Polls, Lies and Statistics

So its that time again when everyone rushes to figure out what the latest poll is saying about the state of voter intentions. RedC research, has the latest poll out in tomorrow’s edition of the Sunday Business Post. As RedC use a different methodology, its only fair to stick in the TNS / MRBI figures which use the traditional survey approach rather than the telephone approach used by RedC.

Fianna Fail 38% (Apr 06) to 35% (May 06) [-3 %] RedC
37% (Jan 06) to 31% (May 06) [-6 %] TNS/MRBI

Fine Gael 23% (Apr 06) to 26% (May 06) [+3 %] RedC
24% (Jan 06) to 28% (May 06) [+4 %] TNS/MRBI

Labour 11% (Apr 06) to 14% (May 06) [+3 %] RedC
16% (Jan 06) to 15% (May 06) [-1 %] TNS/MRBI

Sinn Fein 8% (Apr 06) to 8% (May 06) [No Change] RedC
9% (Jan 06) to 9% (May 06) [No Change] TNS/MRBI

Greens 7% (Apr 06) to 6% (May 06) [-1 %] RedC
4% (Jan 06) to 5% (May 06) [+1 %] TNS/MRBI

Progressive Democrats 4% (Apr 06) to3% (May 06) [-1 %] RedC
3% (Jan 06) to 3% (May 06) [No Change] TNS/MRBI

These figures show a distinct decline with support for the government and really shows the race opening up. The Fine Gael / Labour figures are 40% (RedC) and 43% (TNS/MRBI). These numbers are interesting in light of previous calculations by Fine Gael director of elections, Frank Flannery who suggested at 26% (the current RedC figure) that FG would take 19 extra seats to 51 seats while at 28% (the current TNS/MRBI figure) that FG would take 26 extra seats to 58 seats. This analysis was based on a national constituency analysis combining private party polls and public opinion polls as well as local feedback from the constituencies. Gerry has some good coverage on this topic. I’m sure we’ll hear every type and form of theory from the thread on politics.ie.

Its early days yet, the summer silly season is at hand, so polls aren’t going to be of much validity until after the Dail resumes in the Autumn but it looks likes the current rainy weather will reflect the mood of many worried Fianna Fail backbenchers on reading these figures.

UPDATE: RedC/Sunday Post Business poll is now online.

UPDATE: Comparisons with all the previous RedC poll are available over at RedC in this nice little graphic.