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Pressure Grows on Ahern After Final Day of Testimony at Mahon
Read more about: Bertiegate, Fianna Fail, Irish Politics, Labour Party, Tribunals
Well there was more explosive stuff in there today than perhaps the other days put together. Bertie arrived in to tell them that he doesn’t remember driving Celia to the bank to pick up the money, though he does remember getting it from her. Yet Celia seems to think he drove her. The problem for Bertie is that this little turnaround is typical of what Mahon has thrown up so far. It seems that there are lots of little details that don’t hang together. There are glitches, inconsistencies and often times confusions that are playing into a wider perception that something is up.
Yet there has not been much movement on evidence which would nail the story one way or the other.
Ahern admitted that the formula his team put forward as a way of arguing against the $45,000 allegation didn’t work out. This proves nothing on the allegation he took $45,000 except to keep it alive as a logical possibility. There are many logical possibilities that remain alive due to the lack of clarity in the evidence and this is what is killing Ahern. The Business Post survey must surely suggest to the opposition that they have waited long enough to go after the Taoiseach and Eamon Gilmore is out this evening saying that the testimony is “not credible”. He is promising to raise the matter in the Dail in the interest of Accountability. The government might well suggest that the Tribunals will do that job but the longer this goes on and the more twists, turns and u-turns that are added to Ahern’s story mean that argument might not hold much water. Certainly when the opposition have polling data that suggests they are onto a winner it is unlikely they will leave it drop.
Yet the core issue for Ahern is that answers are not good enough to put the innuendo, the whiff, the intangible intuition, that there might be something askew to bed. He has failed to disarm an issue which now rumbles away in the background of all politics for the coming weeks. His own credibility is overshadowed not by evidence on corrupt payments but on the fact that his banking is bizarre and in three attempts to explain away large cash sums, he has failed to dispel doubts. One suspects that the moment is coming, if it has not arrived already, where the suspicions solidify whether evidence supports it or not. That moment is likely to coincide with the end of Bertie’s political career.
who can remember if they drove someone or not a year ago alone let alone 13 years. Most of the inconsistencies profiled as shocking in the media are bloody silly. Seriously who remembers these details. Sure their are questions to answer but if the questions they are spending time on is who drove who then this is a collasal waste of time.
I think the driving thing is important. Remember this was the rare period when Bertie actually had to drive — and if I remember right, someone once figured out that he didn’t even have a licence during that period. Of itself of course it seems trivial but Mahon is piling up these details that Bertie should remember but can’t. The indictment comes from his collective memory loss for that period, not one incident.
P can you remember the second time you ever drove? It would also have been a rare period at the time when you actually drove
I might remember if there was a briefcase full of cash and Celia Larkin in the car! But part of it is that Bertie now seems to have forgotten everything during this period. And the tribunal must be wondering why is Bertie now distancing himself even from Celia’s antiseptic version of events.
Cian,
In your piece you say “Ahern admitted that the formula his team put forward as a way of arguing against the $45,000 allegation didn’t work out. This proves nothing on the allegation he took $45,000 except to keep it alive as a logical possibility.”
Surely the fall of the Ahern teams formula doesnt just leave the $45,000 allegation as a logical possiblity but as an virtual certainty.
The following must be borne in mind: as the exchange rate at the time was ROUGHLY 2$ to 1£. The channce of the punt amount matching a $5000 increment is 2500/1.This increases by a factor of 50 when one looks at the pence amount.We are left therefore that there is only a 1 in 125,000 chance that this amount just happened to match the dollar conversion.This is the scenario we faced before the general election.
Days after we were told that the banks own records further lenghthened the odds.Every other checked Monday showed Sterling transactions outweighing all others by a factor of three excect one : you guessed it the one when the money was lodged.So maybe the bank made a mistake.
Ok so we’ll do a quick (conservative)calculation on this possibility presuming the tribunal looked at 3 years worth of Mondays.This further increases the odds by a factor of approx 150.The odds are now a whooping 18,750,000 to 1.If it were DNA evidence Mr Ahern could be convicted beyond resonable doubt.
The Tribunal of course does not have to seek findings beyond reasonable doubt but on the balance of probabilities.I further realise that my figures are a guide and not 100% accurate however they surely show that we and the Tribunal now have to regard the possibility that $45,000 was lodged as a certainty.
The formula doesn’t work? I better take back all the lead I bought so and get someone to take the philosophers stone off my hands.
Vincent Browne explains($) why the driving issue matters — Celia says she only remembers because Bertie told her –
Celia Larkin relied on the recollection of Bertie Ahern for her account of being driven to AIB on O’Connell Street in Dublin in January 1995 by Ahern, withdrawing IR£50,000, coming out of the bank and being driven back to Drumcondra by Bertie, where he lodged the money in his safe at St Luke’s. Although, according to Celia, this memory was prompted by Bertie’s recollection of what occurred, Bertie had no recollection at all of this at the tribunal