My own feeling is that they might just have gotten away with the switch if they’d presented it to the electorate and asked for approval, but an unexpected (and not especially wanted) change of government without bothering to ask the voters what they thought doomed them.

They managed to stay at around 15-16% in the polls during the summer of ’95, but by the autumn they were back down to 10% (post-Lowry?) and haven’t budged much from there ever since.

I think Labour missed a trick, and Paddy Matthews has it more or less right… and I say that as someone sympathetic towards Labour…

Copyright 1994 The Irish Times
The Irish Times

November 28, 1994, CITY EDITION

SECTION: FRONT PAGE; Pg. 1

LENGTH: 802 words

HEADLINE: Coalition should return, say 63% in poll
Fianna Fail support is up from 35% to 44%

BYLINE: By GERALDINE KENNEDY, Political Correspondent

BODY:
THE Labour Party leader, Mr Dick Spring, should enter a new coalition alliance with Fianna Fail, and fewer than three in 10 voters want a “rainbow” coalition led by the Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll published today.

Fianna Fail’s support nationally has increased by nine percentage points, with an even higher increase in Dublin since Mr Bertie Ahern’s election as leader just over a week ago, and almost two thirds of voters favour the formation of a new Fianna Fail/Labour government, according to the poll.

Mr Ahern is the preferred choice of almost half of the electorate (49 per cent) to become Taoiseach, including one in four of Fine Gael and Labour supporters. There is little support, only 11 per cent, for the concept of a rotating Taoiseach. Mr Spring is favoured by 23 per cent of voters for Taoiseach, while Mr Bruton is the choice of only 10 per cent.

There has been a significant shift in public support for all of the parties in the seven days since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll. The state of the parties in today’s poll, excluding the 11 per cent undecided, is: Fianna Fail 44 per cent, up nine percentage points since Mr Ahern assumed the leadership from the acting Taoiseach, Mr Reynolds; Fine Gael 23 per cent, up two points and regaining its role as the second largest party; Labour 18 per cent, down four points in a week; Progressive Democrats 5 per cent, down four points; Democratic Left 2 per cent, down three points; Green Party 4 per cent, no change; Sinn Fein 2 per cent, no change; Workers’ Party 0 per cent, down one point; and Others 2 per cent, no change.

The poll was conducted among a quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout the 41 constituencies over a six hour period last Friday afternoon and evening, following the first round of meetings between Mr Spring and the main party leaders about the formation of a new coalition arrangement.

The results of the poll are bad for Mr Bruton and Fine Gael, even with the possibility being held out for Mr Spring to become rotating Taoiseach to facilitate the formation of a rainbow coalition. A Fine Gael dominated government, whether of three or four party combination, is seen by fewer than three in every 10 voters – 28 per cent – as being in the best interests of the country. Mr Bruton is the choice of only 36 per cent of Fine Gael supporters as Taoiseach and, reflecting the divisions within the party, only 13 per cent of Fine Gael voters favour the concept of rotating the top post with Mr Spring. One quarter of Fine Gael supporters favour a Fianna Fail/Labour government and Mr Ahern as Taoiseach.

The overwhelming majority of voters, 71 per cent, believe that a new coalition government should be formed from the parties in the existing Dail, with support for a general election dropping from 28 per cent to 22 per cent in the past week.

A Fianna Fail/Labour government is seen by a huge majority of 63 per cent of voters – 93 per cent of Fianna Fail, 24 per cent of Fine Gael, 64 per cent of Labour and 33 per cent of PD supporters among them – as being in the best interests of the State. Some 28 per cent of voters would prefer a rainbow combination, with 13 per cent opting for Fine Gael Labour and the PDs, 8 per cent, for Fine Gael, Labour and DL, and 7 per cent for Fine Gael, Labour, PDs and DL.

Some 49 per cent of voters believe that Mr Ahern should be the new Taoiseach. He is the preferred choice of 79 per cent of Fianna Fail, 24 per cent of Fine Gael, 25 per cent of Labour and 22 per cent of PD supporters. Mr Spring is the choice of 23 per cent of the electorate, and 55 per cent of Labour supporters. Mr Bruton is the first choice of to per cent of voters, and 36 per cent of Fine Gael supporters. Some 6 per cent would favour Mr Ahern and Mr Spring as rotating Taoisigh. Only 5 per cent would favour Mr Bruton and Mr Spring as rotating the position.

There is a big boost for Mr Ahern and Fianna Fail in the poll. The party’s share of the net vote has risen from 35 per cent to 44 per cent in the week since he became leader; the core vote has correspondingly increased from 28 per cent to 39 per cent. The biggest increase in core support, 17 points, is in Dublin, followed by Connacht/Ulster, but there is a marked rise in every region. There is also a 13 per cent increase in support from ABCI voters, the volatile middle class which has deserted Fianna Fail in recent general elections.

The only note of caution for Mr Ahern, a week after his election, is that he is starting from a much lower Fianna Fail base of support – 44 per cent – than Mr Reynolds had when he took over from Mr Charles Haughey in February 1992. Fianna Fail’s net support, at that stage, was 53 per cent.

