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Winning and Losing the Election
Read more about: Carlow-Kilkenny, Cork East, Cork South Central, Cork South West, Donegal North East, Dublin Central, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin North, Dublin North East, Dublin South Central, Dublin West, Dun Laoghaire, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Government, Green Party, Irish Election, Kerry North, Kildare North, Labour Party, Mayo, Meath East, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin, Socialist Party, Wexford, Wicklow
Amidst the plethora of “2006-in-review” articles populating today’s papers, there is one very interesting piece in the Tribune. The way our electoral system works makes polls slightly unhelpful—ignoring particularity within constituencies and also the nature of transfers—but the Tribune have taken a look across the most contested constituencies to attempt to predict the likely election outcome. The main points are below the fold.
Predicted State of the Parties:
| FF | 75 | –6 |
| FG | 40 | +9 |
| Lab | 20 | –1 |
| Green Party | 8 | +2 |
| PDs | 6 | –2 |
| Sinn Fein | 6 | +1 |
| Socialists | 2 | +2 |
| Other | 9 | –4 |
Constituencies Gained/Lost
| Carlow-Kilkenny | Fine Gael and Green Party gain one each from Fianna Fail and Labour |
|---|---|
| Cork East | Fine Gael gain one from Labour |
| Cork South Central | Fine Gael gain one from Fianna Fail |
| Cork South West | Fine Gael gain one from Fianna Fail |
| Donegal North-East | Sinn Fein gain from Independent FF |
| Dublin Central | Sinn Fein gain one from Labour |
| Dublin Mid-West | Labour gain extra seat |
| Dublin North | Fine Gael and Socialist Party gain one each from Fianna Fail and Labour |
| Dublin North-East | Fine Gail gain one from Fianna Fail |
| Dublin South Central | Labour gain one from Fine Gael |
| Dublin West | Fine Gael gain from Labour |
| Dun Laoghaire | Fine Gael gain one from PD |
| Kerry North | Labour gain one from Sinn Fein |
| Kildare North | Independent gain additional seat |
| Mayo | Fine Gael gain one from Fianna Fail |
| Meath East | Labour gain one (new constituency) |
| Wexford | Fine Gael gain one (Independent Twomey now Fine Gael) |
| Wicklow | Green gain one from Independent |
alot of ‘fg gain from labour’ going on there.
by the looks of that it would be a minority government either ff/pd supported by independents or ff/sf supported by independents. They’d need to get 3 independents on side which will mean great things for 3 constituences. The alternative coalition fg/lab/green will only have 68 seats well short of the magic 84 needed.
The numbers look plausible and it’s brave of them to go down to consituency level to make predictions but that’s where the real fun is. I think FF are in worse shape in Dublin than their tally suggests. Of local interest, the Graham Geraghty camp in Meath West is convinced that they can take Johnny Brady’s (FF) seat and not cannibalise their own, but that may just be the sales pitch.
Unless berties overtures to labour pay dividends in the next few months I reckon you are right stephen. Though it is terribly shambolic for labour to lose overall mainly thanks to the cannibalising effect of the pact. FG and Lab are taking seats off each other primarily.
looking at local level is the only way to predict the election. national polls are a very blunt instrument. I also have reservations about hte tribs call in Kerry North. The FF ticket is still up in the air and i dont think Martin Ferris is on half as shaky a ground as people would like to think. Its all down to transfer patterns here, though FF may tighten the ship in that department.
I think people are missing the FF/Green option. 83 seats by that poll. Only needs one indo to go over the top
Cian, i dont see lab going in with FF and if they do, it wont last long id say. anyway FF wont need that many seats so they settle for the a combination of small party (PD’s or SF) and independents like in 1997!
As for FF/Green i dont see i appening Simon as FF is too tied to corporations etc and cant turn green easily!
There would be seats switching between Labour & FG regardless of the pact or not. I don’t know where people get this idea that Labour (or FG) will lose seats to FG just because of the Mullingar Accord.
I think the point is that the logic of mullingar is to focus on taking seats from FF. The pact doesnt aid that. The worry for me is that it is not just natural competition but the accord ends up cannibalising one party since voters can vote fg or labour for the same outcome.
It is of course a mistake to suggest that the Socialists would be upping two seats by winning two when they already have Deputy Higgins as a sitting T.D. The realistic end will be a Labour Party so desperate for power that they’ll once again settle for Fianna Fail, even though they are at polar opposites to them in policy terms. Meanwhile any suggestion that the Greens could ever work with Fianna Fail is utter nonsense.
They got the Cavan/Monaghan count wrong. FF will gain a seat here with the Ceann Comhairle automatic. Who will the loser be? Paudge Connolly will get a big vote on account of his stance for the hospital and the FG Seymour Crawford has not impressed – so out he goes. Brendan Smith will get the Cavan vote and SF Caoimhghin O’Caolain will have no difficulty holding his seat.
I can’t get my head around around the idea that SF will gain one form Labour in Dublin Central.
Joe Costello is doing mighty work in the constituency, and even though he’s running out of steam, and has no real solid base within Cabra or the North East Inner City, you’d have to imagine that he’ll get in on transfers from the FG candidate (who seems to have been bought in Hector Gray’s) Paschal Donahue.
Sinn Fein will take a seat alright, but it won’t be Joe Costello’s this year. That’s for next time.