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High Noon for the Progressive Democrats
Read more about: Bertiegate, Government, Irish Politics, Progressive Democrats 
With each consecutive opinion poll producing varying trends and results in the run up to Thursday, one party that has experienced a largely static rating over recent months has been the Progressive Democrats, which has failed to rise above 3% since February’s Red C/SBP poll (pdf file).
But while the PDs have been consistently underestimated in previous elections and written off numerous times before there are few other realities for the party faithful to take solace in at the moment.
For a party that is fielding 30 candidates in just 26 constituencies (most of whom are largely seem as ‘also ran’ names from the outset), national polls are hard to take seriously. That said, with these polls being indicative of the first preference vote if not the overall result a ranking of 2% is not going to sit well with a party that grabbed twice that percentage in 2002.
Of course the first preference PD vote is expected to narrow somewhat as Fine Gael stage a fight-back for the seats they lost five years ago. However with the party’s apparent ideological isolation, which leader Michael McDowell has been playing upon lately to solidify his own base, and with their most natural source of transfers actively encouraging voters to follow their preference to Labour, the party is more reliant on Fianna Fail voters than ever before – a somewhat unnatural political crutch for the party.
But it’s not just the FG fight-back and the loss of their transfers that’s the problem – the party is also suffering from an identity crisis. The plethora of stamp duty proposals is indicative of this with every party within reach of high office offering slight variants on the same thing – likewise with income tax.
The reality is that when the PDs formed in the 1980s their open-market thinking was new, alternative and bold. Now, after ten years of economic success which the party can at least take some credit for they have found themselves to be a victim of their own success. No party, not even Sinn Féin, dares to pretend that low corporation tax is a bad thing (edited, see comments) and no-one would dare suggest we return to an era of high-taxation and economic isolation.
In short, whatmade the PDs unique is now gone and the party has failed to replace it with anything else – bar a confusing and vague attack on the left and a pretty disgraceful slur campaign against The Green Party, which has ironically backfired in a number of ways.
Their reaction Bertie Ahern’s financial controversies have done them some harm too. While the electorate seems largely apathetic towards the issue at this stage, those who did vote PD in 2002 may feel as though the party’s promise to be a watchdog has been broken. On the other hand their foot-dragging on the issue may make FF voters who supported them before feel a little bit of mistrust towards the party after they took Bertie to the brink on two occasions and ruined the first 10 days of the FF election campaign. Others still may have just grown aggitated at the ‘will they, won’t they?’ theatrics of the two controversies and pointed the blame towards the minor rather than major party (after all, they were the ones with the problem).
Whatever the reasons for voter discontent it is clear that the party is going through a tough time, however, even outside of the national polls. In what is undoubtedly the most presidential of general elections ever in Ireland, the likability-factor possessed by Mary Harney, at least before she became soiled by Health, has been replaced by one of the most divisive figures in modern Irish politics, Michael McDowell. A Sunday Independent poll recently found that McDowell is the least liked leader in Dáil Éireann with just a 33 per cent approval rating – 11 per cent below his nearest rival, Trevor Sergent – while his embattled performance on RTÉ’s Leader’s Debates did little more than preach to the already converted with digs at the left and Sinn Féin.
It is a fair and perhaps even conservative prediction to say that the PDs will lose seats – it is the extent of the damage they sustain that will be important and could dictate the future of the party. Some of the more extreme predictions, such as Ivan Yates’ in The Sunday Tribune, puts them at 2 seats in the 30th Dáil (presumably McDowell and Harney), which would be nothing short of a disaster if it happened but in reality is unlikely to.
RTÉ, on the other hand, are predicting the slightly better total of 3 seats with McDowell, Harney and O’Donnell being the only members returned (and O’Donnell, in their words, surviving the biggest battle of her political life).
The bookies seem to be suggesting a return of three seats also, albeit with the notable losses of Liz O’Donnell as well as Tom Parlon – a combination that would probably be seen as the upset of the entire election if it came true. (There have also been plenty of completely unsubstantiated rumours going around claiming that McDowell is on shaky ground too, but while he has failed to ever secure re-election before now it would be foolish to expect him to become the first significant party leader in living memory to not get elected.)
Whatever the predictions say, the pressure is now on the PDs to avoid a collapse. They’ve been on four seats before, of course, and could hang on in there at that level but with FG’s second priority (behind victory) being the complete obliteration of the PD party you have to wonder what would happen if the numbers fell below that. And while the party vote is being squeezed from all sides, a lot of the pressure they’re feeling is self-inflicted, brought on by a failure to offer realistic, unique policies beyond the parish-pump, a failure to be decisive one way or another over Bertie’s finances and a failure to mobilise anything resembling a confident or noteworthy campaign.
But if worst does come to worst there might be a silver lining for McDowell. If it does end up with just himself and Harney re-taking their Dáil seats at least he’ll be able to remain as leader for another 5 years!
although the PDs weren’t in Government when this was lowered
they were corporation tax was not lowered to 12.5% until around 2002-2003. it was dropping since around 1995 with quinn at about 4% a year. so they were there for about 5 years of it dropping. also Des O’Malley was the first to bring in the idea (I think) back in 81 when we lowered manufacturing corporation tax to 10%. All parties bar SF and Green dropped corporation tax while in government
My mistake, Simon. I think I got things mixed up and thought that the Rainbow lowered the rate to 12.5, but I think the lowered it to the 20s or so.
I’ve edited the piece to reflect that.
