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Labour Gael’s greatest enemy
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour Party, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Uncategorized
In an episode of the Simpsons, Bart runs for class president against Martin. He runs a blistering campaign, wiping Martin out. Everyone thought he had won.
I think I know who is going to lose this election for Labour Gael. Stop me if someone else talked about this before, but great minds think alike and all. It is not Bertie, McDowell, Rabbitte or Enda Kenny. It is that guy or gal who goes, “Do you want to take a survey?”
Polls are ten-a-penny now; we have more than one a month now. I try keeping track of them all here, but it gets monotonous. It strikes me this is the reason for Labour Gael’s misfortune. In the recent Irish Times survey, 42% were supporting FF/PD while 41% voting FG/Lab/Green, yet 57% of people believe that FF/PD will be the next leaders while only 17% say Green/Labour Gael. The reason is very simple: with all the polls we are seeing with Labour stagnant and Fine Gael improving but not enough, there is a certain inevitability in the poll numbers that a FF/PD government is in the offing. While combined the Green/Labour Gael vote is close, Labour and Fine Gael seem not to play up the Green card and thus are pretty much always behind FF/PD.
People do not believe Enda Kenny can be the next Taoiseach. He certainly does not have the charisma to lead people. But the poll numbers that seem to suggest they have no hope are effecting people. Over 50% of alternative voters don’t believe they will win. There is a great danger for the opposition that even if they have 41% of the vote, their vote will not turn up simply because they won’t see the point. They don’t believe that they can make a difference.
There is a certain credibility gap in the opposition. On the Late Late a few weeks ago Brendan Gleeson asked where the shadow health minister was. And indeed that is the question: where is the shadow health minister? Other than in Fine Gael’s shadow fear, sorry, “justice” ministry, where are they?
That, coupled to the fact that the polls are consequently putting them down, is what is making people believe that the alternative has already lost. Why back a loser?
In the end, Martin won the election. Though defeated and demoralised, they voted. In such surety of their victory, Bart’s campaign went partying and never voted. That is what Labour Gael need to do. Even though their voters believe they have no chance, they have to get them to turn up and FF/PD have to remember that people vote for you on the day not in the poll.
I think the week in politics tonight confirmed that Kenny is dragging down Labour. And it’s not as if RTE didn’t do their best to hand it to Kenny on a plate. They put an increasingly irate Ivan Yates on the “neutral” panel and forgot to tell the punters that he is a senior Fine Gael strategist and former minister in a Fine Gael government. They played the worst possible clips of Ahern (lots to pick from) but then they played the best possible clips of Enda Kenny (only two to pick from and they managed to find both of them). Finally the “neutral” Yank did his best to lead the focus group to the Kenny well but they refused to drink much to his astonishment after the way they panned Bertie.
The simple fact is not enough people on this island think Enda Kenny can lead a government. Nice guy. Means well. Would like to have a pint with him. But we wouldn’t hire him to run the country.
However the focus group were strongly in favour of a Fianna Fail Labour Coaliation. The polls back them up. On their own the current options of FF-PD-Ind versus FG-Lab-Grn-Soc-SF-Ind just don’t add up to a stable government. FF-Lab will have the seats. It’s 5 more years of FF I suspect.
However I think Labour just might be the party with the ideas and Rabbitt the man with the balls to drive real change. It’s clear that the civil servants (who are neither civil nor servants) can’t be forced to stop wasting taxpayers money and do a good job. However they tend to be the last die-hard trade unionists in the state then perhaps a stable 5 year government with Labour could bring them on board to the idea that public service actually means something. But there is no possibility of a 5 year stable government made up with the current vast spectrum of the Rainbow and at the first sign of conflict the unions will just sit tight for a couple of months and wait for the government to collapse.
Put your money on FF-Lab now. The objections of Rabbitt should help you get good odds and the mandate of the people (along with the lure of a Lexus & pension) will render those objections worthless in July.
Noel Whelan is a FF supporter.