An exclusive, in depth election poll of our own

With The Irish Examiner giving us our first poll of the actual campaign today, and with polling day just less than three weeks away, I felt it was as good a time as any to compile a poll specifically for Irish Election, one that may be unconventional but just as relevant and reliable as anything various other outlets may produce.

Bookmaker Paddy Power is offering the standard variety of election bets – including individual constituency bets. With that tool at our disposal, I thought it would be interesting to see what our next Dáíl would look like if we were to assume that the bookies have it spot on.

First, I’ll flesh out they way this was compiled and add some pre-conditions for good measure:

1. The seats were awarded by picking the relevant number of candidates with the shortest odds in each constituency. So in a 5-seater, the candidates with five best (read shortest) odds got selected.
2. The “winning” candidates will be listed by length of their odds in descending order – so the person with the shortest odds, and in Paddy Power’s eyes most likely to win, is listed first, the next shortest odds second etc. etc.
3. All but a handful of odds were taken from this page on Thursday evening at around 8PM and have likely changed by now in some, if not all constituencies.
4. Paddy Power, for whatever reason, are missing three constituencies in their odds. Maybe they’re not worth betting on, maybe they don’t know the ground enough to offer odds – either way this does cut the seat total down to 154, making 78 the required majority. The missing constituencies are Cork South Central, Galway East, Tipperary South.
5. While 39 out of 43 constituencies should offer a more than fair sample, to make comparison’s completely fair I’ll also list the way the 29th Dáil would have looked had these four constituencies been excluded from it too.
6. A number of the constituencies involved (e.g. Meath East, Meath West etc.) are new this year and are formed from now defunct constituencies. I’ve done my best to match the current candidates for these up to the previous TDs, but it’s unlikely to be spot on. Meath East and West have been combined to make this a little easier, while each new constituency will have information on what used to be in its place.
7. Just in terms of information structure – first I’ll list the seat breakdown according to Paddy Power, then the potential coalition breakdown, then the comparison on the same constituencies in 2002. After that, for all the political junkies reading, a constituency-by-constituency breakdown detailing each of the suggested TDs, their odds and the odd note on an interesting win/loss. Where possible new TDs will be marked with a name in italics.

Before I start, I’m sure that some may find this a pointless venture – and to some degree it is. However it’s no more a pointless venture than any of the polls we’ve been digesting for some many months, and will continue to do for another few weeks… in fact, this should probably be taken with slightly less salt, as Paddy Power is risking actual financial loss if it gets too much wrong.

So without further adieu, I give you the 30th Dáil as predicted by Paddy Power:

Fianna Fail – 64
Fine Gael – 42
Labour – 19
Sinn Fein – 10
Green – 8
Progressive Democrats – 3
Socialist Party – 2
Independent – 6

Potential coalitions (with viable majorities in italics):

FF/PD: 67
FG/Lab: 61
FF/Lab:83
FG/Lab/Green: 69
FF/Green: 72*
FF/SF: 74*

* Both possible with the help of all/some Independents.

Now, how the 29th Dáil would have looked with these 39 constituencies, for comparison’s sake:

Fianna Fail – 75
Fine Gael – 28
Labour – 20
Sinn Fein – 5
Green – 5
Progressive Democrats – 8
Socialist Party – 1
Independent – 12

A couple of notes to make before a constituency breakdown:

1. Overall the 39 constituencies are representative of the actual 29th Dáil. FF are just a whisker from a single-party majorty, all PD, SF, Socialist and Lab. seats are accounted for and we’re just 3 seats short of all FG, 1 short of all Ind. and 1 short of Green.
2. Comparing the two, we see a 11 seat loss for FF and a 14 seat gain for FG according to Paddy Power’s predictions, but for the latter it’s not enough for even the most rainbow of coalitions.
3. Considering the fact that these 39 constituencies house all PD seats, the predicted outcome is a disaster, with their representation being cut by more than a half – this makes them the second smallest party in Dáil Éireann, well behind the Greens and just ahead of of the Socialists.
4. Labour also have little to celebrate, however, with their 1 seat drop when they need to be making gains. The “alternative coalition” would have to do very well from the final 4 constituencies to have any dreams of office.
5. The Greens, Sinn Fein and the Socialists all have something to celebrate with gains for each party – even when compared to their full result in 2002.

And now, the winners and losers by constituency, with odds/notes:

Carlow-Kilkenny

John McGuinness (FF) 1 – 33
Bobby Alyward (FF) 1 – 16
Phil Hogan (FG) 1 – 16
Mary White (Green) 1 – 12
Fergal Browne (FG) 2 – 5

Cavan-Monaghan

Caoimhin O’ Caolain (SF) 1 – 33
Brendan Smith (FF) 1 – 20
Joe O’Reilly (FG) 1 – 6
Seymour Crawford (FG) 1 – 4

- This constituency is of course a 5-seater with Rory O’Hanlon getting automatically re-elected. Joe O’Reilly’s win sees FG regain a seat lost to Paudge Connolly (Ind) in 2002.