LOAD-DATE: November 28, 1994

I didn’t say anywhere that it did.

One curious aspect of the story above is that while the poll asked voters whether they wanted a new coalition government or another election, it didn’t specify whether the new government would simply be a continuation of the existing arrangement or a new arrangement led by Fine Gael.

The fact that 74% of Fianna Fáil supporters and wanted a new government rather than an election, whereas there was a much lower support for a new government among Fine Gaelers, suggests that “a new government” was widely understood as being a continuation of the existing coalition.

The possibility of the new government being led by the least popular party leader didn’t come into the reckoning until very late on in the crisis, after talks between Ahern and Spring had broken down on some unexpected and pretty obscure point.

My own belief is that it was Labour’s sudden switch away from what looked like a done deal with the new, untainted, Fianna Fáil leader and installation of John Bruton as Taoiseach was what finally soured the electorate on them.

One unexpected decision could be coped with, but doing it twice in a row damaged them fatally. The gains of 1992 disappeared completely, and they’ve been stuck at that pre-1992 level ever since (taking into account the acquisition of DL).

Copyright 1994 The Irish Times
The Irish Times

November 21, 1994, CITY EDITION

SECTION: FRONT PAGE; Pg. 1

LENGTH: 655 words

HEADLINE: FF poll slump puts Spring in key position to negotiate coalition
Poor support rating for Bruton bad news for Fine Gael

BYLINE: By GERALDINE KENNEDY, Political Correspondent

BODY:
FIANNA Fail stands at an all time low of 35 per cent, with a core vote of 28 per cent, following the resignations of the acting Taoiseach, Mr Albert Reynolds, and the President of the High Court, Mr Harry Whelehan, over the handling of the Brendan Smyth extradition case, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, published today.

For the first time, the Labour Party, with 22 per cent support, has passed out Fine Gael to become the second most favoured party. In Dublin, it is winning more support than Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.

The acting Taoiseach and forrner Fianna Fail leader, Mr Reynolds, is blamed by 63 per cent of the electorate and almost half – 48 per cent – of Fianna Fail voters for the fall of the Government.

The former Tanaiste, Mr Dick Spring, is in a formidable position to begin negotiations with the new leader of Fianna Fail, Mr Bertie Ahern, or the Opposition parties in the Dail on the formation of a new coalition. Apart from the increase in support for the Labour Party, his personal standing as leader has risen by 18 points to 62 per cent.

Two thirds of the electorate would like to see a new coalition government being formed from the parties in the present Dail. Only 28 per cent of voters believe that a general election should be held.

Mr Spring is also vindicated in his views about Mr Whelehan’s suitability for Presidency of the High Court, with 75 per cent of respondents – and 70 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters – not in favour of his appointment.

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout the Republic last Friday, following the resignations of Mr Reynolds and Mr Whelehan on Thursday and before the election of Mr Ahern as leader of Fianna Fail on Saturday.

The state of the parties, excluding the 18 per cent undecideds, is: Fianna Fail 35 per cent; Labour 22 per cent; Fine Gael 21 per cent; Progressive Democrats 9 per cent; Democratic Left 5 per cent; Green Party 4 per cent; Sinn Fein 2 per cent; Workers’ Party 1 per cent; Others 1 per cent. The Fianna Fail core vote has dropped to 28 per cent, the lowest in the history of opinion polling. The Labour core vote is one point ahead of Fine Gael’s, the two parties standing at 8 and 17 per cent respectively.

Mr Sprg,in at 62 per cent, has the highest satisfaction rating of the party leaders in the wake of last week’s tumultuous events. His position is closely challenged by Ms Mary Harney, the PD leader, with 61 per cent, an increase of 14 points since August; she has a 96 per cent satisfaction rating among PD voters. The standing of the leader of Democratic Left, Mr Proinsias De Rossa, has risen by 17 points in the same three month period to 55 per cent.

Despite the opportunities presented to Opposition leaders in the past week, the poll findings are very bad news for Fine Gael. The personal standing of the Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, is 35 per cent, an increase of only two points in three months. Some 47 per cent of voters – among them 24 per cent of Fine Gael and8 4per cent of Labour supporters – are dissatisfied at the manner in which Mr Bruton is doing his job.

There are large majorities in all parties favouring the formation of a new coalition government rather than a general election: 74 per cent in Fianna Fail; 59 per cent in Fine Gael; 73 per cent in Labour; 68 per cent in the PDs and 52 per cent of others.

Some 63 per cent believe that Mr Reynolds was mainly responsible for the fall of the Government; 4 per cent attribute blame to Mr Spring; and 12 per cent hold that Mr Reynolds and Mr Spring were equally responsible.

Only one third (32 per cent) of voters believe that a government led by Mr Reynolds stood the best chance of achieving peace in Northern Ireland. Some 64 per cent think that a government led by somebody else would have an equal chance of achieving peace.

LOAD-DATE: November 21, 1994

My memory of the period is that the spike into the high teens came during the crisis over Whelehan when it looked as if the Government would fall and there would be an election, but before Labour put Bruton into office.