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Fianna Fáil to lose seat in Clare
Read more about: Clare, Fianna Fail, Polls
In an exclusive for The Clare Champion, Mairtin MacCormaic reveals that a private poll taken by Fianna Fáil shows that they could lose a seat in Clare in the next election. According to MacCormaic, the results of the poll were so devastating that the party has not shown them to party members and indeed has gone as far as to deny that they undertook the poll in the first place.
The poll reveals that Tony Killeen (FF) will top the poll followed by Pat Breen (FG). James Breen (Ind) is likely to retain his seat, but with a much reduced vote from his poll-topping performance of 2002. The final seat will be a dog fight between Fine Gael, the Green Party, and Senator Brendan Daly of Fianna Fáil, with Daly unlikely to have enough transfers to make it.
The poll was taken before Micheal McDowell became PD leader and before Bertie Ahern’s present difficulties arose.
Fianna Fáil currently hold two seats in Clare. Although Minister of State Síle de Valera retires this year Fianna Fáil are hoping to regain the 3rd seat which they lost in 2002.
Great another opinion poll - But even better a leaked one, of which we no nothing really about its size, who it sampled and so on. Brilliant. Irish journalism strikes another blow for political debate.
John,
Details of the size and make up of the sample are in the paper. I do not have it in front of me and it’s not online but my impression from reading it was that it was commissioned and carried out in the standard way. It was intended to be used as a morale booster for the party activists but it seemed to have backfired.
Apologies for the no.
Leaked polls seen by local journalists have to my mind zero credibility. The best example of this were two polls ’seen’ by the Meath Chronicle; one in relation to the 2002 General Election, the other the by-election, both of which were leaked with a particular agenda in mind, and probably never even existed in the first place.
People release poll results for a reason and with a particular spin in line, they don’t do so for the good of local journalism, and it is a pity that people attach any credibility to them. They are as valuable or as worhtless as any other piece of gossip.
the greens battling for the last seat??
John, agree with everything you say and I posted it in that spirit. Make of it what you will. The analysis in the Champion also covers the issues you raise about the credibility of the poll and the motivations behind the leak (pity it’s not online). What I take from it is an insight into the manouvering that’s going on within FF in Clare rather than reading too much into the actual figures.
ESargent, Brian Meaney is a high profile Green County Councillor in Clare and he could be in the shake up for the final seat. Remember the Bhamjee vote is still floating around there somewhere. I think it went to James Breen last time.
i dunno about zero credibility john, i agree that they must be sceptically read but obviously if your around you get the feeling of whether a poll sits well with the public attitude. If the poll is read by someone like me from outside clare then i havent a clue and in such a case ought be more sceptical
Another intersting constituency though
Love polls.