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Constituency Commission 2007 Report - Kerry North to Join Limerick West in 3 Seater Dublin Loses Euro Seat
Read more about: Census, Coalition, Cork, Democracy, Dublin West, Dun Laoghaire, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Government, Green Party, Irish Election, Irish Politics, Kerry North, Kerry South, Labour Party, Limerick East, Limerick West, Louth, Meath, Meath East, Parties, Progressive Democrats, Sinn Féin, Sligo-North Leitrim, Socialist Party
The report of the 2007 Consituency Commission is out, some would say a little bit too late but how and ever. Kerry is to remain split, with Kerry South a 3 seater while Kerry North joins to West Limerick in also remaining a 3 seater. Dublin Euro is a 3 seater, Dun Laoghaire is a 4 seater while Dublin West goes to 4 also. There are 19 unchange. Detail below the fold.
The PDF is out here and there are a number of expected changes as well as some not so expected one. Dun Laoghaire moves to a four seater and one would think that nails the O Malley move back to Limerick should she become PD leader. However the fact that it is no longer a five seat constituency makes the decision a very tough one for O’Malley. It could well be hobsons choice which one to take.
It had been consensus that they would become a 5 seater instead of taking in some of Limerick but there you are. The Limerick constituencies also change as a result of losing a chunk to Kerry. There is a greater Limerick constituency which will be a 3 seater and Limerick City which will be a four seater. The geography of the move sees Newcastle-West remain in Limerick while Abbeyfeale and Glin move out to Kerry North-West Limerick. This means that Kerry South is an effective two seater should these stay in place until the next election with John O Donoghue automatically reelected thanks to being Ceann Comhairle. A two seater in Kerry South will make it into a first past the post style election and the permutations will be interesting. O Donoghue had a 4,000 odd lead over 2nd place this time round and he had 9,000 in total. If those votes remain in FF there will be a dogfight to hit 6-8k first preference votes or possibly even more to get one of two seats. Considering Fleming did better on first preferences than either of the two that won out ahead of him, there is every chance of an FF 1-2.
Ninteen of the current constituencies remain unchanged. These are; Carlow-Kilkenny, Waterford, Longford Westmeath, Clare, Wexford, Galway West, Dublin Central, Wicklow, Cork South Central, Cork South West, Galway East, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin South East, Tipp South, Mayo, Dublin South West, Dublin North West, Dublin South Central, Cavan-Monaghan.
The Dublin Euro Constituency is set to drop to a 3 seat constituency which will make it one of the most appealing election contests in the 2009 Euros. Longford and Westmeath transfer out of the East Constituency and into the North-West and all four Euro areas are now 3 seaters.
Joe Higgins will probably be grinding his teeth to read that Dublin West gets an extra seat, of all the constituencies at election time it was surely this one which stood as testament to the need to redraw boundaries for a fair election. I was talking to some people who are very knowledgable on the redrawing process and they said that once the provisional results were out in March, it took them 2-3 days to redraw boundaries to a fair and constitutional range. They even mentioned it to some in the Dept of Environment who were shocked (!) that it could be done so quickly. Of course it was ignored but its a little insight nonetheless.
Louth is to gain a seat to become a five seater while the two Meaths will remain 3 seaters. Louth will gain the Meath East areas of Julianstown and part of Saint Mary’s (17,333 or so people) which could see a number of power bases divided (I think Thomas Byrne has a good vote from the coast where he was competing with Dominic Hannigan for those votes). There may well be a move made into the new five seater by one of those or perhaps another local politicians who fancies his chances.
Leitrim may be happy to see a concentration in the Sligo-North Leitrim constituency as 3,500 or so move into that constituency.
For Keith in Comments:
- Eleven 5-seat constituencies are proposed (12 at present): Carlow-Kilkenny, Cavan-Monaghan, Cork South-Central, Dublin South, Dublin South-Central, Galway West, Laois-Offaly, Louth, Mayo, Wexford and Wicklow.
