Fact Checking Fine Gael

I am a bit bored so I thought I would fact check a Fine Gael press release: Ireland’s three-year descent into a vicious & violent society—O’Keeffe. Also the fact that he uses the line “These figures do not lie” means I cannot resist.

Since 2003, Michael McDowell’s first full year in charge of Justice:

• Murder has increased by 25%;
• Rape has increased by 33%;
• And firearms offences have increased by 43%.

The figures I use are from the Garda statistics for 2003 and 2005.

Firstly,

Murders: 45 (2003); 54 (2005); an increase of 9 or 20%.

Now I am not sure how he is defining rape, so I will take the Rape of a Female and Sexual Assault figures:

Sexual Assaults: 1449 (2003); 1104 (2005); A drop of about 23%.
Rape of a Female: 315 (2003); 377 (2005); Increase of 20%.

I am not sure about how to deal with firearms as there is no actual firearms section in the Garda statistics, so I am going to take a guess and use Robberies with Firearms, thinking that they will cover most offences. If anyone wants to add anything to that, let me know.

Robberies with Firearms: 313 (2003); 353 (2005); A 13% increase.

In that time, the population has increased by about 8%.

Now on further thought I am guessing from the press release line,

The recent CSO figures on crime levels

He is talking of the Third Quarter Crime Statistics and comparing it to the same 2003 quarter, which doesn’t really fit in with the sentence “full year in charge.” Anyway, from those figures, the change is:

So if the figures don’t lie, why are there differences? Interestingly enough, the CSO figures show a rise in crime from Q2-Q3 of 2006 above the norm.