Comments on: Photo-op wars http://www.irishelection.com/2006/12/photo-op-wars/ Coverage of Irish Politics, News and Current Affairs Thu, 09 Feb 2012 09:23:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Seamus Ryan http://www.irishelection.com/2006/12/photo-op-wars/comment-page-1/#comment-7169 Seamus Ryan Tue, 19 Dec 2006 18:11:32 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/12/photo-op-wars/#comment-7169 Interesting analysis Colm. There are those in Clonmel(not necessarily Labour Party people) who say that Phil was one of the reasons that Healy received his high vote in Clonmel and that he has not been as active on the ground since Phil joined the Labour Party. However not being from Clonmel I stand to be corrected on this. No matter which way you look at it this will be an interesting constitutency. Interesting analysis Colm. There are those in Clonmel(not necessarily Labour Party people) who say that Phil was one of the reasons that Healy received his high vote in Clonmel and that he has not been as active on the ground since Phil joined the Labour Party. However not being from Clonmel I stand to be corrected on this. No matter which way you look at it this will be an interesting constitutency.

]]> By: colm http://www.irishelection.com/2006/12/photo-op-wars/comment-page-1/#comment-7146 colm Tue, 19 Dec 2006 15:07:10 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/12/photo-op-wars/#comment-7146 Hi Seamus, Phil was included in the other mediocre candidates. But if you want the bad news analysis then here it is. On an initial review of the last election results you would consider her to be a potential challenger for a seat as she topped the poll in Clonmel running as an independent. However like Ambrose she has no profile outside of Clonmel (although isn't hamstrung by Labour HQ in her attempts to boost that profile). More crucially her core vote in Clonmel is a Healy vote so she is likely to poll extremely badly in terms of first preferences within her own locality come a general election. Also while the reaction to her in areas of Carrick and Cahir may be positive she will remain behind Healy on their ballot papers. Healy has a good vote management machine and will outperform the limited Labour presence in the county. Prendergast will take most of Healy's transfers so if Healy tops the poll with a huge surplus then she will be neck and neck with Mansergh. Or if Healy is eliminated before her then she will take his seat. However neither of these events are going to happen. It will he Hayes, Healy and finally Mansergh (after McGrath & Ambrose are eliminated). I'm afraid Phil will be lucky to survive 4 counts once the Healy machine is finished with her. Hi Seamus, Phil was included in the other mediocre candidates. But if you want the bad news analysis then here it is. On an initial review of the last election results you would consider her to be a potential challenger for a seat as she topped the poll in Clonmel running as an independent. However like Ambrose she has no profile outside of Clonmel (although isn’t hamstrung by Labour HQ in her attempts to boost that profile). More crucially her core vote in Clonmel is a Healy vote so she is likely to poll extremely badly in terms of first preferences within her own locality come a general election. Also while the reaction to her in areas of Carrick and Cahir may be positive she will remain behind Healy on their ballot papers. Healy has a good vote management machine and will outperform the limited Labour presence in the county. Prendergast will take most of Healy’s transfers so if Healy tops the poll with a huge surplus then she will be neck and neck with Mansergh. Or if Healy is eliminated before her then she will take his seat. However neither of these events are going to happen. It will he Hayes, Healy and finally Mansergh (after McGrath & Ambrose are eliminated). I’m afraid Phil will be lucky to survive 4 counts once the Healy machine is finished with her.

]]> By: Seamus Ryan http://www.irishelection.com/2006/12/photo-op-wars/comment-page-1/#comment-7080 Seamus Ryan Mon, 18 Dec 2006 23:21:24 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/12/photo-op-wars/#comment-7080 Colm, no proper analysis of Tipp South would be complete without referring to Labour's Phil Prendergast who is making great inroads in South Tipperary. My information is that Phil is being well received on the ground in South Tipp particularly in Clonmel where she is a recognised vote getter and Carrick on Suir. I am surprised that you attempt to analyse this constituency without referring to Phil's candidacy. It makes me think that your analysis is somewhat biased!!! Colm, no proper analysis of Tipp South would be complete without referring to Labour’s Phil Prendergast who is making great inroads in South Tipperary. My information is that Phil is being well received on the ground in South Tipp particularly in Clonmel where she is a recognised vote getter and Carrick on Suir. I am surprised that you attempt to analyse this constituency without referring to Phil’s candidacy. It makes me think that your analysis is somewhat biased!!!

]]> By: colm http://www.irishelection.com/2006/12/photo-op-wars/comment-page-1/#comment-7068 colm Mon, 18 Dec 2006 19:29:29 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/12/photo-op-wars/#comment-7068 Dennehey is seriously pissed off that Ambrose got the nod ahead of him but he shouldn't be. It's a nomination to no where. Fianna Fail are in a vote management battle in South Tipp. Their "big name candidate" is Mansergh but he has limited vote pulling power due to his lack of the personal touch. So McGrath and Ambrose are strategically selected candidates in an effort to bring in votes for Mansergh. However neither of these really has a profile outside of their local areas and FF HQ have no intention of allowing them build a profile in case they take votes from Mansergh and allow another party in for Davern's seat. Ambrose is doing a solo run to try and boost her profile but has too much ground to make up to go from an unknown to having the name recognition to pick up transfers outside of Clonmel. Dennehey's outburst is as much about running to the teacher (HQ) to tell on Ambrose's solo efforts as it is any deep feelings that Carrick should be represented by local people. Hayes will top the poll and with Davern gone he should come in on the first count. Healy will hold his seat but will need transfers from some of his "independent" running mates. Mansergh will be sweating over the last seat and should take it without reaching the quota because the other candidates behind him (from all parties) are definitions of mediocre. Dennehey is seriously pissed off that Ambrose got the nod ahead of him but he shouldn’t be. It’s a nomination to no where. Fianna Fail are in a vote management battle in South Tipp. Their “big name candidate” is Mansergh but he has limited vote pulling power due to his lack of the personal touch. So McGrath and Ambrose are strategically selected candidates in an effort to bring in votes for Mansergh.

However neither of these really has a profile outside of their local areas and FF HQ have no intention of allowing them build a profile in case they take votes from Mansergh and allow another party in for Davern’s seat. Ambrose is doing a solo run to try and boost her profile but has too much ground to make up to go from an unknown to having the name recognition to pick up transfers outside of Clonmel. Dennehey’s outburst is as much about running to the teacher (HQ) to tell on Ambrose’s solo efforts as it is any deep feelings that Carrick should be represented by local people.

Hayes will top the poll and with Davern gone he should come in on the first count. Healy will hold his seat but will need transfers from some of his “independent” running mates. Mansergh will be sweating over the last seat and should take it without reaching the quota because the other candidates behind him (from all parties) are definitions of mediocre.

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