Mayo “Unpredictable”

Last week’s headline-grabbing poll was in the Sunday Business Post and by now it’s only worth keeping chips in. However, Mayo was also subject to a number of polls at the weekend and is proving to be “unpredictable” at best. Two polls—Millard/Brown for the Mail and TNS/MRBI for TG4—suggest that the constituency is all to play for and Fine Gael’s high profile attempt to gain three seats is far from coming to fruition.

From the Western People:

What is clear, though, is that the Fianna Fáil vote has fractured around the county while the Fine Gael vote is holding firm at 50 per cent plus. The problem for Fine Gael is that the vast majority of their vote is shared between two candidates—Kenny and Ring. Fianna Fáil, on the other hand, have seen their vote collapse to just 25 per cent in the TG4 poll, a truly remarkable demise in the fortunes of a party that once held four out of six seats in Co Mayo. But there is a long road to be travelled in this election campaign and the findings of these two polls will count for little when next May rolls around. It’s a bit like league football—the winter results matters little when the summer championship begins. And each of the eleven candidates in Mayo will know that the championship fare is still a long way off. A lot can change in the interim.The opinion polls now point towards the retention of two seats by Fine Gael and a furious contest between four candidates for the last three seats.

The TG4 Poll: A total of 418 people responded to the survey with Fine Gael’s Michael Ring taking the lion’s share of the first preference votes on 24 per cent, followed closely by party leader Enda Kenny on 20 per cent.

Fianna Fáil candidate Dara Calleary comes in third in the poll with an 11 per cent share of number one votes. Polling the best of the Fianna Fáil candidates, the new Ballina-based runner outdoes party colleague John Carty, currently Fianna Fáil’s only sitting TD, who has nine per cent.

Independent contender Dr Jerry Cowley is on level par also with nine per cent while Independent Beverly Flynn and Sinn Féin’s Gerry Murray rank with six per cent of the vote.

Fine Gael and its party leader, Enda Kenny, will be particularly worried about the findings in both polls. The party had parachuted former GAA boss, John O’Mahony, into the field in the obvious hope of using his high profile to win a third seat in Mayo. But the strategy has not worked to date. O’Mahony failed to register a first preference vote in the Irish Mail on Sunday poll while he polled a lowly four per cent in the TG4 ballot paper. In fact, the Ballaghaderreen man was outpolled by Ballina-based Cllr Michelle Mulherin in both polls.

Mulherin had been seen as a ‘sweeper’ in some Fine Gael quarters following the convention earlier this year but she is now proving to be the party’s best chance of a third seat.