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Frank Opinion (or: Porn for Politicos)
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour Party, Media, Polls, Progressive Democrats
Last night’s The Week in Politics - Frank Opinion was an interesting exercise, and will certainly have been watched eagerly by party hacks of all hues. Wagger wagers that the Greens and Shinners will be very pissed off that the analysis of their leaders & chances was cut out due to time restrictions.
The reactions of the “undecided” voters were interesting. Ahern got slammed. Kenny got slammed. Rabbitte was liked. McDowell got slammed even harder than Ahern & Kenny.
There have been moans elsewhere on Irishelection.com and on Politics.ie that the panel was unbalanced by having Ivan Yeates on board. However, people should recall that Noel Whelan and Terry Prone are both FFers, so the panel was actually biased towards FF if anything, rather than FG. Indeed, the PDs & Labour could argue that they should have had a panellist each - maybe Sam Smyth and Fergus Finlay.
The group were asked what their priorities when choosing who to vote for were. As always, the health service was number one. Wagger doesn’t believe this for a second. Fortunately, a few of the group were honest enough to say that the economy was their number one priority. It’s the economy, stupid. Never a truer phrase was coined. A built-in problem with polling and focus groups is the tendency of people to say either what they believe is the right thing to say (rather than what they actually believe) or what they believe the person they’re talking to wants to hear. Ask voters who they think will do the best job on the health service, and Labour invariably comes tops. Ask who will run the economy best, and FF invariably comes tops. Ask who they will vote for, and FF comes tops. Labour polls at 15% on a very good day. Quad erat demonstrandum.
Anyway, the reaction of the undecideds was interesting when looked at in detail on a leader-by-leader basis. Remember that all those in the focus group had voted in the last election - 35% for the Government, 65% for other parties.
Bertie Ahern
The group appeared to think that Ahern is the best man for the job, although they don’t trust him at all. Almost all agreed with Luntz that he’s a “man of the people” - his carefully cultivated image paying off. Frank Luntz took this to mean that they are on the lookout for a replacement for Ahern, but don’t like the look of the alternatives, and see him as a safe pair of hands. Wagger tends to agree. Unless a viable alternative is presented, the current economic climate means that the people will stick by their man.
Enda Kenny
The group didn’t take well to Kenny at all. The comments on initial reaction had him as lacking charisma, leadership, drive or any particular ideas on where he would like the country to go. The interesting thing here wasn’t, however, the group’s reaction to Kenny. Rather, their reaction to Kenny’s Ard Fheis speech was the shocker. Overwhelmingly, the group liked what he was saying, and liked how he was saying it. The problem is, they hadn’t heard any of it before. Kenny’s number one speech of the year, his best performance, Wagger would argue, hadn’t reached the undecided voters. Wagger reckons, as did the panel, that if Kenny can get his message out to those undecided voters, he is still in with a chance of becoming Taoiseach next year. Indeed, if he can get that message out, it may be inevitable.
Michael McDowell
Next up was Michael McDowell. Rated by political commentators and politicians across the spectrum as one of the most entertaining people in Irish politics (either for good or bad), the group hated him. Boring and arrogant were the watchwords. The PD’s 1% in Dublin in the last MRBI poll were reflected here. McDowell may get re-elected in Dublin South East, but his party colleagues are in serious trouble by these accounts.
Pat Rabbitte
Arguably, Rabbitte has most to be happy about from last night’s show. The group liked him at first, although they think he’s been heading in the wrong direction a little. Once they’d seen his speech, however, they universally loved him. Hitting all the right buttons, it might be said. “He said what we’re all thinking”, as one participant put it. Rabbitte has a habit of being bolshy, grumpy and mean tempered in public. If he can put a lid on that, and on his sighs, and start speaking like he did in that speech (from their Party Conference?), then he’s going to go up and up in the polls.
