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Referendum in March
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The Sunday Times reports that we might be having a referendum in March about the new agreement in the North. Does that mean we are likely to get a few more referenda in March?
The most obvious referendum we are likely to get is one about recognition of children’s rights in the constitution. This came to light after the statutory rape crisis of a few months ago. But as that caused a big drop in the polls for Fianna Fail—which they recovered from last week—I wonder do the government want to remind people of that crisis? Either way, I think they will not have much choice in the matter and, with a referendum date set, they will add that to the ballot. But will they add a gay marriage piece to the ballot? I doubt it, even though most people think that “it is not any of my business” as shown by recent voxpops in Cavan on Newstalk. But the government think it would be too controversial to run close to the election and might not even be required anyway.
Next year could turn out to be a chocablock year in politics.
It’s possible that a referendum on the rape law (to remove the ignorance defence) might be pushed through, that will depend on how the Committee currently looking at the issue reports (I think that’s due in November). However, it’s important not to confuse that with the wider issue of enshrining children’s rights in the Constitution, which came up at the last month’s UNCRC Committee hearings in Geneva. While some assurances have been given in this regard, it’s a highly complicated area (as seen, for example, in the recent adoption and blood transfusion cases). I doubt if enough thought has been given to exactly how such an amendment might be phrased, and it’s unlikely to have been completed by March (even assuming the government wanted to hassle of trying to get it passed).
A key background issue for Bertie is whether he chooses to go for a general election at the same time, which will be very tempting. If so, he might fear an overcrowded ballot if they put several referendums on at the same time, or he might fear something potentially more divisive than an endorsement of St Andrews will be. Today’s UK Times has a little more on the thinking behind a referendum: Blair and Hain fear that if they use Assembly elections to endorse the agreement in the six counties, then the DUP and the Shinners will sweep to dominance and the other parties will be gone. But a referendum would then force acknowledgement that the GFA is being changed, forcing one in the Republic.
A general election on the same day as the referendum could be dangerous for Bertie – he could leak a lot of votes to the Shinners that way.
On the other hand, any referendum in the South on this is going to give the Shinners a platform. I doubt Bertie will want to do it, and he’ll delay it until after the election if there’s any leeway at all in the Attorney General’s advice.
Someone on Morning Ireland also raised the point that in order to be balanced, TV and radio will have to give the same level of coverage to the anti as the pro side. That means the RSF and similarly mad groups getting access to the airwaves.
Another bloody referendum over the North. How many times will we change our constitution to suit the parties up there only to have them walk away from their side of the agreement. If we keep enshrining agreements in the constitution only to have the whole thing fall apart we may as well just schedule a new referendum every 5 years for the next 50 years.