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A Bloodless Coup
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Emerging consensus is that McDowell’s outriders are doing the job in securing a bloodless transition. In terms of policy the party is likely to move into a far more strident position that before–if for no other reason that to solidify identity after 10 years of coalition government.
Personally I still think enough TDs have kept the powder dry for another candidate to emerge, particularly if Parlon/O’Donnell come to some running arrangement. The desirability of a coronation is questionable also. The party must decide on a direction for 2007. The harsh rhetorical style of McDowell alienates as much as persuades and, granted it’s only 8% they need, McDowell may not be the man to deliver it. O’Donnell however has her own weaknesses.
Surely the profile in the recent times has not been sufficient to get her a flying start, yet if a campaign ensued she is a master of ‘quick burst’ publicity.
It may all be academic if on Monday there is only one name in the hat. I’m still banking on an earlier election.
Now by my calculations McDowell has at the moment 18% of the vote.
Now if we take Tom Parlon’s word that a third of the ordinary members are in his place and likely to vote for him that gives tom about 10% of the vote.
No idea how others will vote but still a long way to go.
Cian I agree about the early election. Bertie’s statement yesterday left the door wide open. I just can’t see the FFers stomaching McDowell as 2nd in command to Bertie.
Good luck McDowell. Finally a leader who calls a spade a spade instead of pandering to dogooders of Political-Correctness – notable on immigration, ASBOs and the Provisional ‘Republican’ movement.