- Fifteen 4-seaters are proposed (13 at present): Clare, Cork East, Cork North-Central, Dublin Central, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin North, Dublin South-East, Dublin South-West, Dublin West, Du´n Laoghaire, Galway East, Kildare North, Limerick City, Longford-Westmeath and Waterford.
- Seventeen 3-seaters are proposed (18 at present): Cork North-West, Cork South-West, Donegal North-East, Donegal South-West, Dublin North-Central, Dublin North-East, Dublin North-West, Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Kildare South, Limerick, Meath East, Meath West, Roscommon-South Leitrim, Sligo-North Leitrim, Tipperary North and Tipperary South.
The proportionality of three seaters is known to distort our overall levels of proportionality and it has only moderately been addressed by adjusting Dublin West. Still two other three-seaters in Dublin could certainly have been adjusted and proportionality improved. Gilmore makes this point in the first press release we have on the Commission and bemoans the reduction in the number of five seaters. That is likely to be echoed by smaller parties as five seaters are the best chance they have of increasing their presence in the system. Three seaters are fine and dandy for FF and FG indeed the continued high number could help Kenny (or whomever) continue to build on Fine Gael’s totals in May.
If I’m not mistaken Dublin North hasn’t gained a seat or has its boundaries changed at all - that seemed a shoe-in to be made a 5-seater.
actually, my mistake - some of Dublin North has been cut up and put into Dublin West and Dublin North East
Third comment in a row - new constituency of Limerick City added - 4 seater.
That means Limerick’s representation goes up to 10 if you include Kerry North/West Limerick
I don’t have time at the moment, but an analysis of the number of 3, 4 & 5 seaters before and after this would be interesting.
Ah nice spots Adam, was writing and posting at the same time. The 4 seater in Limerick is very interesting, what does O Malley do now? If she is to be leader she will need a Dail seat in 2012. The wisdom that Limerick would still be 5 seats while DL 4 suggested she move (and she is considering it). Now that they are both 4 it becomes a far tougher decision.
The Lim West move is very interesting too. It will mean FF will have to change their partner for Mac to a North Kerry candidate (happily they have one sitting on the board of Shannon Development) although Deenihan won’t mind the chance to work Abbeyfeale one suspects. Will Collins and Cregan both remain in the new 4 seater or one move?
Its on its way Keith, just editing as I read.
I’d imagine Fiona O’Malley will do well to scrutinise her cousin’s performance in what was Limerick East to see exactly where his votes came from - from there she can decide whether Limerick East or Limerick City has the best potential for her.
Either way I think it’s safe to say that Dun Laoighaire is not where her seat lies.
The most interesting thing of all about this, of course, is that if the Government sees out its full term to 2012 there’s every likelihood that these constituencies will be revised again after the 2011 census. A speculator on Sunday’s Week In Politics suggested that the Taoiseach (whoever that is at the time) may well call an election early simply to avoid the scary proposition of a constituency change in the middle of canvassing.
I suppose it depends on the Limerick Shake up. Some heads might move from city out to Limerick while a lot of those in Lim West might stay put in Limerick.
Considering the clear lack of space out in DL though she must be thinking its better to head off to Limerick and give a decent shot at it.
Whatever about an early general election, the Dublin Euro will stand for 2009. That is going to be very interesting altogether.
The vast bulk of the PD vote is Limerick has now left the East (or should I say City) to go to the West (or should I say Limerick) which basicially means the PD vote has been sliced in half and no hope of Fiona O’M taking a seat here. O’Malley polled poorly in the City but Ok in ths ‘Burbs and not bad in county. The County vote is now gone and an y hope the PDs had of a seat in Limerick
ps…… O’Dea will be freaking as his home base in county has been sliced off, you know how every vote means to him……
Clearly Joe that puts her in the proverbial rock and hard place. There is no guaranteed seat in 2012 bar Galway if Harney resigns.
that could leave the leader with a tough slog to get a seat in any constituency. She surely has better chance at inroads in the O Malley heartland of Limerick (county or city is a tough choice).
LOL at willy though. And i doubt im the only one.