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Answering Adam: The FF/LAB Fightout
Read more about: Coalition, Fianna Fail, Labour Party 
Adam asks why Fianna Fáil have been going on the offensive against Labour. Is it because they’re scared? Are they calling Rabbitte’s anti-coalition bluff? Or is it something else altogether?
Wagger believes that there is a soft vote that can transfer easily between Fianna Fáil and Labour. The average working Joe or Josephine Six Pack, as our trans-Atlantic cousins would have it, isn’t too interested in the PDs, probably doesn’t like Fine Gael at the moment unless they’re already a committed Blueshirt, and thinks the Greens are a bit kooky. Certainly wouldn’t touch the Shinners with a 40 foot pole.
So, those portion of voters, whatever size that segment is, time and time again come down to choosing between Fianna Fáil and Labour. In 1992, they chose Labour. Since then, they’ve chosen Fianna Fáil. Perhaps, in that context, part of Labour’s problem in 1997 was not going in with Fianna Fáil, but rather going in with Fine Gael.
If those voters are fed up with the health service, the traffic, the rising cost of living, etc.—and those are the key issues that will resonate with those voters—then they could easily switch to Labour. What might stop them is the economy. So, Fianna Fáil will hammer Labour on the economy, knowing that however much Labour shout back about the 1990s, most people will only think of the present situation, and will only hear the first bit of the debate.
Now, Wagger is sure that there are plenty out there who will be pointing out Rabbitte’s repeated assertions that Labour won’t go into Government with Fianna Fáil. However, Wagger is also fairly sure that these repeated assertions have been less frequent and less vociferous in recent months. Either Rabbitte is trying to create ground for himself to go in if and when the numbers don’t add up for the Rainbow, or he’s accepting that he may have to step aside after the election, and is giving his successor a soft landing.
Whether or not a new Labour leader would accept Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach, especially after the Manchester/Loan scandals, there are plenty of other potential Taoisigh in the FF ranks that would surely be suitable to them, Dermot Ahern not least of them (his comments on Questions & Answers about being more Labour than PD, while a slip, won’t have gone unnoticed).
The final question then, would be whether a Labour Party Árd Fheis would accept a Programme for Government involving Fianna Fáil. Wagger is sure that delegates would be wary of repeating what they consider their mistakes of 1992-1997. However, an aging set of Labour TDs may see this as their last chance to grasp the levers of power, and may push it through by force of will alone.
But back to the main point; if Fianna Fáil want to hold on to their 39%, it’s going to have to be at the expense of Labour, especially in Dublin, and they know that. For now, they’ll keep attacking Labour, and they’ll leave the post-election negotiations to sort themselves out.
the anti -labour campaign is real
Olivia o Leary journalist has a new book which is being plugged on various radio stations.
She said on rte radio that as a poll. corr. on the gallery in Leinster House she watches the body language of Bertie and others and Bertie when he is being attacked by Pat Rabbitte jams the lips together and stares at his big black shoes. He only reacts to Rabbitte like this she says.
Fianna Fail and the pds are stifled for the forseeable future from giving the shinners a bollocking as they like to do, because of the peace process and how vulnerable that process is for the moment.
the ard fheis said it all for me the good times are rolling they said over and over again,
but, it was never so difficult to buy your first house or unit as the aussies call them unless you want a forty year mortgage, and some cant make it …….
This government have put a lot of young adults under a huge amount of pressure.
David mc Williams book and current programme describe it well
I referred to this paranoia that Bertie seems to have about Pat Rabbitte and the Labour Party at the moment. I believe that the reason for these personal attacks on Pat Rabbitte is that there is an awareness amongst Fianna Fail that Labour are what stands between them and a succesful election.
If memory serves me right when the Rainbow Coalition was in power the last time for a few years back in the Nineties the Economy trundled along very nicely ‘Thank You’ and all this scare mongering by the “Party of Corruption and it’s neutered little puppy Michael that they alone and only them can manage the economy is as laughable as it is untrue.
The only blip in the Nation’s finances that I can remember in recent years was just after the last election when Charlie our former esteemed Minister of Finance came into work one morning after the lies he told during the election campaign an found that things weren’t quiet as rosy as he said they were six weeks earlier and introduced a series of new charges and cuts.
Not to mention the inflation rates, Limerick Lad! 1.9% under Quinn, 3.5% under McCreevy, 3.2% under Cowen.
I would have thought it’s pretty obvious why FF are focussing on Pat Rabbite – with his Workers Party background they’re able to raise sustainable question marks about his potential as Finance Minsiter. No?
Except that Rabbite has bent over backwards to illustrate how Labour’s economic policy mirrors that of the Fianna Fail/PDs to assure outside investors that with Labour in Government there will be no change to fiscal policy. If you want to go back in time to look at backgrounds…I’m sure you could dredge up plenty of errors that Fianna Fail made while in Government that impeded the economy rather than propelled it.
“Not to mention the inflation rates, Limerick Lad! 1.9% under Quinn, 3.5% under McCreevy, 3.2% under Cowen.”
Keith, don’t you know that when inflation is low it is because of the actions and financial competence of the Minister of Finance and the Government but when it rises it’s because of outside forces not in the control of the Minister and the Government to which he belongs. LOL
Donagh – the point you make about mistakes in Fianna Fail’s past is fair enough, but in Rabbite, we’re talking about a former leading light of the Workers Party! FF know that having a Workers Party man in charge of the nation’s finances just isn’t going to was with the voters.
One other point – if Labour aren’t going to make any changes to fiscal policy, why would someone vote for them???
I still think it’s scare tactics. I admit though that Labour have a problem differentiating themselves. When things are going swimmingly why should people change. The only reason could be that they want fresh ideas, that their quality of life is not what they had hoped. Now I know Fianna Fail have become reenergised of late as a result of the surge in the polls, but sometimes people just want a change. I suspect that the reason is similar to what Seamus Ryan has said, that if Labour manage to increase their vote that they’ll be able to make it in to government.