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The dangers of the 1 in 3 question for FF TDs
Read more about: Democracy, Donegal South West, Fianna Fail 
Ireland once had what was termed a 2 and 1/2 party system. It might be now said to have a 2 and 7/8s party system.The Irish electoral system has by in large been kinder to the larger parties in terms of seat bonuses when comparing to the smaller parties.. Both FF and FG have benefited from this since independence. However, FF have been by far the greater beneficiary in the last two general elections. In the ‘02 General election they got somewhat less that 42% and got 49% of the seats available. One of the many contributory factors, though not the only one is the number of 3 seat constituencies in areas where FF are strongest.
However, this very preponderance of 3 seat constituencies in which FF hold 2 of the 3 seats becomes a major issue for that party when their national support drops below the figure of 1 in 3.
The Irish electoral system of Proportional Representation (PR) by means of the Single Transfer Vote (STV) actually will guarantee you 2 seats out of 3 for 50% +2 votes of the total valid poll if you run just 2 candidates and if it is evenly shared between those two candidates. This amounts to a vote of a slight bit more than 50% getting you all of 66% of the seats in those 3 seats constituencies. This is a whopping 15% bonus. Not bad at all for a supposedly proportionate voting system. Indeed, in practical terms getting 40% will usually mean you get 2 seats in such 3 seat constituencies if it has been reasonably competitive, say if the smaller parties such as the PDs, Greens, and SF have contested along with an independent or non-party candidate. In order to ensure that the % figures remains on the right side of 40% FF will often run sweeper or some might say spoiler candidates who are designed not alone to ensure that their total amounts to over 40% but that the remaining vote can’t coalesce sufficiently around two of the remaining candidates. This increases the chances of a result of 2 from 3 even if one of those two is elected without reaching the quota.
However, as the total % available to the 2 main FF candidates drifts down towards 1/3 or 33% the likelihood of another 2 candidates getting enough votes to squeeze out one of those 2 FF candidates starts to increases exponentially. The other factor here is the intra-party competition and the tradition of appeals to “lend me your No.1, sure John is ok.” This has lead to the situation arising, which seems to cause such surprise in so many observers from overseas, of long time sitting TDs losing their seats to their running mates who some might have been as being on the under billing.
Taking Donegal SW as an example FF got 42% there which mirrors their national result almost exactly and their two candidates Pat ‘the Cope’ and Agriculture Minister Mary Couglan would at this point be considered to be relatively safe. Or are they
Donegal SW in 2002
FF Pat Gallagher 7,740 21.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 7,257 20.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 4,378 12.29% 0.49
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FG James White 4,680 13.13% 0.53
SF Pearse Doherty 2,696 7.57% 0.30
IND Joe Kelly 3,091 8.67% 0.35 (5)
IND Thomas Pringle 2,630 7.38% 0.30
Lab Séamas Rodgers 1,079 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 1,133 3.18% 0.13
IND Gwen Breslin 951 2.67% 0.11
Now, imagine if the national picture is again mirrored here with exactly the same line up and FF were to drop 6%, coupled with a corresponding reversal in the rates of transfers that occurred in ’02. One possible group of scenarios is that the loss is evenly divided between the two FF candidates. In a situation where the 6% were to coalesce around one of the unsuccessful candidates White or Doherty, or the final successful candidate McGinley then they should be able to ensure that 2 from those three would be elected. Only if the 6% is scattered evenly (with the attendant attrition when transferred) would the two FF TDs be favoured to survive. In ’02 the transfer rate to the FF candidates was 25% compared to up to 65% internal to the non FF candidates. Even when Doherty of SF was eliminated in ’02 40% of his vote was available to be transferred between the two remaining FG candidates.
FF Pat Gallagher 18.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 17.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 12.29% 0.49 (18.29% 0.49)
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FG James White 13.13% 0.53 (19.13% 0.53)
SF Pearse Doherty 7.57% 0.30 (13.57% 0.30)
IND Joe Kelly 8.67% 0.35
IND Thomas Pringle 7.38% 0.30
Lab Séamas Rodgers 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 3.18% 0.13
IND Gwen Breslin 2.67% 0.11
Couple such a reduction in the total party vote available with the greatest fear of any Irish politician, that the perception that they are safe will get out and they will see that on election night their 1st preference vote will go wandering about assisting others who were not in any real danger at all. Some have made a tradition of this electoral poor mouth and become such quota sitters that in area where once their party challenged for two seats they are now fighting it out over the one (Kerry North is an example of this for FF, Galway West for FG).
So in the DSW situation outlined above where the 6% is evenly distributed would most likely not happen at all. In another group of scenarios the drop affects one candidate significantly more than the other. In that situation we would get the following.
FF Pat Gallagher 20.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 15.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 12.29% 0.49 (18.29% 0.49)
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FG James White 13.13% 0.53 (19.13% 0.53)
SF Pearse Doherty 7.57% 0.30 (13.57% 0.30)
IND Joe Kelly 8.67% 0.35
IND Thomas Pringle 7.38% 0.30
Lab Séamas Rodgers 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 3.18% 0.13
IND Gwen Breslin 2.67% 0.11
In this situation Coughlan could not possibly be saved. Note the drop we are talking about from 42% to 36% is not as great as some of the polls are currently predicting. Though it would still represent a huge loss in terms of what FF have gotten previously.
Very interesting anayasis. So would you see a first passed the post method better or a list system.
I’ve always viewed first past the post is a terrible system for any number of reasons, and the list system isn’t going to come in for the Dail itself. Turkeys, Christmas, voting.
I wasn’t having a go at FF, it is simply that they are the ones in the position that the situation that gives them 2/3 from about 40% of the vote turns around to bite them in the rear when they slip down to 33% of the vote. It would happen to anyone else in the same numbers position.
I’ve always thought the Seanad is the place for a party list based system based on the euro constituencies or the provinces with Dublin as a separate area. Have a Seanad of 80 folks. 15 from each euro area, keep the 11 Taoiseach nominees and then 9 elected nationally or selected from a phone in to Joe-Duffy or George Hook or something.
It would allow people of some ability from other backgrounds who aren’t quite the shaking babies and kissing hands lot that we have at present.
There is a view out there that our current system is great because we get people who are ‘representative’ of the man in the street. Well, the man in the street isn’t very representative of the woman in the shop, or anyone else for that matter.
Intersting point on representation Dan, I agree with you broadly that politicians are representative of a certain beast in irish society, the loud, politically active local busybody. Giving wider spaces to make decisions publicly and generate wider opinion input irish democracy could be deepened and strengthened.
Personally i think that democratic government is as much a frame of mind for wider society as it is a theory of government in the strict sense. Fostering such an attitude publicly is of great importance now.
On the numbers themselves, i think that STV provides for some of the most interesting elections since as you point out each constituency has its own complexion, i would shy away from most types of reform in favour of strong results or some other since the other systems are equally problematic.
I see the point of Taoiseachs choices in the seanad but if they have a majority in both houses whats the point of the second house? And if the second is possibly conflicting whats the point of such labourious government?