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Why are Fianna Fail going on the Labour offensive?
Read more about: Coalition, Economy, Fianna Fail, Government, Labour Party, Taxation
There’s been plenty of media coverage over recent months of the feud between McDowell (in the PD corner) and Rabbitte (in the Labour corner), as each side trades blows on various issues. The reason for this is quite simple: it’s not because the two parties are so very different ideologically—they’re not as different as they’d like to pretend—and it’s not just because McDowell and Rabbitte are two of the more abrasive personalities in the Dáil, it’s because there’s no room for both in the next coalition and they both know it.
McDowell has seen all the polls and he’s come to the same realisation we all have; month after month, irregardless of who is up and who is down one reality exists: a FF/Lab Government is the clearest and most straightforward possibility. Even in the latest Red C poll, which saw Labour at their lowest point since the polls began, a FF/Lab union comes to 49% (compared to FF/PD at 42% and FG/Lab at 33%; the Greens would bring FF/PD to 50%—although this is an unlikely marriage—and would bring FG/Lab to 41%).
On the flip-side, Rabbitte sees the PDs on their knees and is only too happy to try to help Enda finish them off; after all, if FG can take PD voters it will make the “alternative” coalition’s route to power much easier and would let Rabbitte dodge a bullet when it comes to the FF issue.
The question is, though, why did delegate after delegate use the Fianna Fail Ard Fheis last weekend to commit a very public hatchet job on Labour and Rabbitte? Fianna Fail have always been a party that refuses to hedge its bets when it comes to potential coalitions—giving the opposition the opportunity to shout ‘Sinn Fein Ministers!’ every now and again—so why would they try to put the Fear of God into people considering Labour, given that they stand the best chance of being their bride next year?
Of course, a lot of the attacks were focused on Rabbitte himself, which makes some sense. Rabbitte has been a very public ‘FF-hater’ and given that he has stuck his neck out by refusing a FF/Lab coalition already, his future will be in serious doubt if the numbers only add up to such a situation. For FF, Rabbitte is a fair target and there’s every chance he won’t reckon on the front bench if the two parties unite anyway, so no face will need to be lost.
But there were plenty of general Labour attacks, the kind that would usually be the preserve of the PDs; talk of tax-hikes, for example. Perhaps FF are doing to Labour what FG are trying to do the PDs; with the party riding high on their recent poll success, they see Labour’s weak position as a chance to capitalise on the centre-left vote (by using centre-right policies?).
In truth, I ask the question in the title-bar because I’m looking for an answer… Are Fianna Fail just playing a short-term game and hoping the public will forget their attacks after the election or have they decided to call Labour’s bluff and reject a coalition on any grounds too? Perhaps most importantly, will Fianna Fail try to accentuate it’s left-of-centre stance as the election approaches in order to undercut Labour as well as Sinn Fein and the Greens?
Good question and two answers occur to me;
1) their voters are there for the taking if FF make enough noise, frightened off by the prospect of FG or some other aspect of policy. Recent polls suggest this might be the case.
2) A labour party on 8-12% is a quieter ally in government than one on the crest of a wave at 20% there is room for ff to depress labour until they are just big enough to go into power
two untestable theories but feel free to hatchet them
1) their voters are there for the taking if FF make enough noise, frightened off by the prospect of FG or some other aspect of policy. Recent polls suggest this might be the case.
Good point; I mean I personally would avoid voting for FF because it’s pretty much a vote for the PD’s too, so those thinking Labour might be turned off by a centre-right party like FG coming in on the bargain.
2) A labour party on 8-12% is a quieter ally in government than one on the crest of a wave at 20% there is room for ff to depress labour until they are just big enough to go into power
Well I’d take a slightly different view on that. For whatever reason the PD’s have had far more sway than their seat count would have suggested in both of the last two Governments, and Labour are likely (once they get their heads together) to poll higher than the PD’s did last time around… but there is an important balancing act for FF when it comes to Labour… too strong and they’ll carry FG into power, too weak and they’d leave FF with no-one to turn to.
I’d say FF think that if there are “alternative coalition” votes to be won, they’re going to come from Labour rather than FG. So, why pick a fight with FG that’s not going to take any votes to you?
Because Labour are the weakest link of the coalition. The last election it was Noonan. FF concentrated on Ahern vs. Noonan, and Harney vs. Quinn. On both counts the government won. Noonan and Quinn were both seen as unreliable. Kenny is a nice guy, and making a sneer of him doesn’t work. Some the emphasis is changing. It will between Cowen (with his big giveaway budget) and Joan Burton (who knows nothing about Finance). It will be about getting public sector workers out to vote for Ahern in charge again, because he has looked after them.
The weak point in Fianna Fail is the failure to control costs, corruption and infrastructure overruns. On each of these points FG is stronger than FF. Therefore the electorate need to reminded that FG won’t get in on their own - they will need the Labour party. And everybody remembers what happend the last time Labour were in power - widespread abuse of government facilities, at a time when the taxpayers were strecthed. So for this reason FF are focussing on the weakest link - the Labour front bench. Many of whom were involved in scandals, cost over runs and “jobs for friends” events.
And of course the public sector pay deals is another factor. The public sector will go out and vote fro FF, because Bertie looked after them.