Health Job Losses and the Affordability of Buying the Electorate

They were joining in my head at the periphery but this morning, before getting stuck into some Ryle (as one does), I read a very good piece on the Finfacts blog. They (rightly) reminded us of the prevailing conditions within which the 2002 election took place. An international downturn was underway thanks in no small part to the implosion of the tech bubble in the US and Europe. Ireland was beginning to dip and what followed was two years of a more difficult nature than seen in the nineties (though not a patch on the 80s).

They were quick to point up the implications this had for election promises following the election and some of the cuts that Charlie McCreeevy put in place despite promising at election time, “no cutbacks, secret or otherwise”. We recall how angry people were at the time about this and many swore they wouldn’t forget. The finfacts blog is not alone in worrying about post-SSIA consumer demand and the capacity of the economy to withstand a slow down in a construction sector worth 17%-30% of the economy.

It is against this picture one considers the promises made and the rumoured cuts in staffing. Today their was another HSE leak to the Lunchtime Show on Newstalk, this time detailing plans to cut jobs (including a hundred or so jobs from frontline services). The opposition were all over it like flies on….you know the rest. The real story here though is that it is not all going to go one way for the next five years. Last time out it meant that Martin’s health plan was still-born and this time around it could mean similar. Will it once again prove too expensive to pay for the electorate once they are bought?

Where am I going with this? Good point, neither party grouping has been particularly strong on this idea that growth mighn’t be as strong (with the notable exception of the Green Party’s growth projection). No one likes to talk about being in government when the good times slow or even stop. Yet all sides have promised away. They have stipulated priorities but perhaps, and I am not certain, it is not enough. Perhaps the signal that a slowdown in construction is a slowdown in the economy demands attention to real and deep reform. Finfacts called it attention to the tax burden, I think it goes beyond that.

The core lesson to take thus far though, is that there is a crux facing polticians again in the coming years. Layer further apathy upon us by canning promises or stick to promises and attempt to manage and reform an economic slowdown or it could all be grand.