Clare

Tony Killeen (FF) 1 – 20
Pat Breen (FG) 1 – 10
Timmy Dooley (FF) 4 – 7
James Breen (Ind) 4 – 7

- Timmy Dooley successfully holds the seat vacated by Sile DeValera for FF.

Cork East

Ned O’Keeffe (FF) 1 – 20
Michael Ahern (FF) 1 – 8
David Stanton (FG) 1 – 8
Paul Bradford (FG) 1 – 3

- Bradford swipes a Labour seat, held formerly by Joe Sherlock and contested this time for the Labour party by his son Séan.

Cork North Central

Bernard Allen (FG) 1 – 25
Billy Kelleher (FF) 1 – 20
Kathleen Lynch (Lab) 1 – 10
Noel O’Flynn (FF) 1 – 5

Cork North West

Michael Creed (FG) 1 – 8
Batt O’ Keeffe (FF) 1 – 3
Gerard Murphy (FG) 4-9

- Both Michael and Donal Moynihan of FF get wiped out – remaining FF man Batt O’Keefe is formerly of Cork South Central.

Cork South West

Denis O’Donovan (FF) 1 – 12
Jim O’Keeffe (FG) 1 – 10
PJ Sheehan (FG) 1 – 6

- FG make another snatch, this time from FF. The seat is currently held by Joe Walsh, who is retiring.

Donegal North East

Cecelia Keaveney (FF) 1 – 8
Padraig MacLochlainn (SF) 1 – 4
James McDaid (FF) 4 – 11

- Niall Blaney, who was elected in 2002 under the Independent Fianna Fail banner, loses his seat after merging his “party” with FF itself.

Donegal South West

Mary Coughlan (FF) 1 – 25
Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher (FF) 1 – 16
Pearse Doherty (SF) 1 – 8

Dublin North East

Martin Brady (FF) 1 – 8
Tommy Broughan (Lab) 1 – 3
Larry O’Toole (SF) evens

– Michael Woods, a FF TD in the area ever since 1977 (as far as I can tell), faces a forced retirement after losing his seat to SF. Note that Woods is 6th in the Paddy Power list out of 8 candidates – Liam Fitzgerald is not listed at all.

Dublin Central

Bertie Ahern (FF) 1 – 500
Tony Gregory (Ind) 1 – 6
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1 – 5
Joe Costello (Lab) 2 – 5

- McDonald takes a seat and in doing so isolates Ahern as a lone FF TD in his own constituency. Surprisingly, Paddy Power is giving better odds to Mary Fitzpatrick than Cyprian Brady.

Dublin South Central

Seán Ardagh (FF) 1 – 33
Aengus O Snodaigh (SF) 1 – 25
Mary Upton (Lab) 1 – 10
Catherine Byrne (FG) 2 – 5
Michael Mulcahy (FF) 4 – 6

- Gay Mitchell’s vote successfully transfers to Byrne who holds the seat for FG.

Dublin Mid West

John Curran (FF) 1 – 16
Paul Gogarty (GP) 1 – 12
Mary Harney (PD) 1 – 8
Frances Fitzgerald (FG) 2 – 5

Dublin North Central

Richard Bruton (FG) 1 – 33
Seán Haughey (FF) 1 – 10
Ivor Callely (FF) 4 – 6

- Finian McGrath fails to make enough impact to force another TD out of this constituency, which went from a 4 to a 3-seater.

Dublin North

Trevor Sargent (Green) 1 – 50
Clare Daly (Soc) 2 – 7
James O’Reilly (FG) 2 – 5
Michael Kennedy (FF) 1 – 2

- Both Lab. and FF are hit here, with Daly picking up a second seat for the Socialists (likely from Labour) and O’Reilly taking a seat for FG (likely from FF).

Dublin North West

Noel Ahern (FF) 1 – 20
Dessie Ellis (SF) 1 – 5
Roisin Shorthall (Lab) 1 – 5

- Pat Carey of FF loses out to Ellis, who was nipping at his heels in 2002 also.

Dublin South

Séamus Brennan (FF) 1 – 100
Eamon Ryan (GP) 1 – 33
Olivia Mitchell (FG) 1 – 33
Tom Kitt (FF) 1 – 14
Alan Shatter (FG) 1 – 3

- First major blow for the PDs with the loss of their Deputy Leader Liz O’Donnell at the hands of FG.

Dublin South East

John Gormley (Green) 1 – 33
Michael McDowell (PD) 1 – 12
Chris Andrews (FF) 1 – 5
Rúairí Quinn (Lab) 1 – 4

- FF hold the seat vacated by Eoin Ryan, now an MEP.

Dublin South West

Pat Rabbitte (Lab) 1 – 66
Sean Crowe (SF) 1-5 1 – 33
Conor Lenihan (FF) 1 – 5
Brian Hayes (FG) 4 – 11

- FG take another FF scalp with the loss of Charlie O’Connor to Hayes.

Dublin West

Brian Lenihan (FF) 1 – 100
Joe Higgins (Soc) 1-8 1 – 5
Leo Varadkar (FG) 2 – 5

- Probably one of the bigger hits to Labour with the loss of Joan Burton. She did take the last seat on the 6th count in 2002, with then FG candidate Sheila Terry just behind her, so perhaps not as big a surprise.

