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PD Leader Must Choose Carefully
Read more about: Bertiegate, Coalition, Corruption, Democracy, Fianna Fail, Irish Election 2007, Irish Politics, Progressive Democrats
Why did Mary Harney resign as leader of the Progressive Democrats a couple of weeks ago, after fighting over the job just a couple of months earlier? I can’t help but wonder that perhaps she knew something bad about Ahern was in the offing, and one of the reasons that she chose not to continue to be PD leader was that she did not want to deal with the all the fallout?
The leader of the Progressive Democrats has to consider a few options:
If the PD leader Michael McDowell were to insist Bertie resigns, that will result in either the PDs being told that is not an option, which might force them to walk out of Government. Fianna Fáil would then govern with the support of Independent deputies—Jackie Healy Rae, Mildred Fox, soon-to-be Fianna Fáil member Niall Blaney, and the few other Independent deputies that would be of the Fianna Fáil gene-pool. In this case, the Progressive Democrats would be out in the wilderness, and would possibly face political oblivion for trying to force the issue in the first place.
Alternatively, McDowell could insist that Ahern has to go, and this could be accepted, in which case there would be a new Taoiseach, most likely Brian Cowen. This throws up the unknown quantity of Michael McDowell working with someone on record as not being a fan of the PDs—remember when he said “If in doubt, leave them out”?
What if McDowell decides to support Bertie? Remember his lamp-post climbing antics in the final days of the 2002 Election? “Single party government? No thanks”, was his mantra. How will the public react if the PDs, in the face of their coalition partner facing into their biggest crisis of this Government, support them, when in 2002 a fuss was made by McDowell about Fianna Fáil needing a watchdog?
If Mary Harney did get wind of something bad in the offing, she made a shrewd judgement in deciding it was not going to be something she wished to deal with as leader. Perhaps she thought that as Michael McDowell was so keen on being PD leader, he could deal with it himself? All idle speculation, of course, but I can’t help but wonder.
I think that post is spot on, i was mulling over precisely those scenarios and couldnt think of another. The PDs are between a rock and a hard place as much as bertie and the more i think about it the more i think it they will walk a tightrope and on wednesday we may well have the same government.
Your point about harney is an interesting piece of conjecture.
It also raises in my mind the question of how much of this the leaker foresaw when leaking-and precisely what was the main desired outcome (not making any assertions as to the identity of said leaker)
is this all a liz o donnel play. is she that crafty?
Simon - personally, I’d doubt it very, very much. She’s taken a back seat in Irish politics since 2002, and is seen by all to not have the hunger for it.
Tom what of the point that this is a bit of a ruse to show the PDS as tough without walking from government? Seems the fianna failers are thinking that big time
certain journalists in the country would be willing to talk up the pd line
Cian,
I’m a little puzzled; could you expand on that point? This supposed ruse: if so, who by? Also, the public can see clearly, I would hope, that the PDs are in this very impossible position as described, and that, if the case were otherwise, the party would censure Bertie with a great deal more vehemenence. Surely the PDs will be seen not as tough, but as spineless if they back Bertie on this.
Further, what journalists? You say it with an air of clandestine, so unless the e-mails are tapped too, an email will suffice. Unless I’ve misread the sentence’s tone, in which case, just say it here.
Today’s Irish Times says that bertie only brought up Manchester because he thought the IT already had the story. I wonder if the story has circulated for a while?
The Taoiseach, it is understood, revealed the existence of the Manchester money because he believed The Irish Times had information about it but was unable to publish the details.
Today, Irish Times editor Geraldine Kennedy and Public Affairs Correspondent Colm Keena will appear before a public hearing of the Mahon tribunal to answer questions on this newspaper’s report of the payments received by Mr Ahern.
Mary seeing into the future or knowing made me think of the leaker in that position. I dont think she is the leaker nor do i think she knew. The leaker however was the leaker and did know.
What was their aim in leaking it? What did they foresee as the outcome?
Perhaps ruse is the wrong word but certainly the PDs must both play their “watchdog” card and unless their design is to leave government, reamain onside with their government partners. That means not being the ones to force bertie out and be willing to deal with him on wednesday should the FF party remain loyal (which i suspect they will).
Surely the PDs will be seen not as tough, but as spineless if they back Bertie on this.
The ruse, if that is the word, to my mind is that they will try (and quite likely succeed) to have it both ways. Back bertie and retain some spine.
all im suggesting is that the PDs are reliant on the coverage of tonights manouevering in order to succeed in their tightrope walk between being tough and remaining in power.
Can you imagine what the State of the Nation might be today if McDowell had not climbed that tree?
A Fianna Fail overall majority!
Talk about the lunatics taking over the asylum.
As far as I am concerned, SOS, the lunatics have been in the asylum since 1997, and indeed, for the better part of my life (25 of 28 years), whether they be PD or FF.
the lunatics have been in the asylum since 1997
lol
The problem i find, to stretch the metaphor to tipping point, is that they are all lunatics
I would tend to disagree for the most part, Cian. Some individuals in the other parties are lunatics, but the FF gene-pool has a far greater degree of lunacy! It all depends on your world view, I suppose.
Kevin,
Stephen Collins would be PD-leaning, as would Madam. Sam Smyth has been known in the past to be a voice for what McDowell is really thinking (it’s been put a bit more directly than that before!).
Stephen Collins would be PD-leaning, as would Madam.
Collins wrote a book on them recently, called “Breaking the Mould”.
Madam is a former PD deputy, elected in 1987. She lost her seat in 1989.