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National Polls v. Constituency Polls
Read more about: Clare, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Galway West, Green Party, Kerry North, Labour Party, Mayo, Polls, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin, Wexford
There’s been an interesting trend in the recent TG4 polls conducted by TNS/MRBI compared to national figures being delivered by RedC and TNS/MRBI in the Sunday Business Post and The Irish Times respectively. Added to this can be the reporting in The Kerryman of two polls seen there.
There appears to be an increasing trend in the constituency polls that counteracts the national trend. While voters are flocking to Bertie Ahern nationally, they seem to be abandoning his footsoldiers locally. Is this a sign that An Taoiseach’s charm, while still enough for him personally, may no longer be enough to carry his 80 or so colleagues into the Dáil with him?
Let’s take each constituency that TG4 has polled separately:
Mayo
The TG4/TNS/MRBI poll in Mayo shows the two contesting Fianna Fáil incumbents—Carty & Cooper-Flynn, who is FF gene-pool, even if she’s technically not under the whip—dropping significantly from their 2002 standings. It shows the two Fine Gael incumbents, Enda Kenny and Michael Ring, each increasing their vote take by around 10%; that’s 20% together. FF’s take—including Cooper-Flynn—last time around was 40%. This poll shows them at 31%. FG’s take last time was 38%. This poll shows them at 54%. Now, a word of caution: this poll was taken before Bertiegate, when the “Rainbow Alternative” was riding reasonably high, but the other constituencies bear out the results.
Clare
The Clare poll shows Fine Gael on 35%, with Fianna Fáil on 42%. This compares to 25% and 45% respectively in 2002. Here we have a slight—3%—increase in FF support, but a significant—10%—increase in FG support. As with Mayo, the PDs and Labour are non-entities in these areas, with (true) independents holding one seat in each constituency.
Galway West
Galway West is the first constituency we examine where it’s not just a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael fightoff, as Labour enter the picture in the shape of the eternally angry darling of the left Michael D Higgins, and the PDs present the (largely anonymous in Leinster House) Noel Grealish. In 2002, the FF/PD coalition took a combined 54%, while the putative Rainbow took just 27%. In the TG4 poll, however, the Government candidates are on 57%, with the Rainbow pulling in a combined 34% (Catherine Connolly, a Labour member who is mooting a solo-run is on 6%, giving them a potential 40%; if elected, she’d surely vote with the Labour Party, and will certainly transfer strongly to Higgins). Here we see FF/PD up 3%, while FG/LAB are up a definite 7%, and potentially 13%.
Wexford
In Wexford in 2002, the PDs didn’t run a candidate, and FF took a total of 40% of the first preferences. FG and Labour took a combined 39%, 48% if you include Liam Twomey. In the TG4 poll, FF are now sitting on a combined 41%—although this is heavily concentrated on John Browne, with the two other FF candidates both polling under 10%—with the PDs’ new candidate Colm O’Gorman not registering even a blip on the poll, while the FG/Labour ticket, reinforced by Liam Twomey, independent in 2002, is now on 50%. The changes are slight, but the Rainbow has gained more than the Government side.
Kerry North
Finally, Kerry North, where The Kerryman has reported a very unusual result, but claims corroboration from two different poll sources. While numbers are not given, the Kerryman reports that the only candidate confirmed as safe by both polls is Labour’s Terry O’Brien. One poll shows Fine Gael’s Jimmy Deenihan scrambling against Martin Ferris of Sinn Féin, while the other shows Ferris and Tom McEllstrim (FF) fighting it out for the last seat. Now, both of these polls are understood to have been taken by political parties, and should naturally therefore be considered extremely suspect, but the fact that a Rainbow gain is possible, and even likely—one would have to fancy either FF or FG over Sinn Féin here when it comes down to transfers—should have the Fianna Fáil strategists worried.
While the evidence here for a diverging trend between national and constituency opinion polls is not conclusive, there’s certainly something there. It’s something worth examining more closely over coming months as more constituency polls become available. If Mr Ahern’s appeal at national level isn’t transferring so easily down to his candidates on the ground in individual constituencies, Fianna Fáil could face the bizarre prospect of having the favoured candidate for the position of Taoiseach, but not having the numbers in Leinster House to elect him, and seeing Enda Kenny’s lack of appeal nationally made up by the appeal of his individual candidates, and those of the Labour Party, on the ground.
