EU Referendum for May/June?

The Irish Times breaking news suggests that we are probably looking at an EU referendum in May or June of next year. The happy bunnies in Luxembourg reckon that they can get an agreement on the new EU reform Treaty in meetings and a summit this week. The report quotes also from an interesting speech made by Deirdre De Burca to the European Greens over the weekend which appears to draw out the battle lines in an internal Green Party debate on whether to support the treaty.

When one sees precisely what it is that concerns the Greens about Europe, militarization and neo-liberal market reforms coupled with a democratic deficit, it seems that a debate that supports the treaty will be seen as a huge about-turn on policy. Agreed there is the move away from ‘critical engagement’ towards a reformist agenda which seeks to turn from the inside but there is a clear signal of willingness to accept the current format as a sarting point for reform.

I am not a Green Party member though I suspect that it may be much harder to get a 66% majority on the EU treaty than it was to get a decsion to enter government. Fianna Fail can hold out carrots to the party that the EU will not be offering. This is a political decision that seems to carry no end of drawbacks, not least in terms of giving other parties another stick with which to beat the Greens, with little that stands out as a carrot bar not splitting the government parties on treaty ratification.

That the Green Party would oppose the treaty is something that is probably unthinkable for Green ministers and leading lights at the moment. They will surely argue in cabinet that to secure a vote of 66% in favour some concessions at Irish government level (’to prevent any backlash on the coalition decision’) must be made. This can be exhibited to assorted party members as evidence that the shifts in party direction are breeding reward but it is unlikely that members will be in a mood to be bought.

Aside from the Green Party twisting itself into a pro-European party the other interesting spectacle that the forthcoming treaty will bring on is that rarest of alliances between old school Tories at the Telegraph and the people from Sinn Fein. While on doubts UKIP will be channeling a battle fund into the coffers of Sinn Fein, they stand as potentially the only party that will oppose the treaty. Such a level of consensus among the other parties across left and right, is something that worries me. It suggests the idea of Europe is a sine qua non. It is not up for debate in any sense at all and the choice given to voters is a false one. I accept that with the ‘no’ option on the ballot paper that is not entirely true but you get my drift surely.