The opposition should be looking to maim but not kill Ahern’s career

Tomorrow’s a big day for political junkies; the return of an Dáil after the summer recess and the first chance for the opposition to weigh in - and the Government to defend itself - on Ahern’s tribunal performance, Aer Lingus’ exit from Shannon and all the other ills that afflicted the country over the not-so-sunny months.

But while there’s an obvious itch within Fine Gael and Labour to come out swinging on the issues of the moment, they would be wise to be more careful with their choice of weapon, on the off chance that they actually land a fatal blow.

It’s an odd notion, that a party like Fine Gael might be advised to keep Ahern where he is for the time being, but its one that makes sense in a long-term context.

Ahern has been weakened by the tribunal, there’s no doubt about that. To what extent is debatable but the SBP/Red C poll, which was conducted before the most damaging of Ahern’s days in the dock, shows that the public are losing faith and patience.

However another fact is equally in no doubt; that any ‘no-confidence’ motion, or motion of any kind on the matter put to the house tomorrow will be instantly shot down by Fianna Fáil and their allies. Put simply, even if every FF TD wanted Ahern gone they’d still vote against a no-confidence motion tomorrow as they’d prefer to deal with the issue internally rather than be complicit in a victory for Kenny and Co.

A third and final fact is that this Tribunal obsession will be gone from the public’s mind by the time they next vote in 2009 and again in 2012; the only thing that will change that is the timing of the publication of the final findings.

Rumours are already abound that Cowen’s allies will be looking to move Ahern on within the next six to nine months and such rumours will only grow in strength if Ahern leaves Leinster House this week with more political wounds than he can handle.

Assuming there’s any basis in these rumours and imagining that Ahern ends the week looking like a dead man walking it will be clear that a Fianna Fáil leadership election is just months away - certainly before the local/EU elections. While that may be a victory of sorts for the opposition, in that they could relish in Ahern’s downfall, it would be a very short-sighted one.

It is clear from soundings coming out of Fianna Fáil that Brian Cowen’s anointment angered many and made him the man to beat, as if he wasn’t already. What is also in little doubt is that Cowen will not end up as the sole candidate for the job once it becomes available with the likes of Dermot Ahern, Mary Hanafin, Michéal Martin and Brian Lenihan all clearly in the running.

So it’s clear that the leadership race will be heated and even divisive within a large and somewhat factional party already damaged by the exit of Ireland’s great uniter.

As a result, if Ahern steps aside after the 2009 election, or even later in 2010 or 2011, it will play completely into the hands of Fine Gael who will have (it is assumed) remained consistent all along. So the later Fianna Fáil make the messy but necessary change, the closer it is to a general election and the fresher the in-fighting and divisions are in party ranks and public perception. As well as this, it will leave the new leader with less time to ‘bed-in’ and develop a reputation for themselves as Taoiseach, making them slightly closer to Enda Kenny in terms of being an unknown quantity.

This will not be news to people in Fianna Fáil and if things go particularly badly for Ahern this week, despite the fact that there will be no single ’smoking gun’, it will be clear to his colleagues that he is on borrowed time and more of a burden than an asset.

A bad local/EU result in 2009 will not be wanted at any level within the party and if Ahern is seen as the greatest potential cause for it there will be no difficulty in doing away with him in early 2008, giving the new leader plenty of time to redecorate before any election is held, local or otherwise.

And here lies the Fine Gael and Labour dilemma; strike too hard and the gains you make now will be long forgotten by the time it matters. But hold back too much and you’ll be seen as an ineffective opposition by the sizable portion of the population that does not believe Ahern and thinks he should be held accountable.

Ideally for Fine Gael and Labour their strike will be just enough to make Ahern look uneasy to his party and the public, but not enough that there is a rush to drag him off stage. The longer Ahern stays the better it is for the opposition. Without doubt, having a fatally wounded rival around for another few months is worth a lot to Fine Gael but having a badly maimed one around for another three years is worth so much more.