Finally, a short comment on the Mail on Sunday polls, lest Wagger be accused of ignoring some of the available data. Those have appeared to be fairly inaccurate; they were just too far out on the Galway West poll compared to the TNS one taken exactly the same day to have credibility, and the Dublin South East poll published the same day had Sinn Féin’s Daithí Doolan on 12%, which is just not realistic in D4/6 and would indicate either a huge margin of error or a significant bias towards the Inner City and Ranelagh part of that constituency at the expense of areas more distant from the Liffey, which would match up with the numbers for other candidates. Also, the data doesn’t appear to be available online, except where reported second or third hand, so it’s even less appealing to re-report.
I think this highlights a problem in the Irish political system. It seems the people trust the tarnished experience of Bertie Ahern to Run the country more than likeable innocence of Enda Kenny. However at a local level things might be different. We want one group to run the country but another to get things done at a local level. Therefore the TDs we elect to run the country have to spend their time fiddling planning permissions, scamming medical cards and bumping people up the housing list. If they don’t do this for the ordinary voter they don’t get elected next time but if they do anything like this for a wealthy businessman and they are scum of the earth. Where’s the cut off line. If you earn less than 100,000 a year is it ok to ask your TD to pull a few strokes on your behalf but if you earn over 100,000 then its corruption.
Thus the grafter and fiddler gets elected to do the local voters bidding but then finds themselves totally unable to cope when it comes to running the country. Jackie Healy Rae is the poster boy of this group. Poll topping in Kerry but totally useless to the country. Meanwhile people like Sen Martin Manser (not sure of the spelling) in Tipperary can’t get elected because he is the sort of person we need running the country but is totally useless to the man down the road whose son got turned down for the medical card.
I think we need to look at the way we elect our public representatives. Perhaps the upper house (Dail) should be slimmed down to fewer seats and then elected on a list system where you vote for the party you trust to run the country. Then the Senate can be reformed so each constituency also votes for a senator. This way the Senate can move to a truly democratic body representing the people rather than a talking shop representing the elite interests of Trinity, NUI and councils.
Of course I’m also sensible enough to know that this will never happen. The TDs will never vote themselves out of a job and the elite Trinity and NUI senators have fought to prevent the seventh amendment being implemented to give UL, DCU DIT etc votes in the senate so they will hardly allow the ordinary Joe Public a vote.
It all goes back to the basic problem of the right skills to get the job not necessarily being the right skills to do the job.
And the question is which job. Running the country or sorting out potholes.
I strongly disagree. We only have a few constituency polls so far - many of them not in the FF heartlands. We just don’t have a big enough picture yet. I agree with you on one thing though - polls carried out by political-parties and then leaked need to be viewed with a pinch of salt. “They would say that wouldn’t they?” springs to mind. My feeling is that a candidate’s personal vote though has the potential to win extra seats for a party and perhaps confound national-polls somewhat. I wish we could get lots of constituency polls - by independent polling-companies i.e. not political-parties - released at once so we can make firmer predictions.
We want one group to run the country but another to get things done at a local level.
That would be the councillors - the local politicians. The TD’s are used to working on local issues because for years they were, in many cases, both councillor and national legislator. Hopefully over time, things will change with the councillor taking over from the TD - in the eys of the public - the political change occurred in some years ago.
“Meanwhile people like Sen Martin Manser (not sure of the spelling) in Tipperary can’t get elected because he is the sort of person we need running the country but is totally useless to the man down the road whose son got turned down for the medical card”
Like the majority of politicians Senator Mansergh(FF) put his party loyalty before that to his country, because on the collapse of the Albert Reynolds FF/Labour government he was asked to continue the no doubt valuable work he had been doing on Northern Ireland for Albert Reynolds for the Rainbow Collation, he refused to do so. Subsequently we had the breakdown of the IRA ceasefire which suited Fianna Fail very well politically and which ceasefire was restored six weeks after the return to Government of Fianna Fail. Coincidence! I think not!
Brian I am trying to complie all the local polls I can find here. http://www.irishelection.com/party-news/opinion-polls
ANy help pointing me in the way of other polls would be greatly appricated.
bertie is only think about him self but not the team he think he will run for the goverment he got other thing coming if he dose he thinks he want to stay in power he has other thing coming i thinke berite has no chane to resgin all together bertie think he ie doing hi his best so that why we fine gael think he have to go do dose not care for anyone one el but only him self the next polls i see fine gael all the way we will not let bertie palses e amill me gary i kown am right a bout this
Poll out tonight Red C:
FF: 39% (-)
FG: 23% (-)
Labour: 12% (+2)
SF: 8% (-2)
Green: 7% (-1)
PD: 4% (+1)
Others: 7%