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Michael, with these ludicrous suggestions you’re really spoiling us
Read more about: Government, Labour Party, Progressive Democrats 
Michael McDowell today predicted that, contrary to pretty much everything that’s been written in the entire election campaign, the PD’s are actually on course to gain 2 seats, bringing them up to 10 seats overall.
Now think about that. Paddy Power are currently offering evens that the PD’s will keep between 1 and 3 seats. None of their 8 TD’s are exactly shining right now. Word on the street is that even Harney is struggling, trying to re-connect with the constituents that have been somewhat (!) neglected during her tenure in the Department of Health.
When Pat Rabbitte suggested a couple of weeks ago that Labour are aiming for 33 seats, it seemed at best wildly optimistic and at worst, setting the party up for a massive disappointment if it didn’t meet this (let’s face it) somewhat unrealistic target. I think if Labour can gain 5 or 6 seats, bringing them to 26/7 seats, that would be a strong achievement.
Now it seems that the same delusion is taking over McDowell.Why not just say that you expect the party to hold steady with 8 seats? Cos let’s face it, that would be a spectacular result for the PD’s right now. Instead, predicting 10 seats makes him look out of touch with the actuality of what’s happening on the ground, overly optimistic and (whisper it) more than a little idealistic.
Right now, my money’s on McDowell to keep his seat. Maybe Harney. Possibly Parlon. And that’s it.
Christine the polls mostly had us on 2% in 2002 as well and the pundits said only 2 PDs would be returned. For that reason I think we will do much better (again) than most people think. Soft FG voters will react to this poll by voting PD to stop SF.
BB, as my name says
Brian, you’re ignoring the crucial difference between that election and this one; this time around, there’s a very strong chance that the PD’s won’t be forming part of the next government, which strongly influences how people will vote. In 2002, even when they were polling badly, they were the coalition partners of an unbeatable FF (which polled 45% consistently throughout the campaign, compared to 22-23% FG), and so did well on transfers, as people wanted to continue with the stable government of the time.
This time around, not only is there a viable alternative coalition, but there are also alternative partners for FF. Basically, the PD’s are expendable.
When you say you think that the party will do much better than most people think, how many seats do you honestly think are likely? I really can’t see them getting more than 4 (McDowell, Harney, Parlon and O’Donnell, and that’s at a push), which make McDowell’s claims today seem like er, the last sting of a dying wasp (sorry, it had to be said!).
Oh, and I’d like to think that ‘soft’ FG voters will turn to Labour, rather than any other party – but unfortunately I don’t think that’s definitely going to be the case…
Brian, sorry to say but I have to agree with Christine on her point. The PD’s are expendable this time. And I can only see Harney getting back. Parlon will lose to Flanagan, O’Donnell to Shatter and McDowell will be scraping with Gormley and Quinn for the last 2 seats in DubSE and may not get in. And I’d say FF aren’t too sad about it.
There are still around 15% undecided in this poll I understand. I suspect some of them will turn to us to stop SF getting in and more broadly to stop a “left-wing govt”. You have to remember that in 2002, TNS-MRBI also had us on 2% and we got 4%. The poll only has to be 1% wrong for us to get significantly more seats.
There’s a touch of the Chemical Ali about Mad Mick.
Baghdad will never fall to the infidels.
Master Boru,
Would you listen to yourself: WE GOT 4%!!!
A short-sighted street sweeper with a three legged dog might be proud of a 4% approval rating.
You’re barking mad.
I don’t see the undecideds suddenly falling at the door of the PD’s to be honest; it’s far more likely that they’ll be spread out across all the parties (and if a lot of them do chose to try and stop a left-wing govt, what makes you think they’ll chose PD’s over FF or FG?).
Because Christine otherwise they will get FF-SF and the end of the Celtic Tiger. Hope Liz gets that point across tonight on Q+A.
Brian, I think the undecideds may go to the Greens or Independants rather than the PD’s. I really do think that the games is up for them this time out. They have played an important part in in the success of this country, but they are just not a likeable group. I don’t believe that the people want SF in government (some shinners don’t even want it!), so I believe that votes will go to the Greens and Indos. And I think that FF will look to do a deal with the Greens rather than Labour, if the figures add up. (The Grens won’t want as many cabinet seats). I have some reservation about Green economic policy and the practicality of their enviornmental proposals, but I think they will become FF’s partner of choice. Labour would have been, but Rabitte isn’t liked that much in FF circles and they may want to teach him a lesson over his ‘no way’ statement about coalition with FF.
FIANNA FAIL ON COURSE FOR AN OVERALL MAJORITY ….WIPPEEEE !!!
Not in our lifetime Dermot. Gone are days of 83/84 seat parties. FF and Green coalition will be choice this time