The PDs will loose Mai Sexton’s seat in Roscommon but will probably retain the other 7 seats they hold. Minihan has an outside chance of a seat in Cork and the novalty candidate Frank Mc Namara has an outside chance in Dublin especially once soft Fine Gael voters realise that “the alternative” or “the Alliance for change”(who makes up this stuff) have run out of steam and are as dead as a dodo. Mind you the prospect of Mairead Mc Guinness as Fine Gael Leader is nearly aweful enough to inspire me to vote Fine Gael.
the lowered it to the 20s or so.
I believe they only get to 32% before losing power could be 28% but not much lower.
The PDs will loose Mai Sexton’s seat in Roscommon but will probably retain the other 7 seats they hold.
I think the party would be ecstatic with that result, but I just don’t see it happening.
Minihan has an outside chance of a seat in Cork and the novalty candidate Frank Mc Namara has an outside chance in Dublin especially once soft Fine Gael voters realise that “the alternative” or “the Alliance for change”(who makes up this stuff) have run out of steam and are as dead as a dodo.
Not a chance – not only is McNamara a novelty parachute candidate, he’s also running with another PD in a constituency where they got just 3% of the vote in 2002. Any chance they had of taking a seat here has been lost by the dual ticket.
Whats weighing on peoples minds is whether they want a Fianna Fail/ Labour goverment
(despite what Rabitte says0 or Fianna Fail/PD. That choice will give the PDS a bounce.
The PDs have failed in all of their mandates. Prisons are fucked, Heath Service is fucked… the only thing the PDs have done successfully is appeal to threatened racists with their draconian immigration polices. Those same people will vote their wallets and go with FF… or even Labour.
I see FG/Labour/Greens/Independents government and another general election in two to three years.
You’re talking as if FG are in for another washout – they’re not. Sure, the reality is that FF is in a better starting position to form the next Government but FG isn’t out of the race by any stretch and will pick up seats.
As Mark Hennessy said on his blog, when FG go up the PDs go down – it’s never been any other way.
“You’re talking as if FG are in for another washout”
Um… no I am not. Now where did I say or infer that. Why are putting words in my mouth? Are you trying to further validate a obvious possible FF government scenario to garner support? Are you feeling insecure?
Relax yourself there Daniel – that was directed at Dermot’s comment on the PDs getting a bounce because voters will see a vote for them as a way of stopping Labour getting in with FF.
It just got published after you had put your own comment up.
Polls consistently understate our vote – especially coming up to a General Election. In 1997 we started off on 12% and then fell and the last polls before the GE had us on 3.6% but we ended up with 4.7%. In 2002 the last polls (except ICM) had us on 2% but we got 4%. It think it goes to show the relevance of the margin-of-error which really does mean what it says on the thin. I doubt we’ll fall below 4-5.
Those statistics also show just how irrelevant the national vote is to the number of PD seats too – they could potentially pick up their total vote to 1997 levels and still halve their seat numbers.
That said, while I do think the polls are not to be taken as gospel for any party, but specifically for the PDs, the consistency in which the PDs have languished at 2-3% says something that goes beyond the “snapshot” of an isolated result.
Look anyting can happen in this election. Fine Gael and Labour have had a bad week and have been over reliant on Spin and silly catchphrases such as “contracts for a better Ireland ” and “Alliances for Change”. They chose spin over substance and are now suffering as a result.
There has been a swing towards FF and everyone knows it. I predict FF could take between 70 -75 seats. Then things get interesting. Although only one PD seat is safe all the rest are marginal
and on a good day they could return with eight seats just like in 2002. It depends on a 1-2% swing to the Progressive Democrats. I honestly think that Fine Gael have blown it. They seem to think that the main motive of the electorate in this election is they desire for change in it self and that just is not the case.
I predict a FF/PD/IND government which will last until Brian Cowen becomes Leader and then the whole thing will fall apart.
Look anyting can happen in this election.
There’s no doubt about that but there are high-probability events. Bertie Ahern getting re-elected is about as safe a bet as you can get, but FG picking up seats is a close second (because the alternative would be a disaster they’d have difficulty recovering from).
The rest of what you say is opinion based around your reaction to the FG/Lab campaign – even FF don’t take the IT poll as reflective of the realities on the ground and all parties are saying it’s still in the air. I really think you’re over-anticipating an electoral disaster for FG/lab when there’s no reason to think this – even the worst poll doesn’t suggest that.
Personally I don’t expect FG to make it past the post but I do think they’ll make gains, often at the cost of the PDs.
“Personally I don’t expect FG to make it past the post but I do think they’ll make gains, often at the cost of the PDs.”
True in places like Dun Laoghaire, but the problem for the Rainbow coalition as a whole is that Fine Gael may make gains at Labour’s expense, so there’ll be no net gain. For example, in Dublin South-east where Lucinda Creighton is pushing hard, she’s just as likely to take out Ruairi Quinn, who only took the fourth seat last time around when he was Labour party leader, as Michael McDowell.
True in places like Dun Laoghaire, but the problem for the Rainbow coalition as a whole is that Fine Gael may make gains at Labour’s expense, so there’ll be no net gain. For example, in Dublin South-east where Lucinda Creighton is pushing hard, she’s just as likely to take out Ruairi Quinn, who only took the fourth seat last time around when he was Labour party leader, as Michael McDowell.
That’s a fair point – not every PD gain in 2002 came from FG and even if FG were to take all 8 PD seats it wouldn’t be enough to get into Government – they do stand to pick up from FF in some places but Labour and the Greens are by no means immune to the FG push.
That said I think the party’s priority is PD and it’s the most natural move for PD voters (besides maybe FF).