowing is paying for the jobs, man, just as it did with the civil servants in 1981.
Sigh…
I’m off to bed.
If Brian Cowan ripping Rabbitte and Coveney on RTÉ One now doesn’t show that the ‘Alliance for Change’ is pure rubbish ideology doesn’t make you see sense, then I guess Friday evening’s results will.
Oíche Mhaith
A – go back and read the thread you were asked the question on I posted this on May 20th at 5.55pm. Do you not read the threads once you’ve been asked a question and come back with fluff.
http://www.irishelection.com/05/what-were-they-watching/#more-1836
“A – Chapter ten of the NDP 2007-2013 page 213 to 220
http://www.ndp.ie/documents/NDP2007-2013/NDP_Main_Ch10.pdf
There is no mention of the figure of €180 million for 500 beds. Nor is there any other break down of the €2.4 Billion figure in the areas of the children’s hospital.
Re: the prison I was saying that as FG were in opposition and lacked the votes to alter government policy how would they have been able to block the building of Thornton Hall.”
As I noted above there is no costing in the NDP for the 500 beds. Or if there is then please show us where it is.
Dan – you asked how much is provided for 500 beds – simple enough question (A- just one question, how much of the 2.4 billion is provided for the 500 beds in the governments plan?)
This was announced and had you listened to the launch of the NDP, you would know that. 500 beds at the cost of €180 million. Now, if the oppositions beds amount to €825 million, that means that €645 million is taken away from other services which were also outlined at the launch of the NDP – these services included cancer services etc.
Phrase the issue of the prison in anyway you like – they blocked the continuing with the building of that prison – its as simple as that.
find it difficult to digest Labour Party Policy as for the first time in my and my parent’s lifetime, I do not now have to emigrate in order to get a decent wage and earn a good quality of life. Anyone who wants to ‘change’ this and its direction is completely mad.
Oh dear Diarmy,
I’m just trying to wonder here how old you are!!??……Can I suugest you read Conor McCabe’s post above for an accurate picture of governments in recent years…….as a long standing employee of the IDA, I think I am qualified to talk about what led to the boom…..and I can assure you that the current government had nothing to do with it………..but have in fact by not addressing the “competitiveness” needs of the economy in the last 5 years actually put it at great risk……infrastructure deficits……developer led planning……inflation at 5%…..domestic construciton boom…etc etc…want me to go on???…….The reason the Tayto man and PD’s have been able to cut taxes since 1997 is BECAUSE of the boom…….not a cause of it…….The 12.5% tax rate was agreed by the Rainbow Govt in 1997 as a compromsie with the EU who stated that we could not have differing tax rates for domestic and overseas industry……FF/PD’s had to reduce the Corporation tax rate for ALL companies in the state as a result and this was phased in over a number of years with all party support…….
REASONS for CELTIC TIGER……….in no specific order and for FF/PD learners on economics
1) Corporate Tax
2) Free Second Level Education leading to well educated workforce
3) Lost cost skilled labour ( especially influx of women into economy )
4) Most Employer friendly labour regulations in Europe ( along with UK ) and clsoer to US
5) US Tech/Pharma boom
Rant Over
A – for the last time where is this figure of 180m in the NDP? I’ve linked to the document itself and it ain’t there. Or can you link to some source like a clip from RTe where soeone other than yourself says that it is 180m? cite your source.