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Roscommon/South Leitrim Fianna Fail to Pip Fine Gael to Third Seat – Poll

Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Government, Irish Election, Irish Politics, Polls, Roscommon-South Leitrim     Print This Post

The Examiner carries news of another RedC local poll. This time in Roscommon/South Leitrim has very interesting news for trends and seats. First to trends, Fine Gael is suggested to have a larger first preference vote than Fianna Fail in the constituency 41% to 37%. This chimes with local polls elsewhere which suggest possible downturns for the FF vote in light of increasing voter ‘disillusionment’ or lack of confidence.

The seats though may turn up in Fianna Fail’s favour. They have a more even split of the vote at present and may make it easier for the two candidates to get over the line. There is little doubt FF are great vote managers but there are some tight numbers and a lot of candidates (like SF’s Martin Kelly and independent Gerry Kelly) who would have a say on where the third seat will go.

However, the poll suggests that with 14% support, Mr Feighan may struggle in subsequent counts, and much will depend on the ability of the North Roscommon politician to attract votes from across the border in Leitrim.
The two FF candidates are within a percentage point of each other, with Mr Finneran at 19% and Leitrim-based John Ellis at 18%.

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5 Responses to “Roscommon/South Leitrim Fianna Fail to Pip Fine Gael to Third Seat – Poll”

  1. # Comment by Brian Boru Apr 24th, 2007 08:04

    Emphasises the point that regardless of any rise in the FG vote, it is worthless unless they translate it into seats.

  2. # Comment by JohnMac Apr 24th, 2007 13:04

    They will translate it into seats. More than likely 10-12 extra. The problem is it won’t be enough to provide Labour with an alternative to Fianna Fail.

  3. # Comment by P O'Neill Apr 24th, 2007 14:04

    One concern about these constituency polls is that they can be spun in an attempt to influence the voting order of candidates. Remember Carlow-Kilkenny the last time.

  4. # Comment by Eoghanin na nEin May 3rd, 2007 14:05

    I thiunk the poll has got it right here. Michael Finneran is a candidate we would all wish to vote for, although I do not live or vote in this area. When the HSE announced its proposals to downgrade Roscommon Hospital (yet again) last winter Mr Finneran stated immediately that he would resign his seat in Fianna Fail if this was allowed to proceed. The Minister for Finance, Mr Cowen, weighed in heavily behind Mr Finneran and nothing has been seen or heard of the HSE proposals from Mr Moran since. The country needs TDs who represent, and effectively, the community which elected them in the first place. The key advantage supporting the second Fianna Fail TD John Ellis here is that the Sinn Fein candidate Martin Kenny is likely to have a sizeable vote at the stage he is eliminated (if he is eliminated) and that should tilt the second seat but it could be extrenely tight. Leitrim is unlikely to “leak” preference votes across the border to Roscommon candidates given what happened exactly 30 years ago when Leitrim voted out its two sitting Fine Gael TDs and left the county without any rep in Dail Eireann. The county was split between two constituencies in 1977, as in 2007.

  5. # Comment by William Burke May 16th, 2007 19:05

    I’m still amazed that anyone in Roscommon would consider voting for John Ellis, given the manner in which he left so many farmers high and dry when their cheques bounced and they were left unpaid for the cattle that went to his business. Some of them were wiped out completely whie Mr Ellis went on to join the other Fianna Fail crooks up in the Dail — no hardship for this asshole. I’m amazed that he even has the neck to show his face in Roscommon at all!