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Open seat in Donegal SW
Read more about: Connaught-Ulster, Donegal South West, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael 
RTE reports that FG’s Dinny McGinley TD is standing down at the next election. Going by the last election results (which you can get to from the blog links above), FG will have little problem holding the seat since their 2nd candidate had as strong a first preference base as McGinley. FF probably have bigger problems, as the constituency exhibits the “2 out of 3” factor which has benefitted FF as long as their vote stays above a critical level, but may not the next time as the other parties chip away.
UPDATE: Damien Blake gives the view from Letterkenny.
Phoenix ran a piece two or three issues back on the state of the parties in Donegal SW. THe theory was that the government vote was in serious danger there-between industry, fishermen and general unhappiness with government one of the two TDs is likely to get the boot.
Phoenix reckoned Coughlan was the loser as the most high profile government member while pat the cope was clearly fighting the fishermens corner. We have to wait and see. I guess it all comes down to the strength of FGs replacement candidate considered alongside the possible votes for Pearce Doherty.
Personally I wouldnt rule out 2-1 FF/SF but i think it will be a major uphill battle for FF to do it. They wont be helped by ongoing bad news and bad feeling in that part of the world.
I should probably point out I choose DSW at random. I should like to take the opportunity to wish Deputy McGinley all the best. I’ve met Dinny a few times and always found him to be a courteous and dedicated individual.