Prospective Governments
The two prospective Governments didn’t excite the focus group particularly. Most thought FF/PD was the most likely coalition after the election, although only two of the group actually wanted it (five wanted FG/Labour). The most interesting (some would say surprising, but Wagger has earlier blogged that it’s inevitable) result was that the group were hugely in favour of an FF/Labour coalition. Hugely. Labour would have a significant problem getting this past a Party Conference (required under their rules to approve a Programme for Government), and past the electorate after a campaign against FF in all its forms and actions, so it’s definitely not a possibility before the election. Don’t be surprised if Labour soften the ground a little, though. Labour are probably the party most likely to be in Government after this election, and would be the Kingmakers were they not already tied in with FG. FF would like a coalition with Labour. Labour are likely to demand (Bertie) Ahern’s head in return, as an absolute minimum.
A note of caution now. This focus group was about Dublin and the surrounding counties. There’s to be another one for rural voters. Wagger reckons Rabbitte won’t perform as well there, and that FF & FG will have more appeal. However, let’s not rule out more surprises.
There is still hope for both prospective Governments then. If FF can stop Bertie talking, and get him meeting people, and if the PDs can make McDowell less “boring”, they can pull back those additional votes they’re going to need to get a majority. If FG can get Kenny to talk to the people like he did in his speech, Rabbitte’s popularity will rub off on him and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that FG & Labour could sweep up a huge portion of that undecided vote. A straight majority for FG/Labour (without the Greens) would even be possible then. All to play for at this stage. Smart tactical moves by either side could turn this around very, very quickly.
Are there plans for more shows (outside of Dublin)? It would be very interesting if there were.
I think the Dublin factor will have benefited Rabbitt slightly but I suspect his overall support will maintain outside of the country. I’m not a Labour party supporter and I think the comment about Rabbitt’s political background last night was an interesting one and may be more of a factor among rural communities who will have seen Democratic Left and the Workers party as largely a Dublin phenomenon. However time will have dramatically lessened the impact of his political origins as the damaging effects of membership of a communist party in your misguided youth seems to generally have a short political half life. I think Rabbitt will hold his position as the most popular leader and rightly so.
Strangely while the Average approval percentage rating for Rabbitt may fall slightly I suspect the others will pick up slightly but don’t see a dramatic difference in the positions.
Bertie Aherne.
I suspect he will be the choice for Taoiseach and it will still be seen as the best of a bad lot. There is more of a culture of ducking and diving in rural politics. Look at the way Michael Lowry became the poll topper in North Tipperary and all that was needed was a few dodgy dealings with big business. But once again Bertie will get a bit of a kicking. If people in Dublin think public services are bad they should try living outside the M50. However his biggest political advantage remains the leader of the opposition.
Enda Kenny.
He’s the typical local politician. Friendly, approachable, helpful but no more able to run the country than Jackie Healy Ray. People don’t elect these politicians to run the country they elect them to get things done locally and generally they are a tremendous success at grafting and dodging for the odd medical card and planning permission and every now and then a new factory or road. But just as in Dublin rural people know that Enda Kenny couldn’t run the country. They’ll increase the approval rating for him because he is one of their own but when the question is asked at the end as to who should form the next government he won’t be at the races. The idea that one speech showed his true worth is not going to wash with the voters who will know that big speeches are written by a team of speech writers trained to hit the right buttons. It is the off the cuff interviews which reveal the true nature of the man and while a mix of these events were used last night for Bertie we only saw the big speech from Enda.
Michael McDowell.
This is a hard one to call. I think he might maintain the level of disapproval. His hard line on some issues will appeal to country voters. They’ll see him as straight talking and respect that. However they’ll see him as a D4 elitist and that’ll hurt him (rightly or wrongly).
Choice for Government
I think the country want the same thing as Dublin. Fianna Fail for the experience and Labour for the fresh ideas. Best of both worlds in a way.
Panelists:
I think Ivan Yates being on the panel is yet again another example of the political strategists of Fine Gael being unable to see the big picture. No doubt FG HQ thought they had scored a big coup sneaking him on the show but in reality the whole country will have thrown their eyes up to heaven. As the show went on and he became more and more irate and red faced in his defence of Enda Kenny it simply did tremendous damage to their cause. His argument at the end that the focus group was basically stupid because they didn’t know that Labour would never ever go into government with Fianna Fail missed the point completely. This was about what combination the people wanted to see regardless of current arrangements. The people want Fianna Fail and Labour and I suspect that’s what they will get. Prone and Whelan may have Fianna Fail leanings but the point is they are not senior members of any political party and certainly never served as a minister for Fianna Fail.
