Frank Luntz’ Wondeful Poll Adventures (A Week in Politics Special)

Starting on RTE 1 now (10:20). Updates following.

Its over now, watch it when it goes live here.

Health:

• Interesting response to Caoimhghin O Caolain on health. Two out of fifty in the audience would like to see SF in government but in a head to head on health with Mary Harney the majority of the group were in favour of what he said. As with most of this stuff, divination is the only means of concluding anything (and reaffirms ones faith in the possiblity of a fighting election on original issues/positions rather than a spun one).
• Equally Harney seems to do ok personally suggesting that the issue of health is more of a problem for parties as a whole than just one minister in particular (says he in a moment of divination)

Immigration:

•  Thanks to Gerry for reminding me,  I “forgot to mention that immigration emerged as a spontaneous concern of the group early on – not that they were necessarily hostile to immigrants but they did believe there should be a debate about it.”
• On the hostility it was quite split between those who felt under seige and those who saw merits to immigration and desired clarity through debate.

Economy:

• Jobs/Economic growth are not the only indicator of economic prosperity. The focus drifts to corruption, inflation and a general negativity toward government management. Luntz: “not giving credit for jobs/growth” crowd: “yup”
• Reaction to government chat on the economy is worse than cynical. Brian Cowen is a “waffler”, “baffleing the crowd with numbers”. Opposition good but it is scepticism and cynicism with government rather than being taken with opposition that dominates reaction.
• The exception is the rating of Richard Bruton, people seem to trust him on economics.

Brian Cowen:

• Majority cannot see him as Taoiseach. Including a sizeable number of FF voters (only a small one however).

Crime:

• 5/50 know a victim of crime, almost zero experience of crime. However, “crime on the news” and “crime on the TV” and “after night club fights” cited as factors. Check Simon on this topic.
• Majority: Bail is too lenient in Ireland (equally across gov’t and opposition voters).
• More prison places, lock them up, edging toward the banning of bail.
• Panel response*: Perception driven issue, media driven problem, government need to be seen to do something (NW). Brendan Howlin disconnected language alienates voters (TP). Labour need a selling point (IY). Labour are far too old into the bargain (NW).

Advertising:

• FG billboard campaign counter productive – looks like and FF billboard (something I have felt myself).
• Message of the board are lost – most drivers only see the FF side. See the message as confused and a bad occasion of sarcasm.
• “Cheap dig” “negative ad”
• Many seem interested in the idea of a normative positive position (from the opposition specifically but I guess from most parties).
• Panel: Failure of the campaign to connect and FG have failed to connect message to people (IY).

Conclusion (from panel):

• Opposition can win only if they connect to the voters. Fail to transmit message, agenda, philosophy, outlook in a meaningful way and when it is necessary (radio and TV) (TP).
• Among floating voters (18% in Friday’s TNS/MRBI poll), there is a wide open election. FF/PDs not taken as honest, opposition not striking chords. (NW)

* TP = Terry Prone, head of Carr Communications

IY = Ivan Yates former FG minster, now retired.

NW = Noel Whelan former FF adviser and columnist with the Irish Times