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Photo-op wars
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Tipperary South
Sorry for not updating the local news for a while but it takes time, something I am short of at the moment. I do hope to get back to it as there are great stories in the regional papers. From the Nationalist (South Tipperary):
Fianna Fail general election candidate Cllr. Siobhan Ambrose has been attacked by a party colleague for ‘abducting’ ministers who visit the constituency. Former Fianna Fail mayor of Clonmel Cllr .Niall Dennehy hit out at Cllr. Ambrose and said the scramble to “abduct Ministers as they descend on our shores was nauseating”. In response Cllr. Ambrose said she was surprised and disappointed that Cllr. Dennehy had “taken this line”. She said it was clear Cllr. Dennehy had a problem with her arranging meetings for constituents with visiting ministers.
But it shows signs of a deeper rift in the party in South Tipp:
This week Cllr. Dennehy challenged Cllr. Ambrose on her behaviour during a recent visit by Minister Eamonn O’Cuiv to Carrick on Suir. He also repeated his criticism of Cllr. Ambrose for arriving in Minister Dick Roche’s car for the opening of Glenconnor Housing Scheme while he was mayor of the town last June. Internal wrangling within Fianna Fail in the build up to the General Election was further exposed when Cllr. Dennehy said that some “bully boy” elements in the party were ignoring the will of the party convention which saw Cllr. Ambrose come third to Cllr. Matty McGrath and Senator Martin Mansergh.
Isn’t it truly shocking appearing in the same car as Dick Roche. Well, at least it can be said that car pooling is environmentally friendly.
Dennehey is seriously pissed off that Ambrose got the nod ahead of him but he shouldn’t be. It’s a nomination to no where. Fianna Fail are in a vote management battle in South Tipp. Their “big name candidate” is Mansergh but he has limited vote pulling power due to his lack of the personal touch. So McGrath and Ambrose are strategically selected candidates in an effort to bring in votes for Mansergh.
However neither of these really has a profile outside of their local areas and FF HQ have no intention of allowing them build a profile in case they take votes from Mansergh and allow another party in for Davern’s seat. Ambrose is doing a solo run to try and boost her profile but has too much ground to make up to go from an unknown to having the name recognition to pick up transfers outside of Clonmel. Dennehey’s outburst is as much about running to the teacher (HQ) to tell on Ambrose’s solo efforts as it is any deep feelings that Carrick should be represented by local people.
Hayes will top the poll and with Davern gone he should come in on the first count. Healy will hold his seat but will need transfers from some of his “independent” running mates. Mansergh will be sweating over the last seat and should take it without reaching the quota because the other candidates behind him (from all parties) are definitions of mediocre.
Colm, no proper analysis of Tipp South would be complete without referring to Labour’s Phil Prendergast who is making great inroads in South Tipperary. My information is that Phil is being well received on the ground in South Tipp particularly in Clonmel where she is a recognised vote getter and Carrick on Suir. I am surprised that you attempt to analyse this constituency without referring to Phil’s candidacy. It makes me think that your analysis is somewhat biased!!!
Hi Seamus, Phil was included in the other mediocre candidates. But if you want the bad news analysis then here it is. On an initial review of the last election results you would consider her to be a potential challenger for a seat as she topped the poll in Clonmel running as an independent. However like Ambrose she has no profile outside of Clonmel (although isn’t hamstrung by Labour HQ in her attempts to boost that profile). More crucially her core vote in Clonmel is a Healy vote so she is likely to poll extremely badly in terms of first preferences within her own locality come a general election. Also while the reaction to her in areas of Carrick and Cahir may be positive she will remain behind Healy on their ballot papers. Healy has a good vote management machine and will outperform the limited Labour presence in the county. Prendergast will take most of Healy’s transfers so if Healy tops the poll with a huge surplus then she will be neck and neck with Mansergh. Or if Healy is eliminated before her then she will take his seat. However neither of these events are going to happen. It will he Hayes, Healy and finally Mansergh (after McGrath & Ambrose are eliminated). I’m afraid Phil will be lucky to survive 4 counts once the Healy machine is finished with her.
Interesting analysis Colm. There are those in Clonmel(not necessarily Labour Party people) who say that Phil was one of the reasons that Healy received his high vote in Clonmel and that he has not been as active on the ground since Phil joined the Labour Party. However not being from Clonmel I stand to be corrected on this. No matter which way you look at it this will be an interesting constitutency.