FG HQ needs to seriously look at its choice of political strategists. The message is clear. We want serious government and at the moment you’re not delivering it with your laptops and boot camps. And we certainly don’t want you to treat us as stupid and assume we’ll forget who Ivan Yates is. They should have stayed away from the show, let it run it’s course and then at 11pm last night they could have started spinning the negative elements for the government while learning what they are doing wrong. Instead this morning the stories are being distracted by the pissed off performance of Yates and the perception of a badly executed attempt to hijack the show. FG are on the back foot instead of attacking. They need to start to think big picture and look beyond the next 30 minute sound bite. Unless they do that in the next 2 months (6 months will be too late) then Richard Bruton will be leading the FG-PD opposition in July.
I have emailed RTE to complain about the unbalanced nature of the show. In particular I have the following concerns:
A: 65% of the focus-group voted against the govt parties in 2002. Hence it was also going to be quite hostile to the current Coalition. Might I add that the current govt was re-elected in spite of this 65% voting against them. Odd then that Frank attaches such almost religious faith in the importance of their decision this time.
B: The PDs were extremely unfairly hard done by because of the constituencies that were chosen and the tiny size of the sample. A sample of 32 spread across 17 constituencies incorporating Dublin, Kildare and Meath (the latter 2 where they have zero seats), while excluding the PD heartlands of Limerick and Galway, hardly constitutes a representative sample of urban Ireland. I would like to add to the starter of this thread that the claimed TNS-MRBI 1% Dublin PD vote is contradicted by the latest Red C poll placing them on 6% in the capital compared to 7% in 2002. I believe they will hold at least 3 of their seats in Dublin and maybe the 4th. Traditional PD supporters are used to hearing the party’s demise predicted every morning, noon and night for the last 21 yrs so I don’t think they will desert the party over such a biased an unrepresentative tiny group.
C: Another major problem I have with this is the potential for groupthink among the audience i.e. for them to agree with each other to gain peer-approval. They are being asked to acclaim how they will vote. While it is true that Red C chose the sample, I feel they should have been asked to look beyond simply these 3 counties. Niche parties with the PDs have almost no organisation in most of the country but are strong in a few constituencies. You are not going to pick up their Galway and Limerick bases in a focus-group of 32 people divided between Dublin, Kildare and Meath. With these counties comprising 17 constituencies we are talking about around 1.5 people per constituency in the audience on average. So there should be no doubt that this should not be seen as representative of the electorate as a whole - and due to its tiny size - representative of even the undecideds either.
A travesty of unspeakable proportions!
As Wagger has said above, the thing was specifically about Dublin/Meath/Kildare, and there’s going to be another one about the rest of the country.
Onto what he (she?) actually wrote, I don’t agree with this idea that Ahern is seen as “not a nice guy but the only option” - I think you’re taking what the group said wrong. I think they liked Ahern to some extent, but are open to alternatives, if you know what I mean. I do agree that it’s all to play for.
Just to pick up on Brian Boru complaints to RTE
a) The focus group was designed to consist of the average floating voter and since 65% of eligible voters did not vote for the government parties in the last election, it was an accurate reflection of reality which is why it was so strongly mentioned.
b) This is the first of three or so programmes and was designed to focus on the Dublin / Leinster area. The PD heartlands don’t include Limerick as very able illustrated in this politics.ie thread. Kildare has previously been mentioned as a key target for the PDs which from this programme would indicate trouble for them.
c) Limerick again is not a current PD stronghold based on the last local election results. Limerick, Cork and Galway are sure to feature in some of the other programmes in this series so its rather silly to complain about a non national focus when the programme specifically and repeatedly stated that their focus for this programme was the greater Dublin area.
