Cui bono

When you want to discover why something has been done you have to first ask who benefits Cui bono. So who’s benefits from this Bertiegate. Now first I have to dismiss Joe Momma’s suggestion that someone did it for reasons that they were “horrified by the thought of his being returned to a third term in office without the public being aware of them.” I mean seriously who does anything for anyone else in this world. OK maybe I am a bit of a cynic about humanity but if it was about the general good. The timing would not be this good. This is planned. So who gains?

Fine Gael and Labour

They are the obvious ones to blame for this and indeed seems to be where Fianna Fail are laying the blame. This whole saga dates back to the Jim Higgins leaking the story to the Sunday Independent about briefcase’s and Manchester. So the most logic source is Fine Gael. They are the largest party and would be looking at taking Fianna Fail votes. So really can you look much beyond them? As Cian mentioned the last time that they went after Bertie they lost heavily and alot of work was needed to build them back up. Would they want to have to do that again? They have been making progress against the government ridding high in the polls. Just beginning to make headway would they want to risk it all on a gamble like this? Which as experience shows us can back fire? This issue has turned the media off the issues. Which is both a blessing and a curse for Fine Gael. Blessing as gives less time to see there is feck all difference between them all and a curse because with the state of roads, health etc they could not fail to land a few punches. They know Bertie is popular but they also know there is many ministers not popular, easy pickings. But with this scandal they can no longer talk to the media about Martin Cullen they want to know about Bertie. There is a saying about you needing to control the story or the story controls you. I am not sure they have any control on this one. With the PD using the fact that the coalition would be a slump coalition and unstable with FG/Lab and Greens as the main plank of the PD campaign the fact that FF/PD are falling apart must be hilariously funny and beneficial

Sinn Fein Eoghen Harris of the Sindo seems to think that Sinn Fein are to blame. Well he would really so enough of that. The only chance they have of getting into government is that Fianna Fail need them. A defeated Fianna Fail means that Sinn Fein are sitting with them in opposition. But this is not a bad thing for them if they can gain one or two seats off Fianna Fail from this they would have a chance of keeping them. Working hard on the ground that would certainly straighten them. Then again a Bertie backlash against the opposition might mean that people voting Sinn Fein thinking FF are safe might well jump back to FF. Also if it came out that Sinn Fein were involved. Well provo’s subverting democracy does not sit will when you are trying to Mary Lou your image.

Greens

The Greens I think have the most of any party to gain from this. Unlike FG/Lab they are going to be battling for many of FF votes. The votes they will be battling for are going to be the votes of people. Who dislike FF and consider it t be truly corrupt. Their other big voter block is the D4 block that they compete with the PD’s for. With the PD using the fact that the coalition would be a slump coalition and unstable they get to hit back at them. They get to go on about how they are lap dogs not watch dogs. They get to hammer them on their integrity while maximising the perception that they are the only party that has integrity. They get to hurt the PD’s. The rise of the Greens is not due to the rise of profile and climate change and the like. It is in my opinion dues to the fact that people are sick of the croynisum and all that. This lets them hammer that point home. Could not ask for more really nothing to lose everything to gain. So under the terms of Cui bono…….

Fianna Fail

So what reason would Fianna Fail want to focus the campaign on their most poweful card. obviously they would think that if what happened over Bertiegate one could happen in round 2 they would win the election. But are they that ballsy to play that game. I don’t think so. The polls are still not clear what the next government will be. They could have got back in with a new partner of course. Many of them this liked the PD’s and felt they were damaging them electorally. FF/Lab was looking good. So why would they do this? One idea would be that someone is after Bertie’s job. The likely ones are Mary Hanafin, Brian Cowen and Dermot Ahern. Would any of them leak this info thinking that after the election Bertie would be forced to step down by either Trevor or Pat. And that they would emerge as the new leader. You may think that but I could not possibly comment. Would they have the balls? Who knows but if it did come from Fianna Fail some one is more devious then Bertie.

Progressive Democrats

They have off all parties the least reason to do it. They are fighting for every seat. Will do well to keep 4. Are going to be probably be in opposition even if they kept 8 seats. If the lose seats would McDowell step down? Maybe not. But now that he has been made like a bit of a fool maybe a party challenge is more likely. With someone wishing to de-McDowell the party on the opposition benches and re-build? Probably will happen with or with out this scandal.

A.N. Other

Does the classy GAA Programme player have a motive. Possibly. Is it revenge or some kind of “mafia lesson” who knows one thing is for sure. It is interesting.