Directing the Public’s Ire, What is an Opposition to Do?

Michael McDowell’s statement that the Taoiseach needs to make a full public statement on the issue of public finances, comes on the heels of Trevor Sargent’s similar intervention. The opposition has looked positively frightened by the story. Its like a boiling kettle they are afraid to take off the hob for fear of burning their hands. They seem unsure if they are needed to make this an issue, they are unsure how strong to go on the Taoiseach over this. This is because, unlike the press, they are unsure of one thing which is of paramount importance, the location of public ire.

Bertie has a long history as a likeable character, a good guy and a solid worker, he is ‘anorak man’, after all. He was the saviour of Fianna Fail when it looked like tearing itself apart and he has run the place for ten years and we have had good times. The public feel they know him, he is one of us. So divorcing people from their (seemingly innate) drive to like him is the challenge facing the opposition. That was even before the news of payments, irregularities, rented/bought houses and tribunal allegations broke. Now they are even worse off.

The current wisdom is that since October, Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte are wary of attempting to attack the Taoiseach on his finances and the allegations in the media. They reckon that it was the seeming persecution of Bertie back in October that stunted their growing popularity and moved them back to square one in terms of poll support and momentum. Since Sunday, when the election was called, they appear to have some of that momentum recovered but it took them nearly four/five months to do.

Late last year they drew the conclusion that the Taoiseach has a strength of personal attachment with the public that they could never hope to break down. So instead, they pick away at his team of mediocre ministers and their lack of delivery on promises. Ally these with strong joint positions on the key areas of policy and a bit of good fortune, they reckon, and they will be in the mix up come 25 May. This was the plan, play to strengths and avoid Bertie’s. It looked like it was working, certainly Rabbitte was excelling in his role as Tanaiste-in-waiting while Kenny went rural and people seemed to like him on the trail. The right images, the right messages and good timing. Then we had last week.

Now, there is nothing else the media (and to be fair our good selves online) want to talk about. The Bertie payments story is so confusing, so intricate and being unravelled so publicly that we are all mesmerised by it. We cannot but fixate on the question of spending so much on DIY. We cannot but wonder at the plethora of accounts that were in place for a man who only a few months before had none. We are trying to make sense of something which, at present, is indeterminate. It is only becoming before our eyes. This is no pre-cooked dinner for the Sindo or the Times to bung in a microwave and serve with plastic cutlery, this is a thread from a Tribunal which has taken them off into all sorts of tangential places. It is becoming concrete before our eyes, two and a half weeks out from an eleciton.

That is the scary bit. Last time out, the opposition felt they might be in a position to tentatively attack the Taoiseach. As it turned out they were wrong and (like McDowell, it appears) their judgement was off on this issue. Not only did they judge the story to be of large importance but the misjudged public willingness to get on the Taoiseach’s back for it. They are in a worse position this time around. In the middle of an election, they cannot place public ire.

Many candidates last week doing press on other issues stated clearly that this was not coming up on doorsteps. It is not chiming with people. This does not worry the media, they know their market and in a situation like this they know their task. Their prey is out there to be gotten at and they must do so before any other paper does. They must crack the maze of accounts, transactions and bring the Taoiseach to answer questions on it. Their task is simple and their effect on the electorate is of secondary importance to the task of the chase.

The opposition cannot stop the media from pursuing this task, they also cannot hammer the electorate over the head with its findings if they feel public sympathy is waiting for an excuse to support the Taoiseach. So the silence, the awkward responses, the sitting and watching. In a space of hours the opposition were being ignored. Manifesto launches became interrogations over Bertie.

Quite simply they don’t know what to do with it. Have they been given a ticking time bomb or have they been given the silver bullet? Can this work in any way which will make the electorate consider them the best possible option for government? Can they divorce the public from their disposition to support Bertie? Thus far they don’t seem confident in their own answers to these questions.

Naturally, they believe that they can make the people do it, but not to the extent that they are drawing up a strategy for doing it. However if they do nothing, then support doesn’t automatically accrue to them if people get switched off from Bertie. Support only comes if they appear to have been constructive and not chasing a head on a plate. Thus far the entire opposition strategy is in flux. Continue what you are doing, head in sand refusing to wade in to Bertie? Only that you run the risk of not picking up disaffected voters for your parties because of the perceived lack of nerve? Go after Bertie in the hope you can do so constructively? Only the press aren’t interested in making that easy, the questions become harder and harder for him to answer, he is backed into a corner and the people get behind him.

It is a nightmare decision for the alternative coalition for above all else it is a test of their mettle. Can they figure out the pulse of public opinion? Can they figure out the decision needed to capitalise on this situation? Can they take it? Can they go toe to toe with Bertie on this issue and win? On the government side, can the PDs ever act as opposition while in government? Can they opt out at this late hour after securing Bertie’s innocence for so long?

Its times like these being a blogger is easy and being in charge of strategy for a party deserves more pay.

Edit: In answer to the rhetorical question posed in the headline the tactic appears to be stress the stability of the FG/Labour government and the ‘alliance for change’. I think its about as much as they could have done without appearing to hound Bertie or go after McDowell as a proxy. It gets at the two but in just the right fashion.