If you want to debate or comment on issues with the Focus Group methodology, please do but please don’t paste garbage and whinning which contains blantant misinformation.
Brian Boru ,or FutureTaoiseach as you call yourself on politics.ie, you’re pedalling more nonsense here too I see.
This was a focus group, not a representative poll. Make of that what you will, there are valid criticisms to be made of politics by focus groups. Yet no one is making them here.
However, they were all purely meant to be undecided voters and it is the currently undecided who will tip the election one way or the other.
I was more than a little surprised that the show didn’t show FF/SF or FF/PD/Indos or FF/Grn as options or FG/Lab/Grn. That is where the real lack of balance shone through.
cf, Whelan does not just have ‘FF leanings’ as you indicate. He has been a candidate on more than one occasion and is a FF insider. Prone also has very strong ties to FF. What specific points did Yates make that you had a problem with? I think his points were valid and neither Whelan nor Prone choose to refute them. For him to refer to the political reality that FF/Labour is not on offer is perfectly reasonable.
Assessing only four individual politicians and three possible coalition options is obviously quite limited, and I’m guessing this actually reflects the limitations of Luntz’s method. He’s used to assessing the electability of prominent figurehead politicians running in individual, presidential-style campaigns. I didn’t see much evidence that he had taken on board much of the vagaries and nuances of the Irish electoral system.
The business of assessing the group’s reactions to conference speeches was worse than useless - who will ever see any of the speeches their politicians give to their party conferences?
And I note that FutureTaoiseach has upgraded his ambition to FutureHighKing.
Interesting. really does show negative politics is crap
Unless there is a dramatic collapse in FF and Labour votes or a dramatic swing towards FG or the PDs then the mandate of the people will be for FF-Labour. If Labour refuse to talk and instead opt for a temporary coalition of FG-Lab-Grn-Soc-Ind it will last around 3 months before we’re back at the polls again. The numbers simply don’t add up for anything other than an unstable rainbow of at least 5 colours and “Get FF out” isn’t a lasting programme for government with so many conflicting personalities and agendas sitting at the cabinet table.
Worst case scenario is no government can be formed because too many maverick Independents and Sinn Fein-IRA TDs get elected and we are back voting again. Either way instability and uncertainty will be the order of the day. The people want a stable government who can manage the country. Any party who refuses to take up their electoral mandate and causes instability will never again see the inside of government buildings in their lifetimes. That’s why it may take a few weeks of negotiations but for the good of the country Rabbitt (or his successor) will fall in with FF.
However it may not be all bad. If the negotiations and brinkmanship are tough enough then Labour can get FF to agree to a programme for government that will instigate real change. And a Labour-FF government will probably have the support base in the civil service trade unions to make that change happen.
This is the actual political reality and die hard FG members like Yeats can’t see it because it means yet another defeat for FG. A defeat that was inevitable the day they got rid of Noonan and elected Enda Kenny to the job. FG haven’t won an election in almost 25 years and Kenny never had the gravitas to stop it being 30, not even for a few seconds in a speech someone wrote for him to deliver in front of his loyal party members.
cf, what ya like with your ‘The numbers simply don’t add up for anything other than an unstable rainbow of at least 5 colours’. We haven’t even had an election yet, what numbers would these be?
I concede that the election hasn’t happened yet but a generation of voters have yet to choose FG and a whole generation of Fine Gael members don’t know how to win an election. I don’t see anything in the laptop and bootcamp press releases that tell me FG have come up with a strategy to win an election.
Their whole party is lightweight and I can’t see them winning enough seats to get a majority with Labour. In the last election they were cut to 31 seats. Even if we assume that was abnormally low and if they maintain the current 27-28% in polls which was around the 1997 figure that yielded 54 seats. I think everyone would accept that Enda Kenny would snap the hand off you if he was offered that right now. Labour if they maintain their 11-12% in the polls gives 20-21 seats. At the upper figure thats 75. They are still 9 short of a majority. The Greens got 6 seats with 4% of the vote. They are still at around 4%. Lets give them the benefit of the doubt and say they win 7. Now the rainbow is still 2 short. Throw in the socialists and an independent (or two single issue independents) and that’s your 5 colours.
cf on your basis FF haven’t won an election since ‘77 either.