Dun Laoghaire

Mary Hanafin (FF) 1 – 100
Eamon Gilmore (Lab) 1 – 50
Ciaran Cuffe (GP) 1 – 25
Barry Andrews (FF) 1 – 8
Sean Barrett (FG) 4 – 7

- Another FG gain at the expense of the PDs, this time Fiona O’Malley – part of the O’Malley “dynasty” within the PDs.

Galway West

Eamon O’Cuiv (FF) 1 – 66
Frank Fahey (FF) 1 – 33
Niall O’Brolchain (GP) 1 – 7
Michael D.Higgins (Lab) 1 – 6
Noel Grealish (PD) 4 – 6

Kerry North

Martin Ferris (SF) 1 – 8
Tom McEllistrim (FF) 1 – 5
Jimmy Deenihan (FG) 2 – 9

Kerry South

John o’Donoghue (FF) 1 – 50
Breda Moynihan (Lab) 1 – 5
Jackie Healy-Rae (Ind) 4 – 7

Kildare North

Emmet Stagg (Lab) 1 – 20
Aine Brady (FF) 2 – 9
Catherine Murphy (Ind) 1 – 4
Bernard Durkan (FG) 1 – 3

Kildare South

Sean Power (FF) 1 – 12
Jack Wall (Lab) 1 – 12
Sean O’ Fearghail (FF) 2 – 5

Laois-Offaly

Brian Cowen (FF) 1 – 100
John Moloney (FF) 1 – 7
Olwyn Enright (FG) 1 – 7
Sean Fleming (FF) 1 – 5
Charlie Flanagan (FG) 1 – 4

- Another FG/PD swap and another prominent party member lost – this time Tom Parlon, recently appointed party president.

Limerick East:

Willie O’Dea (FF) 1 – 500
Michael Noonan (FG) 1 – 33
Peter Power (FF) 1 – 14
Jan O’Sullivan (Lab) 1 – 12
Kieran O’Donnell (FG) 2 – 7

- Another (another) FG snatch of a PD seat and another the second O’Malley on the chopping block, this time Tim… is this just part of the overall trend, or did his recent controversy seal his fate regardless of this?

Limerick West

John Cregan (FF) 1 – 20
Niall Collins (FF) 1 – 16
Dan Neville (FG) 4 – 9

Longford-Westmeath (replaces Longford-Roscommon and Westmeath)

Willie Penrose (Lab) 1 – 25
Peter Kelly (FF) 1 – 6
Mary O’Rourke (FF) 4 – 9
James Bannon (FG) 1 – 2

Louth

Dermot Ahern (FF) 1 – 66
Mairead McGuinness (FG) 1 – 20
Fergus O’Dowd (FG) 1 – 10
Arthur Morgan (SF) 1 – 7

- The return of McGuinness succeeds and FG take two, with O’Dowd holding his seat. Another Ahern isolated.

Mayo

Michael Ring (FG) 1 – 500
Enda Kenny (FG) 1 – 500
John Carty (FF) 1 – 5
Beverley Flynn (Ind) 1 – 4
Darragh Calleary (FF) 2 – 5

- Beverly Flynn manages to hold her seat as an Independent.

Meath East (Replacing Meath and Westmeath)

Mary Wallace (FF) 1 – 14
Shane McEntee (FG) 1 – 14
Dominic Hannigan (Lab) 1 – 5

Meath West (Replacing Meath and Westmeath)

Noel Dempsey (FF) 1 – 50
Damien English (FG) 1 – 16
Johnny Brady (FF) 2 – 7

Roscommon-South Leitrim (replaced Longford-Roscommon and Sligo-Leitrim)

Denis Naughton FG 1 – 14
Michael Finneran FF 1 – 5
John Ellis FF 2 – 5

Sligo-North Leitrim (replaces Sligo-Leitrim)

John Perry FG 1 – 25
Jimmy Devins FF 1 – 20
Eamon Scanlon FF 4 – 5

Tipperary North

Michael Lowry (Ind.) 1 – 50
Noel Coonan (FG) 2 – 5
Maire Hoctor (FF) 2 – 5

Waterford

Martin Cullen (FF) 1 – 66
John Deasy (FG) 1 – 66
Brian O’Shea (Lab) 2 – 5
Ollie Wilkinson (FF) 2 – 5

Wexford

John Browne (FF) 1 – 66
Brendan Howlin (Lab) 1 – 33
Paul Kehoe (FG) 1 – 12
Sean Connick (FF) 1 – 8
Liam Twomey (FG) 1 – 3

Wicklow

Dick Roche (FF) 1 – 50
Liz McManus (Lab.) 1 – 20
Deirdre De Burca (GP) 1 – 5
Billy Timmins (FG) 1 – 5
Nicky Kelly (Lab.) 8 – 11

Conclusion:

There are certainly some interesting results in there with the PDs, and to a lesser extent Labour suffering the most prominent losses.

It certainly paints a plausible picture, but I’ll certainly be returning here with the roll call list for the 30th Dáil to see just how well Paddy Power did.