Further candidate shakeout

News this evening that the long Mitchell presence in the Dail will end next year with Gay’s decision to pursue his MEP career rather than run again as a TD. FG sound optimistic that they can hold the seat with Catherine Byrne, but that still leaves Labour with a battle to get their second seat, now without the little extra help of whatever the transfers from Mitchell’s personal vote were worth. RTE is also reporting that Johnny Fox’s daughter Mildred is not running again; a de facto loss for FF since she was a reliable supporter. And speaking of FF-aligned independents, it didn’t take long for trouble in paradise to emerge in Donegal, as Niall Blaney now says that the Independent FF return to the fold was conditional on Jim McDaid’s departure from politics, which was reversed (Irish Times, subs. req’d). Indeed, it was clear even at the time of the merger that McDaid would likely reconsider, which makes Blaney’s expression of surprise now more puzzling.

Tuesday’s Irish Times (subs. req’d) is a font of further information. The paper reports that the Donegal NE FF organisation is close to open conflict with HQ over the candidate list. They want the now three incumbents to be on the ballot, including Jim McDaid, whereas the arriviste Niall Blaney is assuming that McDaid is out. Everyone is acting on the presumption that there’s only room to re-elect two FF TDs.

FG is apparently shopping around for additional candidates in Dublin South-Central over and above Catherine Byrne, Crumlin-based Cllr. Anne Marie Martin, and Ballyfermot-based Peter O’Neill; a perceived need for a big name to fill Gay Mitchell’s shoes. Whereas our post above speculated that someone without Mitchell’s personal draw might suck transfers away from Labour, they are said to put more weight on the countervailing tendency on there being more room for one of their candidates, such as former TD Eric Byrne.

Still no word on whether Mildred Fox’s organisation will run an alternative candidate, but without the Fox name, it’s hard to see what appeal that candidate would have.

And FF have now confirmed that they are running three candidates in Donegal NE; there is a carefully worded claim that Blaney supports the three-candidate strategy, which does not constitute a claim that he supports McDaid being the third candidate.