How many colours
If we take your numbers of FG 54, Lab 21, Green 7, for a total of 82 then where would that leave FF, the PDs, SF and the rest of the independents? They would be sharing the remaining 84 seats amongst them. It is hardly stretching it to suggest that the indos, SF, SP and the PDs would be sharing about 20 of those 84 seats (with the PDs and SP sharing 5 between them) which would leave FF at 64 seats! It is a lot harder to see FF/PDs bridging that gap to 84 than it is for FG/Lab to make the final push to get a Taoiseach elected.
And they don’t even need to get 84. 83 with an independent as Ceann Comhairle is a majority.
Your evidence really points to a suggestion that a few more people should vote and transfer to FG, Lab and Grn to ensure stablity rather the much larger number needed to get FF and the PDs back in.
But I’m not arguing for FF-PD-Independent coalition. I’m saying that FF-Lab is by far the most likely to produce a stable 5 year government as neither FG nor the PDs are likely to produce enough seats. And the focus group on sunday night showed that not only is FF-Lab is the popular choice and likely to be the democraic mandate of the people. Stability and the democratic choice point to FF-Lab.
cf, it would have produced a stable from the number goverment at any time in the 50. It only happened once and Labour lost a 1/3 of their seats after it.
“But I’m not arguing for FF-PD-Independent coalition. I’m saying that FF-Lab is by far the most likely to produce a stable 5 year government as neither FG nor the PDs are likely to produce enough seats. And the focus group on sunday night showed that not only is FF-Lab is the popular choice and likely to be the democraic mandate of the people. Stability and the democratic choice point to FF-Lab.”
I don’t agree with you that a sample of just 32 undecided voters - and only from 3 Leinster counties - tells us anything meaningful. McDowell has a 38% approval rating in the most recent Red C nationwide poll for the end of Novemeber also giving the PDs 6% in Dublin. I don’t like the hothouse atmosphere of this sort of show, which encourages groupthink among those attending and a demogogic focus on personality over policy. I still believe FF-PD-Ind is what will happen.
So FT/BB you’ve accepted that FF and the PDs will lose enough seats minimum that they will definitely require independents.
DS if FF get 39-40% then yes they will lose seats. In 1997 they got 39% and scored 77 TDs to 68 in 1992. I expect somewhere in low to mid-70s for FF and around 6 PDs so a few Indos will be needed. This will be closer than in 2002. I don’t believe though that FF can realistically lose power the only question is who their Coalition partner will be and whether Independent-support will be needed. If Labour and the Greens continue their “never never” routine than it will be FF-PD propped up by Indos as in 1997-2002.
A few indos?
OK, you’ve said 6 PDs, and if FF get low 70s say 72 then that is 78 and they need 5 independents they can rely on.
Those who might
Breen, McHugh, Harkin, Healy Rae, Connolly, Fox
Fox isn’t running and whoever goes in her place is likely to not poll as well.
Harkin isn’t running by all accounts as her prefers being an MEP
Healy Rae is vulnerable only got in last time by 150 votes
Connolly is very vulnerable as he has achieved nothing on Monaghan hospital and it is now 4 seater with O’Hanlon returned automatically making it even harder for him.
Breen is probably the safest of this lot
McHugh certainly has strong personal vote but can he hold on?
Those who won’t
Lowry, Healy, Murphy, McGrath, Joe Higgins
Lowry, despite FG best efforts he is strong favoured to hold on.
Healy should hold on too despite Labours efforts
With FF at 6s and 7s she could well hold on
McGrath, he could well lose out to a Green
Joe is safest of this lot.
In the middle
Cowley has painted himself into a corner on Rossport and couldn’t possibly at this point support the government. Otherwise, he might have.
Gergory - might not this time.
So, the pro-FFers are more likely to lose their seats than the antis. I can see only 2 out of the 6 pros holding on.